Abstract:
Land-use/land-cover (LULC) changes are considered as a key issue of global changes, which is influencing and altering ecosystem structures and services at different scales. Understanding LULC changes and its ecological effects is important to enhance ecosystem sustainability and maintain ecological security. Since ancient times, the Ebinur Lake Basin was the main road of traffic in Europe and Asia. Early in the north of the "Silk Road", which was opened by the Tang Dynasty, it was passed through the Tianshan Mountains to Europe. Now it is an important grain base, cotton base, animal husbandry base and petrochemical base in Northern Xinjiang. It is a typical arid area with sensitivity environment. With the rapid urbanization and economic development in recent years, this area increasingly faces a serial of environmental challenges, including LULC changes, pollutions, biodiversity decrease, and land deterioration, etc. Thus, the study on LULC changes and its ecological effects in the Ebinur Lake Basin was significant to regional ecosystem management. The intensifying human activities are becoming more and more significant to the ecological system of oasis in arid areas. It is of great significance to assess the dynamic changes of the ecosystem services in the watershed on the scale of time and space, which is of great significance to the sustainable development of the basin. We took the Ebinur Lake Basin(43°38′-45°52′N, 79°53′-85°02′E), located in northwestern Xinjiang as the study area, and extracted the land use data based on the TM and OLI remote sensing images of 1996, 2006 and 2016. The spatial and temporal dynamic changes of land use and ecosystem services in the Ebinur Lake Basin were analyzed, and the value of ecological service value equivalent was used to estimate the value of ecosystem services. The Logistic regression model was used to analyze the driving forces of land use and ecosystem service value change. The results showed that : 1) During 1996-2016, the area of cultivated land and construction land in the Ebinur Lake basin significantly increased, the proportion from 8.47% and 0.42% in 1996 to 15.28% and 2.07% in 2016, and forestland, grassland, wet land and water area were on the decline. 2) During 1996-2016, the total ecosystem service value in the study area has been decreasing continuously, and reduction amounts were about 85.863×108 Yuan. The ESV value of land use types, such as cultivated land, construction land, salinized land and sandy land, had an increasing trend, and the forest land, grassland, water area, wet land and unused land were all hand a decreasing trend. Among them, the change of ESV of the forest land was more evident, accounting for more than 50% of the total ESV. 3) During the 21years, the area with higher ESV in the Ebinur Lake Basin gradually decreased, the area with lower ESV gradually increased, and the area with middle ESV decreased first and then increased. 4) The regression analysis showed that the main driving factors affecting the ESV changes in the Ebinur Lake Basin were the comprehensive urbanization rate, the population density and Temperature and precipitation. In the future economic development, the Ebinur Lake Basin should rationally optimize the land use pattern, guarantee the sustained stable and coordinated development of ecosystem, and realize sustainable development of the economy-society and ecology.