刘浏, 王宣宣, 牛乾坤, 伦玉蕊, 程湫雅, 程磊, 徐宗学. 雅鲁藏布江流域陆地水储量变化特征及归因[J]. 农业工程学报, 2021, 37(14): 135-144. DOI: 10.11975/j.issn.1002-6819.2021.14.015
    引用本文: 刘浏, 王宣宣, 牛乾坤, 伦玉蕊, 程湫雅, 程磊, 徐宗学. 雅鲁藏布江流域陆地水储量变化特征及归因[J]. 农业工程学报, 2021, 37(14): 135-144. DOI: 10.11975/j.issn.1002-6819.2021.14.015
    Liu Liu, Wang Xuanxuan, Niu Qiankun, Lun Yurui, Cheng Qiuya, Cheng Lei, Xu Zongxue. Evolution characteristic of terrestrial water storage change and its attribution analysis over the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering (Transactions of the CSAE), 2021, 37(14): 135-144. DOI: 10.11975/j.issn.1002-6819.2021.14.015
    Citation: Liu Liu, Wang Xuanxuan, Niu Qiankun, Lun Yurui, Cheng Qiuya, Cheng Lei, Xu Zongxue. Evolution characteristic of terrestrial water storage change and its attribution analysis over the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering (Transactions of the CSAE), 2021, 37(14): 135-144. DOI: 10.11975/j.issn.1002-6819.2021.14.015

    雅鲁藏布江流域陆地水储量变化特征及归因

    Evolution characteristic of terrestrial water storage change and its attribution analysis over the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin

    • 摘要: 为准确识别高寒缺资料地区长序列陆地水储量变化特征及归因,该研究选取青藏高原东南部的雅鲁藏布江流域为研究区,基于2003-2017年的GRACE(Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment)重力卫星数据,结合欧洲中期天气预报中心的第五代产品ERA5(the fifth-generation reanalysis product of the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts)再分析资料和GLDAS(Global Land Data Assimilation System)陆面同化数据,开展青藏高原东南部地区陆地水储量变化研究。分别使用ERA5和GLDAS两套数据集,采用水量平衡法和组分相加法两种方法,将反演的4套陆地水储量结果与GRACE反演的陆地水储量变化(Terrestrial Water Storage Change,TWSC)进行对比分析。结果表明:基于GLDAS的组分相加法反演的陆地水储量变化与GRACE反演的结果最为一致。因此,基于GLDAS数据集,采用组分相加法进一步探究雅鲁藏布江流域长序列(1948-2017年)陆地水储量的时空演变规律。在1948-2017年期间,TWSC呈现显著增加的趋势,但是在2002年左右发生了突变,即2002年之前呈现极显著增加的趋势(0.024 mm/月,P<0.01),2002年之后呈现极显著减少的趋势(-0.397 mm/月,P<0.01)。进一步归因分析表明,2002年前后土壤含水量和雪水当量的变化趋势与陆地水储量变化的趋势一致。然而,2002年前后土壤含水量的变化对陆地水储量变化的贡献率分别为61%和99%,对陆地水储量变化起主导作用。在空间分布上,TWSC呈现出较大的空间异质性,主要体现在人类活动强度较高的"一江两河"地区和冰川分布集中的帕隆藏布地区。研究结果可为探究气候变化背景下青藏高原水储量时空演变机理提供可靠的参考方法和数据支持。

       

      Abstract: Abstract: The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau has been greatly sensitive to global climate change in recent years, particularly the change in water storage. However, the differences in multi-source data and calculation have caused great uncertainty in the accurate estimation of terrestrial water storage. Taking the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin located in the southeast of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau as the study area, this study aims to investigate the spatio-temporal variation characteristics of terrestrial water storage change (TWSC). The performance evaluation of TWSC was conducted using the GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) data from 2003 to 2017, combining with ERA5 (the fifth-generation reanalysis product of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) data and GLDAS (Global Land Data Assimilation System) data. Four sets of TWSC were obtained using ERA5 data and GLDAS data from 2003 to 2017, where the terrestrial water balance (PER) and the summation (SS) were used to estimate TWSC, compared with TWSC derived from GRACE. It was found that TWSC estimated by the SS was more consistent than the PER in both temporal and spatial patterns with TWSC derived from GRACE, whereas, TWSC estimated by the SS using GLDAS was most consistent with the results from GRACE over the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin. A sensitivity analysis was carried out using GLDAS and the SS, in order to further investigate the influence of different components on the estimation of TWSC. It was found that SS (GLDAS) performed best for TWSC estimation over the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin, when only soil moisture and snow water equivalent were taken into consideration, with the basin average TWSC correlation coefficient of 0.53. Therefore, the SS calculated from the soil moisture and snow water equivalent was utilized to further explore the long-term temporal and spatial evolution of TWSC from 1948 to 2017 over the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin. TWSC showed a significantly increasing trend from 1948 to 2017. The wavelet analysis indicated that there was an abrupt change in TWSC around 2002 during 1948-2017. There was a significant increase before 2002 (slope=0.024 mm/month, P<0.01), and a significant decrease (slope=?0.397 mm/month, P<0.01) after 2002. The change trend of soil water content and snow water equivalent before and after 2002 is consistent with TWSC. Additional attribution analysis was performed on the abrupt change in TWSC before and after 2002. The contributions of changes in soil moisture and snow water equivalent to TWSC were 61% and 39% during 1948-2002, respectively, whereas, a much more significant domination of soil moisture was identified during 2003-2017. The contributions of changes in soil moisture and snow water equivalent to TWSC were 99% and 1%, respectively. Compared with the change in snow water equivalent, the change in soil moisture dominated the long-term variation of TWSC during 1948-2017. In terms of spatial distribution, TWSC showed a large spatial heterogeneity, mainly in the middle reaches with a high intensity of human activities and the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin with intensive glaciers. The finding can provide reliable data support to explore the spatio-temporal evolution of terrestrial water storage in data-scarce alpine regions.

       

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