陈少丹, 张利平, 汤柔馨, 杨凯, 黄勇奇. 基于SPEI和TVDI的河南省干旱时空变化分析[J]. 农业工程学报, 2017, 33(24): 126-132. DOI: 10.11975/j.issn.1002-6819.2017.24.017
    引用本文: 陈少丹, 张利平, 汤柔馨, 杨凯, 黄勇奇. 基于SPEI和TVDI的河南省干旱时空变化分析[J]. 农业工程学报, 2017, 33(24): 126-132. DOI: 10.11975/j.issn.1002-6819.2017.24.017
    Chen Shaodan, Zhang Liping, Tang Rouxin, Yang Kai, Huang Yongqi. Analysis on temporal and spatial variation of drought in Henan Province based on SPEI and TVDI[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering (Transactions of the CSAE), 2017, 33(24): 126-132. DOI: 10.11975/j.issn.1002-6819.2017.24.017
    Citation: Chen Shaodan, Zhang Liping, Tang Rouxin, Yang Kai, Huang Yongqi. Analysis on temporal and spatial variation of drought in Henan Province based on SPEI and TVDI[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering (Transactions of the CSAE), 2017, 33(24): 126-132. DOI: 10.11975/j.issn.1002-6819.2017.24.017

    基于SPEI和TVDI的河南省干旱时空变化分析

    Analysis on temporal and spatial variation of drought in Henan Province based on SPEI and TVDI

    • 摘要: 近年来干旱在中国频发且影响不断加剧,因此监测干旱对气候变化、农业生产都有重要意义。基于1961-2016年56年的气象资料,利用标准化降水蒸散指数(SPEI)定量地分析了河南省不同时间尺度(1、3、6和12个月)的干旱发生的时空变化特征和强度;另外采用温度植被干旱指数(TVDI)分析了河南省的区域面积上的干旱空间变化,并探讨了SPEI和TVDI的相关性。结果表明:1961-2016年56 a间,SPEI值在各时间尺度上都呈微弱的湿润化,随着时间尺度的增大,SPEI值波动幅度减小;河南省各地区干旱分布不均匀,发生干旱年的是1961、1965、1966、1968、1972、1976、1978、1981、1986、1988、1997、2001、2013共13年,与实际情况较为一致。在月时间尺度上,SPEI与TVDI的相关性分析表明,SPEI-1与TVDI呈负相关关系,即TVDI越小,SPEI的值越大,干旱程度越轻;TVDI越大,SPEI的值越小,干旱程度越严重。研究结果可为河南省干旱影响评估提供参照标准。

       

      Abstract: Abstract: In the context of global warming, drought is the most complex and damaging natural disaster, which becomes more and more frequent, causing negative impacts on agriculture, water resources, natural ecosystems, and society activities. There are several kinds of drought indices derived from station-based meteorological data that are widely used for monitoring drought evolution, mainly including the Palmer drought severity index (PDSI), the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI). The SPEI not only considers precipitation and temperature data, but also integrates the sensitivity of PDSI to changes in evaporation demand and the simplicity of calculation and the multi-scale features of the SPI that identify different types of drought. Therefore, the SPEI was used to describe the drought severity determined by the difference between precipitation and potential evapotranspiration, based on the monthly meteorological data from 1961 to 2016 in Henan Province. And the regional SPEI was obtained at different time scales (1-, 3-, 6-, and 12-month) to characterize the dry or wet conditions in the study area. And the 1-month SPEI can clearly see the subtle changes of drought occurrence and reflect a short-term condition; the 3-month SPEI provides the seasonal drought occurrence; the 12-month SPEI reflects the drought variation at inter-annual time scales. In addition, the remote sensing method, which can provide large coverage, and multispectral and multitemporal observations from satellite sensors at various scales, is another method used to monitor drought conditions on a regional scale, especially in the areas with few meteorological stations. Numerous studies have suggested that a combination of surface temperature, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and land surface temperature (LST) can reveal information on the regional drought conditions. Here, the temperature vegetation dryness index (TVDI) based on the interpretation of the simplified NDVI-LST space for estimating drought conditions was selected to monitor drought conditions on a regional scale, and the moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) was used, which has many advanced characteristics such as wide spectral range, high temporal resolution and low cost. And the correlation between SPEI and TVDI was calculated. The results showed that SPEI was increasing slightly at different time scales during the period of 1961-2016, indicating that Henan was getting more humid. As the time scale increased, the amplitude of the SPEI decreased. However, the distribution in Henan has been uneven. Annually, droughts occurred in 1961, 1965, 1966, 1968, 1972, 1976, 1978, 1981, 1986, 1988, 1997, 2001 and 2013. Moreover, drought frequency was selected to calculate the probability of drought occurrence. During the period of 1961-2016, Zhengzhou had the highest frequency (33.10%), followed by Xinyang and Luanchuan (32.14% and 31.55%, respectively), whereas Luoyang and Xihua had the lowest frequency (25.10% and 25.30%, respectively). Correlation analysis between monthly TVDI and SPEI showed that there existed negative relationship between 1-month SPEI and TVDI, and as TVDI got smaller, SPEI became higher, reflecting that the severity of drought was lighter, and conversely drought would aggravate as TVDI got larger and SPEI became lower. Therefore, our study on the relationship between SPEI and TVDI can provide a scientific basis for early warning and risk management of water resources and agricultural production.

       

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