Abstract:
In order to study the influence mechanism of drought change on spring maize yields in Northeast China, the standard precipitation index (SPI) was selected as the drought evaluation index. The relative meteorological standardized yield residuals series (SYRS) was computed by using the series of spring maize yields in Northeast China and combined with drought disaster rate of spring maize to analyze the variation characteristics of drought and the yields, and the variation characteristics of the effect of growing season drought on spring maize yields. The research showed that: 1) The fluctuation of yields was caused by the fluctuation of precipitation in the interannual changes. The spring maize output per unit area was separated into trend yield and meteorological yield, and the separation efficiency was in a high level. The average of relative meteorological yield μ was less than 0.0028 and the standard deviation of relative meteorological yield σ was less than 0.16. Degree of drought and the years of drought in Liaoning and Inner Mongolia province were more than that in Heilongjiang and Jilin province. There was a negative correlation coefficient between the percentages of precipitation departure and suffering disaster rate by drought. The suffering disaster rate by drought during 2000 to 2010 were much heavy than any other periods in the four province. 2) There were few drought years from the 1980s to the mid 1990s while the more drought years from the late 1990s to 2015, and the variation trend of SPI6 was the same as the percentage of precipitation departure from April to September. The correlation coefficient between SPI and the percentage of precipitation was larger than 0.99 in the five years during 1999 to 2004. 3) The relative meteorological standardized yield residuals series from low values (less than -2.0) to high values (larger than 2.0) in Heilongjiang, Jilin and Inner Mongolia before 2000, which was high in the middle and later 1990s. And the SYRS was in a normal to higher level from 2010 to 2015 in Northeast China. The variation amplitude of SYRS in Liaoning was larger than that of other three provinces. 4) The correlation coefficient between SPI and the suffering disaster rate by drought was negative. Especially, the slope fitting by SPI less than or equal to -0.5 was much high than that fitting by all SPI6. The SPI6 and relative meteorological standardized yield residuals series were conformed to the downward quadratic parabola trend in the Northeast China. The largest suffering disaster rate by drought in Heilongjiang province was approximately 30%, which was much less than other three provinces, while the suffering disaster rate by drought was exceed 60% in Jilin and Liaoning. When there was normal or more precipitation, the yield would reach a high level; while the SPI6 was drought or wet, the yield would reach a low level. There was eight years of standardized yield residuals series less than -0.5, and the percentage of precipitation departure was 17% more than normal in all these eight years. Meanwhile, ≥10℃ accumulated temperature departure was -38 to -185 (℃·d) less than normal in seven years. It means more precipitation and less accumulated temperature would decrease yield loss.