谭倩, 王淑萍, 张田媛. 基于实证数学规划模型的农业水价政策效应模拟[J]. 农业工程学报, 2019, 35(16): 161-171. DOI: 10.11975/j.issn.1002-6819.2019.16.018
    引用本文: 谭倩, 王淑萍, 张田媛. 基于实证数学规划模型的农业水价政策效应模拟[J]. 农业工程学报, 2019, 35(16): 161-171. DOI: 10.11975/j.issn.1002-6819.2019.16.018
    Tan Qian, Wang Shuping, Zhang Tianyuan. Simulation of effects of agricultural water price policy based on positive mathematical programming[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering (Transactions of the CSAE), 2019, 35(16): 161-171. DOI: 10.11975/j.issn.1002-6819.2019.16.018
    Citation: Tan Qian, Wang Shuping, Zhang Tianyuan. Simulation of effects of agricultural water price policy based on positive mathematical programming[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering (Transactions of the CSAE), 2019, 35(16): 161-171. DOI: 10.11975/j.issn.1002-6819.2019.16.018

    基于实证数学规划模型的农业水价政策效应模拟

    Simulation of effects of agricultural water price policy based on positive mathematical programming

    • 摘要: 水价政策的合理制定对水资源高效利用意义重大。水价政策的决策过程往往主观性过强,缺乏水价政策效应的量化研究方法。针对多水源多灌溉方式下的农业灌区,基于实证数学规划方法构建农业水价政策效应模拟方法。将建立的方法应用于甘肃省民勤县进行实证研究,分别模拟了3种水价政策下用水效益、灌溉用水量、种植占地和节水灌溉工程面积等对水价上涨的响应机制,分析了不同政策下的水价上涨阈值和不同水价水平下的适宜政策。结果表明:在单一水价和两部制水价政策下,民勤县农业水价宜处于0.24~2.10元/m3之间;在差别水价政策下,水价宜处于0.24~1.50元/m3之间;当计量部分水价低于2.10元/m3或高于6元/m3时,差别水价政策的综合效益最高;当计量部分水价在2.10~6元/m3之间时,单一水价政策最为理想;实行差别水价政策且计量部分水价为1.50元/m3时取得的单方水效益最高。该文证实了民勤县目前实行的差别水价政策是适宜的,水价的稳步上涨不会降低用水的综合效益,但应在水价上调的同时考虑当地实际情况,且注意加大对节水灌溉工程的投入和建立配套的农户收入补贴政策。该文建立的农业水价政策效应模拟方法具有较广泛的适用性。

       

      Abstract: Rational water price policy is of great significance for the efficient use of water resources. However, development processes of water price policy are mostly subjective and few methods are suitable to quantify policy effects. In this study, we focused on irrigation areas with multiple water sources and irrigation techniques. A method based on positive mathematical programming (PMP) was proposed to simulate the impacts of agricultural water price policy on economic benefits of water use, irrigation water consumption, planting land occupation and water-saving irrigation area. This method was applied to address a case in Minqin County, Gansu Province. Under the current water price policy of the study area, the model was calibrated with the actual data in 2015, the absolute value of the difference between the optimal solution of the calibrated model and the actual planting area in the base year didn’t exceed 1.3×10-3 hm2, indicating that the model was reliable to simulate the effect of water price policy. Subsequently, the model was used to simulate the change trend of index with the rise of water price under the volumetric water price policy, the 2-part water price policy and the differential water price policy. The simulation results showed that, with the rise of water price, the change trend of index under 3 water price policy was similar: the farmer income reduced, the irrigation water consumption and planting area reduced first and then stabilized, the water-saving irrigation area increased, and the benefit per cubic meter of water increased first and then decreased. Simultaneously, in response to rising water price, farmers tended to reduce the planting area of food crops first and then the area of cash crops to alleviate the loss of income. Based on the simulation results, the water price threshold under different policies and the scope of application of various policies were further analyzed, and the following conclusions were drawn. Under the volumetric water price and the 2-part water price policy, the water price should be between 0.24 yuan/m3-2.10 yuan/m3; under the differential water price policy, the water price should be between 0.24-1.50 yuan/m3; when the metering part of the water price was lower than 2.10 yuan/m3 or higher than 6 yuan/m3, the comprehensive benefit of the differential water price policy was the highest; when the metering part of the water price was between 2.10 yuan/m3 and 6 yuan/m3, the volumetric water price policy was the most ideal; when the differential water price policy was implemented and the metering part of the water price was 1.50 yuan/m3, the benefit per cubic meter of water was the highest. This paper confirmed that the steady increase of water price would not reduce the comprehensive benefits of water use, but increase the benefit per cubic meter of water. The differential water price policy currently implemented in Minqin County was appropriate. In the future, in Minqin County, the water price under the differential water price policy should be increased within the range of 0.24-1.50 yuan/m3. Moreover, during the course of water price rising in the study area, special attentions should be paid to increase investment in water-saving irrigation projects and farmer income subsidy policies should be established under local contexts. Based on the conclusions of this study, various local factors and evaluation indexes such as current water price, farmers' willingness to pay, government financial subsidies, and income from water supply projects, could be comprehensively considered to obtain detailed implementation plan of water price policy. The method established in this paper was also applicable to other areas with similar problems.

       

    /

    返回文章
    返回