叶孟亮, 聂继云, 徐国锋, 闫震, 郑丽静. 苹果中乙撑硫脲膳食摄入风险的非参数概率评估[J]. 农业工程学报, 2016, 32(1): 286-297. DOI: 10.11975/j.issn.1002-6819.2016.01.040
    引用本文: 叶孟亮, 聂继云, 徐国锋, 闫震, 郑丽静. 苹果中乙撑硫脲膳食摄入风险的非参数概率评估[J]. 农业工程学报, 2016, 32(1): 286-297. DOI: 10.11975/j.issn.1002-6819.2016.01.040
    Ye Mengliang, Nie Jiyun, Xu Guofeng, Yan Zhen, Zheng Lijing. Nonparametric probabilistic evaluation of ethylenethiourea dietary intake risk in apple[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering (Transactions of the CSAE), 2016, 32(1): 286-297. DOI: 10.11975/j.issn.1002-6819.2016.01.040
    Citation: Ye Mengliang, Nie Jiyun, Xu Guofeng, Yan Zhen, Zheng Lijing. Nonparametric probabilistic evaluation of ethylenethiourea dietary intake risk in apple[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering (Transactions of the CSAE), 2016, 32(1): 286-297. DOI: 10.11975/j.issn.1002-6819.2016.01.040

    苹果中乙撑硫脲膳食摄入风险的非参数概率评估

    Nonparametric probabilistic evaluation of ethylenethiourea dietary intake risk in apple

    • 摘要: 为明确国产苹果中乙撑硫脲残留水平及量化中国居民乙撑硫脲膳食摄入风险。基于渤海湾(辽宁、山东、河北)和西北黄土高原(陕西、山西、河南)两大苹果优势主产区采集的282份苹果样品,运用专业风险评估软件@Risk,尝试构建非参数概率评估模型,对中国居民乙撑硫脲膳食摄入风险进行概率评估。结果表明:参试的282份苹果样品,乙撑硫脲检出率为80.9%,残留量均值为6.1 μg/kg,最高残留量为74.1 μg/kg,绝大多数苹果样品(占90.4%)乙撑硫脲残留量<10.0 μg/kg。282份苹果样品中乙撑硫脲残留量的离散程度较大(变异系数达134.6%),不同省份变异系数排序,陕西(150.7%)>辽宁(146.8%)>河北(91.2%)>山东(88.1%)>河南(54.9%)>山西(51.8%)。不同年龄组人群膳食摄入风险存在明显差异,幼儿(2~6岁)和儿童(7~13岁)乙撑硫脲膳食摄入风险均明显高于青少年(14~17岁)和成年(18~59岁),为重点监控对象。总体而言,不同年龄组人群乙撑硫脲膳食摄入风险均很低,其中慢性膳食摄入风险介于0.35%~13.12%,急性膳食摄入风险介于0.22%~3.94%,均远低于100%;不同省份和不同主产区苹果乙撑硫脲膳食摄入风险虽存在明显差异,但均远低于100%,不同省份和不同主产区苹果乙撑硫脲膳食摄入风险也是可以接受的。基于最大残留限量估计值(estimate maximum residue limit, eMRL),建议中国苹果中乙撑硫脲最大残留限量值设为0.2 mg/kg。本研究可为苹果质量安全监管和今后系统开展果品质量安全风险评估提供有益借鉴和参考。

       

      Abstract: Food quality and safety risk assessment work is a recent development in China.Several studies on risk assessment of pesticide residues in fruits have been reported.The deterministic point estimation approach based on a single-point estimation (such as an average value or a high percentile) was the primary method in these studies.Using this method, dietary intake was evaluated by multiplying the mean agrochemical residual level and mean fruits consumption data.These numbers were easy to derive, but did not take into consideration the variation and uncertainty between individuals in the evaluation process.A nonparametric probabilistic evaluation model could better quantify the health risk for the general population by taking both variation and uncertainty into account.The outputs from Monte Carlo simulations can be specified at any percentile, making the calculation more intuitive and more convenient for evaluating the health risk in the general population.The probabilistic evaluation approach, therefore, is gradually becoming a focus of research into food quality and safety risk assessment in China.Dithiocarbamates (DTCs) are considered as one of the most important organosulfur compounds used as fungicides.These DTCs are widely used as non-systemic fungicides in agriculture and horticulture.Ethylenethiourea (ETU) is a toxicologically relevant degradation and/or biotransformation product of DTCs.It has been reported that ETU has caused cancer in experimental animals and may be carcinogenic in human, which should be considered in a consumer risk assessment.The professional risk assessment software @Risk, based on Monte Carlo simulations, was used to evaluate the dietary intake risk.First, data on the ETU residual content in 282 apple samples were collected for distribution fitting, which was checked by three statistical test methods - the Chi-Squared test, the Anderson-Darling test and the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test; the optimum fitting distribution was selected from the results.Simulations were performed with 10,000 iterations in the process of distribution fitting and with 10,000 simulation calculations for each population subgroups, ensuring that high percentile values would be more stable.The purpose was to ascertain ETU residue level in domestic apple and quantify the dietary intake risk for the general population consuming apple with ETU residues.A total of 282 apple samples were randomly collected from two main apple superior producing areas, including the Bohai bay (Liaoning, Shandong and Hebei) and the Northwest loess plateau (Shaanxi, Shanxi and Henan).To determine whether the human intake of ETU exceeded health safety limits, we evaluated toxicological endpoint values such as the acceptable daily intake (ADI) and acute reference dose (ARfD).The %ADI and %ARfD represented for chronic dietary intake risk and acute dietary intake risk, respectively.The results showed that the detectable rate of ETU was 80.9%, the average of residue contents was 6.1 μg/kg, the maximum residue content was 74.1 μg/kg, and the vast majority of ETU residual content of the 282 apple samples (90.4%) were lower than 10.0 μg/kg.The discrete degree of ETU residual content was large (134.6%) among 282 apple samples.Variation Coefficient of different provinces was in the following order: Shaanxi (150.7%)>Liaoning (146.8%)>Hebei (91.2%)>Shandong (88.1%)>Henan (54.9%)>Shanxi (51.8%).Difference of dietary intake risk in different age groups was clear, that the ETU dietary intake risks of the infants (aged 2 to 6) and children (aged 7 to 13) were significantly higher than that of teenagers (aged 14 to 17) and adults (aged 18 to 59), so they were the vital monitoring objects.But overall, the dietary intake risk for different age groups consuming apples was low in China, and chronic and acute dietary intake risk of ETU were 0.35%~13.12% (%ADI) and 0.22%~3.94% (%ARfD), respectively, which was far lower than 100%.Differences of dietary intake risk of different provinces and different main producing areas were obvious, but the dietary intake risk of ETU was still much lower than 100%, which was acceptable.Based on the eMRL, MRL of ETU in apples was proposed to be 0.2 mg/kg.This study will provide references for apple quality safety supervision and carrying out the work of fruits quality and safety risk assessment systemically in the future.

       

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