华北平原夏玉米花期前后高温时空分布及其对产量影响

    Spatiotemporal distribution of high temperatures before and after the flowering stage of summer maize and their impacts on yield in the North China Plain

    • 摘要: 为明确气候变化背景下华北平原夏玉米花期前后高温时空分布规律及对产量的影响,该研究利用华北平原340个气象站点的1981—2022年的逐日气象资料、19个农业气象观测站的发育期资料和已发表文献中的高温试验资料,以32、35、38 ℃为高温阈值,以高温累计度日(extreme growing degree days,EDD)和高温发生天数(extreme heat days,EHD)为指标分析华北平原夏玉米穗期(拔节−抽雄)和花粒期(抽雄−成熟)的高温时空分布特征,构建花期前后高温对夏玉米减产率影响方程,计算不同生育期各省份高温发生概率,定量评估花期前后高温对玉米产量的影响。研究结果表明:1)气候变暖背景下华北平原高温加剧。夏玉米生长季发生32、35、38 ℃及以上高温的EDD和EHD随年份均呈上升趋势(P<0.05),EDD倾向率分别为13.8、4.0和0.4 ℃·d /10a, EHD倾向率分别为4.0、2.3和0.4 d/10 a。2)夏玉米穗期EDD和EHD均呈现南多北少的分布;花粒期高温呈现西南多东北少的空间分布特征。穗期和花粒期高温呈增长趋势。以38 ℃为阈值温度时,穗期河南省北部显著增温,EDD和EHD每10年分别增加0.4 ℃·d和0.5 d;花粒期河南省南部和河北省任县显著增温,EDD和EHD的气候倾向率为0.4 ℃·d/10a和0.5 d/10a。3)花期前后发生32、35、38 ℃以上高温概率最大的省份均为河南省。华北平原当前主栽玉米品种高温危害阈值约为35 ℃,35 ℃以上危害积温每增加1 ℃·d,夏玉米减产率增加0.45%。2011—2020年,花期前后高温对河南省的影响尤为显著,河南省南部焦作等地和河南省东南部淮滨等地花期前后高温导致的玉米减产率约为2%~5%。研究结果为气候变暖背景下准确评估华北平原不同生育期夏玉米的高温风险与发展防灾减灾策略提供了科学依据。

       

      Abstract: This study aims to clarify the spatiotemporal distribution patterns of the summer maize at the flowering stage before and after high temperatures in the North China Plain (NCP). A systematic investigation was also made to explore their impacts on the yield under climate change. Daily meteorological data were collected from 340 meteorological stations in the NCP (1981-2022). Phenology data of the summer maize were captured from 19 agricultural meteorological stations, and the high-temperature experimental data were from public literature. High-temperature thresholds of 32 ℃, 35 ℃, and 38 ℃ were selected to calculate the high-temperature indicators, including the extreme growing degree days (EDD) and the extreme heat days (EHD). An analysis was then made on their spatiotemporal distribution during the tasseling and grain-filling stages of summer maize in the NCP. Furthermore, an equation was used to assess the impact of the high temperatures before and after the flowering stage on the yield reduction rate of summer maize. The probability of the high-temperature occurrence was also calculated in the different provinces during various growth stages. The results showed that: 1) The high temperatures in the NCP were intensified under the background of climate warming. There was an increasing trend (P<0.05) in the EDD and EHD more than 32 ℃, 35 ℃, and 38 ℃ during the growing season of summer maize. The increasing rates were 13.8 ℃·d/10a and 4.0 d/10a, 4.0 ℃·d/10a and 2.3 d/10a, and 0.4 ℃·d/10a and 0.4 d/10a, respectively. 2) The occurrence of the high temperatures during the tasseling stage followed a pattern of more in the south and less in the north. In the grain-filling stage, the high temperatures shared a spatial distribution of more in the southwest and less in the northeast. High temperatures during the tasseling and grain-filling stages showed an increasing trend over the past four decades. According to the threshold temperature of 38 ℃, the significant warming occurred in the northern Henan province, with the increase rates of 0.4 ℃·d and 0.5℃ d per 10 years, respectively, during the tasseling stage. Significant warming was also observed in the southern Henan province and Renxian County in Hebei province, with the increase rates of 0.4 ℃·d/10a and 0.5 d/10a for the EDD and EHD, respectively. 3) Henan Province was found with the highest probabilities of the high temperatures above 32 ℃, 35 ℃, and 38 ℃ before and after flowering. The impact threshold of the high temperature was approximately 35℃ for the main maize varieties in the NCP. For each 1 ℃·d increase in the accumulated harmful temperature more than 35 ℃, and then the yield reduction rate of the summer maize increased by 0.45%. Furthermore, the impact of the high temperatures before and after flowering was particularly significant in Henan Province in the 2010s. Yield reduction rates ranged between 2% and 5% in the southern part of the province, such as Jiaozuo, and Huaibin in the southeastern. The findings can also provide scientific support to accurately assess the high-temperature risks and disaster reduction strategies at different growth stages of summer maize in the NCP under climate change.

       

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