Abstract:
Abstract: Land use/land cover change (LUCC) is one of the important driving forces of ecosystem services change. Because ecosystem services depend on different ecological and geographical processes on different spatial and temporal scales, it is of great significance to study ecosystem services based on LUCC. In recent years, the LUCC in the Lower Yellow River has changed obviously, which has a huge impact on the regional ecological environment. Strengthening the research on the land use and Ecosystem Services Value (ESV) can effectively promote the protection of the ecological environment in the Lower Yellow River, which is of great significance for the sustainable development of the whole Yellow River basin ecosystem. Based on the land use classification data of the Lower Yellow River from 1990 to 2015, using the land use change degree and land use transfer matrix, this paper explored the spatiotemporal distribution of land transfer change, and used the equivalent factor method, hot spot analysis and focus model to explore the spatiotemporal evolution and spatial heterogeneity of the county ecosystem service value in the Lower Yellow River. The results showed that: 1) During 1990-2015, the area of farmland, grassland and unused land decreased by 2 894, 1 476 and 856 km2 respectively, and the area of built-up land increased by 4598 km2. Farmland was the main contributor of the increase of built-up land. 2) From the perspective of spatiotemporal scale, the ESV of the Lower Yellow River decreased by1.885 billion yuan in 25 years, and the areas with higher average ESV decreased gradually, while the areas with lower average ESV increased gradually. The ESV at the county level changed obviously, and most of the regions showed a downward trend. Sensitivity analysis showed that the ESV of the Lower Yellow River was inelastic to the value coefficient. Even though the value coefficient was uncertain, the calculation of ecosystem services in the whole study area was still stable, which could prove that the research results were credible. 3) From 1990 to 2015, the spatial concentration degree of the high value and low value areas of average ESV in the Lower Yellow River was obvious, but there was a trend of gradual weakening. The barycenter of ESV was located in Yuncheng County, Shandong Province. The ecosystem service value of Shandong Province was always higher than Henan Province. 4)The spatial differentiation of ecosystem service value in the lower reaches of the Yellow River was influenced by the interaction of natural factors, social factors and economic factors, and was the result of the interaction of different driving factors, among which the human comprehensive impact index has the greatest impact on the spatial differentiation of ecosystem service. Therefore, the ecological protection of the Yellow River should strengthen the protection of the vulnerable areas of the ecosystem, strengthen the construction of regional ecological barriers, build the evaluation system of the coordinated development of the ecological economy, and realize the high-quality development of the ecological economy in the Lower Yellow River.