Abstract:
Exploring the coupling relationship and patterns between rural depopulation and cropland abandonment can provide theoretical support for optimizing the relationship between people and land in rural areas, guiding the governance of cropland abandonment, and advancing food security and rural revitalization. Addressing the co-evolution of rural depopulation and cropland abandonment during urbanization, this study uses Guangdong Province as a case example. It first theoretically clarifies the conceptual frameworks of rural depopulation and cropland abandonment, measuring them respectively through population migration rates and cropland abandonment rates. Subsequently, a coupling coordination degree model and exploratory spatio-temporal data analysis were employed to further investigate the spatial correspondence between rural depopulation and farmland abandonment, revealing the characteristics of their coupling relationship and spatial evolution patterns. Finally, a bivariate local spatial autocorrelation method was employed to explore spatial clustering relationships. The lag relationship between the two systems was assessed based on the standardized difference between hollowing-out and abandonment indicators. Three indicators were selected: the coupling coordination degree of rural population hollowing-out and cropland abandonment (CCD
RH-CA), the spatial agglomeration of "abandonment-hollowing-out," and the types of spatial lag. A comprehensive multi-factor method with linear weighting was employed to calculate the composite scores. Based on the results, management zoning analysis was conducted, and corresponding governance strategies were proposed.Results indicate: 1) During the study period, rural depopulation in Guangdong counties formed a “core-periphery” structure centered on the Pearl River Delta, with a gradient increase toward outer regions.It exhibited a diffusion trend spreading from localized to regional areas and leaping from the Pearl River Delta to surrounding areas, with an increasing number of counties facing challenges of population outflow and rural decline. The fallow rate of cultivated land in Guangdong's county units fluctuated from low to high and then back to low. Spatially, areas with low fallow rates shifted from northern Guangdong to eastern Guangdong and the Pearl River Delta. 2) The overall CCD
RH-CA in Guangdong's county units remains predominantly low. Over the five years analyzed, it exhibits an “intensification-decline-intensification” trend toward imbalance. Spatially, CCD
RH-CA forms a “core-periphery” pattern centered on the Pearl River Delta region. The Pearl River Delta region exhibits relatively favorable performance, with both indicators showing synchronized low-value changes and an expanding agglomeration trend. In contrast, the surrounding eastern, northern, and western regions of Guangdong demonstrate intensified hollowing-out coupled with declining farmland abandonment, revealing pronounced characteristics of coupling imbalance. 3) Regarding spatial heterogeneity, agglomeration, and dynamic characteristics, Guangdong's county-level CCD
RH-CA exhibits strong positive correlations. HH and LL show pronounced spatial agglomeration with remarkable stability. Spatially dynamic CCD
RH-CA demonstrates distinct spatiotemporal convergence and equilibrium traits, revealing strong path-dependent spatial patterns. 4) Based on CCD
RH-CA, spatial aggregation patterns, and lag types, farmland governance control zones are classified into positive coordination zones, negative imbalance zones,random dispersion zones, and negative decline zones. Corresponding control strategies are proposed for each zone's characteristics. The coupled relationship between rural depopulation and cropland abandonment in Guangdong exhibits a “core-periphery” spatial structure with pronounced spatial stability. Findings on this “people-land” relationship pattern provide crucial insights for optimizing farmland protection and governance policies.