孙迪, 杨仁杰, 李梦婷, 牟美睿, 李明堂, 张克强, 赵润. 春秋季对近红外光谱模型预测奶牛场粪水氮磷含量结果的影响[J]. 农业工程学报, 2020, 36(10): 197-205. DOI: 10.11975/j.issn.1002-6819.2020.10.024
    引用本文: 孙迪, 杨仁杰, 李梦婷, 牟美睿, 李明堂, 张克强, 赵润. 春秋季对近红外光谱模型预测奶牛场粪水氮磷含量结果的影响[J]. 农业工程学报, 2020, 36(10): 197-205. DOI: 10.11975/j.issn.1002-6819.2020.10.024
    Sun Di, Yang Renjie, Li Mengting, Mu Meirui, Li Mingtang, Zhang Keqiang, Zhao Run. Influences of spring and autumn on the nitrogen and phosphorus contents of the slurry predicted by near-infrared spectrum model on dairy farms[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering (Transactions of the CSAE), 2020, 36(10): 197-205. DOI: 10.11975/j.issn.1002-6819.2020.10.024
    Citation: Sun Di, Yang Renjie, Li Mengting, Mu Meirui, Li Mingtang, Zhang Keqiang, Zhao Run. Influences of spring and autumn on the nitrogen and phosphorus contents of the slurry predicted by near-infrared spectrum model on dairy farms[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering (Transactions of the CSAE), 2020, 36(10): 197-205. DOI: 10.11975/j.issn.1002-6819.2020.10.024

    春秋季对近红外光谱模型预测奶牛场粪水氮磷含量结果的影响

    Influences of spring and autumn on the nitrogen and phosphorus contents of the slurry predicted by near-infrared spectrum model on dairy farms

    • 摘要: 为研究季节因素对规模化奶牛场粪水氮磷含量及其近红外光谱模型预测结果的影响,该研究采集了天津市春秋双季27家规模化奶牛场粪水处理全过程的250个粪水样品,解析了季节对粪水氮磷含量分布特征的影响,同时采集了所有样品的近红外光谱并进行主成分分析。采用偏最小二乘法(Partial Least Squares,PLS)建立了粪水氮磷季节内预测模型,包括春秋单季和双季融合模型以及季节间的相互预测模型。结果表明,粪水氮磷含量随季节变化呈现出差异性,季节内模型总体的预测效果较好,优于季节间模型;其中春季模型表现最佳,验证相关系数分别为0.98和0.90,剩余预测偏差(Residual Predictive Deviation,RPD)分别为4.67和2.03。研究表明,季节因素对粪水中氮磷含量的模型预测结果存在不同程度的影响,该研究可为建立全季节要素的综合模型提供依据。

       

      Abstract: Returning to the field was the optimal way out for the great deal of slurry from dairy farms in China at the moment. Nitrogen and phosphorus were important nutrient measurable indicators. Variation in nitrogen and phosphorus content was influenced by many natural factors involved in temperature, wind speed, and rainfall so that it was hard to quickly and accurately quantify, leading to the difficulty of returning the slurry to the field. Therefore, aimed at learning the influence of typical seasonal factors on the variation of nitrogen and phosphorus contents in the slurry of large-scale dairy farms together with the prediction results of near-infrared spectroscopy models, it was significantly meaningful that provide the basis of setting up the testing method and standard system for guiding them safely and scientifically returning the slurry to the field. 250 slurry samples were gathered in the whole process of slurry treatment from 27 large-scale dairy farms in Tianjin both in spring and autumn. The influence of season on the distribution characteristics of chemical values of nitrogen and phosphorus in the slurry was analyzed, meanwhile the near-infrared spectra of the whole samples were collected and subjected to the principal component analysis. Then the Partial Least Squares (PLS) was used to establish the seasonal models that involved the spring model, autumn model, and mixed model of both, as well as the demi-season models for the quantified analysis of the nitrogen and phosphorus contents in the slurry. The results showed that the nitrogen and phosphorus contents of the samples appeared varying degrees of variability with seasonal changes. In the seasonal models, the Root Mean Squared Error of prediction set (RMSEP) of three Total Nitrogen (TN) models was 338.26, 334.23, and 382.29 mg/L, respectively. The correlation coefficients of calibration set (Rp) was 0.98, 0.94, and 0.96, respectively. The Residual Predictive Deviations (RPD) was 4.67, 2.83, and 3.56, respectively. RMSEP of three Total Phosphorus (TP) models was 20.04, 22.73, and 23.51 mg/L, respectively. Rp was 0.90, 0.81 and 0.83, respectively. RPD was 2.03, 1.68, and 1.80, respectively. As a whole, the spring model showed a better result than the autumn model, which highlighted the effect of seasonal influence on the prediction. RMSEP of two TN models for mutual prediction between spring and autumn was 934.57 and 845.82 mg/L, respectively. Rp was 0.97 and 0.92, respectively. RPD was 2.28 and 2.58, respectively. RMSEP of two TP models for mutual prediction between spring and autumn was 50.06 and 24.81 mg/L, respectively. Rp was 0.84 and 0.48, respectively. RPD was 0.94 and 1.64, respectively. The overall effect of the demi-season model was inferior compared to the seasonal models. And the performance of the demi-season model was too poor to be used for the determination of nitrogen and phosphorus content in the slurry. In summary, the interior seasonal model of nitrogen and phosphorus in the slurry was superior to the demi-season model and the prediction results of the nitrogen and phosphorus model in the slurry were influenced by the seasonal factors. All the results indicated that the nitrogen and phosphorus contents of slurry were influenced by the seasons. Further objective would be designed to establish the comprehensive forecast models with overall seasonal elements to enhance the feasibility and stability of models that providing the technical support for the development of portable measurement facilities, breaking through the dilemma of quantified analysis under the complicated situation in numerous intensive dairy farms, leading to the slurry recycling back to the field in safely and scientifically meanwhile controlling over the environmental pollution risk.

       

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