广东农村人口空心化与耕地撂荒耦合的时空特征及管控分区

    Spatio-temporal characteristics and control zones of the coupling of rural population hollowing-out and farmland abandonment in Guangdong Province of China

    • 摘要: 针对城镇化进程中农村人口空心化与耕地撂荒的协同演化问题,该研究以广东省域为例,运用耦合协调度模型和探索性时空数据分析方法,探测农村人口空心化与耕地撂荒之间的空间关联特征,揭示两者耦合关系的演变规律。在此基础上,进一步开展管控区划分析,并提出相应的治理策略。结果表明:1)研究期间,广东县域农村人口空心化形成了以珠三角为核心,向外围梯度升高的“核心—边缘”结构,并且呈现局部向全域扩散、珠三角向外围跃迁的扩散趋势。2)广东县域单元测算的农村人口空心化与耕地撂荒耦合协调度( CCDRH-CA)整体上以低度协调为主,在5个年份上的变化呈现向失调方向“增强—回落—增强”趋势。在空间格局上 CCDRH-CA形成了以珠三角区域为核心的“核心—边缘”的格局。3)在空间异质性、集聚性和动态变化特征上,广东县域单元 CCDRH-CA存在明显的正相关性,HH和LL空间集聚现象明显,并且空间集聚的稳定性突出。4)根据 CCDRH-CA及其空间集聚分析,识别出四种耕地治理管控类型区:正向协调区、负向失衡区、随机分散区和负向衰退区,并针对各类型区特征提出了相应的管控策略。广东农村人口空心化与耕地撂荒耦合关系呈现的“核心—边缘”空间结构,表现出显著的空间稳态特征。这一“人—地”关系格局的研究结论,可为优化耕地保护与治理政策提供重要参考。

       

      Abstract: Exploring the coupling relationship and patterns between rural depopulation and cropland abandonment can provide theoretical support for optimizing the relationship between people and land in rural areas, guiding the governance of cropland abandonment, and advancing food security and rural revitalization. Addressing the co-evolution of rural depopulation and cropland abandonment during urbanization, this study uses Guangdong Province as a case example. It first theoretically clarifies the conceptual frameworks of rural depopulation and cropland abandonment, measuring them respectively through population migration rates and cropland abandonment rates. Subsequently, a coupling coordination degree model and exploratory spatio-temporal data analysis were employed to further investigate the spatial correspondence between rural depopulation and farmland abandonment, revealing the characteristics of their coupling relationship and spatial evolution patterns. Finally, a bivariate local spatial autocorrelation method was employed to explore spatial clustering relationships. The lag relationship between the two systems was assessed based on the standardized difference between hollowing-out and abandonment indicators. Three indicators were selected: the coupling coordination degree of rural population hollowing-out and cropland abandonment (CCDRH-CA), the spatial agglomeration of "abandonment-hollowing-out," and the types of spatial lag. A comprehensive multi-factor method with linear weighting was employed to calculate the composite scores. Based on the results, management zoning analysis was conducted, and corresponding governance strategies were proposed.Results indicate: 1) During the study period, rural depopulation in Guangdong counties formed a “core-periphery” structure centered on the Pearl River Delta, with a gradient increase toward outer regions.It exhibited a diffusion trend spreading from localized to regional areas and leaping from the Pearl River Delta to surrounding areas, with an increasing number of counties facing challenges of population outflow and rural decline. The fallow rate of cultivated land in Guangdong's county units fluctuated from low to high and then back to low. Spatially, areas with low fallow rates shifted from northern Guangdong to eastern Guangdong and the Pearl River Delta. 2) The overall CCDRH-CA in Guangdong's county units remains predominantly low. Over the five years analyzed, it exhibits an “intensification-decline-intensification” trend toward imbalance. Spatially, CCDRH-CA forms a “core-periphery” pattern centered on the Pearl River Delta region. The Pearl River Delta region exhibits relatively favorable performance, with both indicators showing synchronized low-value changes and an expanding agglomeration trend. In contrast, the surrounding eastern, northern, and western regions of Guangdong demonstrate intensified hollowing-out coupled with declining farmland abandonment, revealing pronounced characteristics of coupling imbalance. 3) Regarding spatial heterogeneity, agglomeration, and dynamic characteristics, Guangdong's county-level CCDRH-CA exhibits strong positive correlations. HH and LL show pronounced spatial agglomeration with remarkable stability. Spatially dynamic CCDRH-CA demonstrates distinct spatiotemporal convergence and equilibrium traits, revealing strong path-dependent spatial patterns. 4) Based on CCDRH-CA, spatial aggregation patterns, and lag types, farmland governance control zones are classified into positive coordination zones, negative imbalance zones,random dispersion zones, and negative decline zones. Corresponding control strategies are proposed for each zone's characteristics. The coupled relationship between rural depopulation and cropland abandonment in Guangdong exhibits a “core-periphery” spatial structure with pronounced spatial stability. Findings on this “people-land” relationship pattern provide crucial insights for optimizing farmland protection and governance policies.

       

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