中国耕地价格区划的建立与验证

    Establishment and verification of the regionalization of cultivated land price in China

    • 摘要: 研制中国耕地价格区划是规范中国耕地市场交易机制,防控农地过度资本化的重要前提。该研究基于价格指引、综合主导、县区独立等原则,从自然禀赋、社会利用、经济环境3个维度,选取光温、降水、地形、耕作制度以及地区生产总值5个影响因子,结合地理空间信息技术,间接划分中国耕地价格区划;并充分考虑专家经验,综合山脉、水系、行政边界等主要地理界线分布,调整区划结果;最终基于耕地质量经济平均等别与样点县耕地价格数据,进一步验证与调整耕地价格区划。结果表明:1)耕地价格区划综合指数与耕地质量等别具有较高吻合度,且90.72%的均质区域通过样点县耕地价格的一致性检验,最终将全国划分为225个均质区域。2)在价格样本无法覆盖整体区域的条件下,基于耕地价格影响因素与有限耕地价格样点研制中国耕地价格区划具有可行性。3)耕地价格整体上呈现出西部低、中部居中、东部高的阶梯型分布态势。未来需建立覆盖各层级耕地价格的长效动态监测机制,防止农地要素过度资本化,以保障粮食安全、推进农业现代化和乡村振兴战略。

       

      Abstract: Abstract: Agricultural zoning on arable land price is an important prerequisite to standardize the trading order of the land market, further to prevent overcapitalization. The price zoning of cultivated land can also meet the requirements of national strategies, such as food security and the regional layout of agriculture, particularly under the context of agricultural modernization and rural revitalization in China. However, it is still lacking in the regionalization of the cultivated land price at present. In this study, a systematic framework was constructed to explore the influence factors of the arable land price using the principles of price guidance, comprehensive leadership, county independence, and spatial continuity, especially from three dimensions of natural endowment, social utilization, and economic environment. Five influencing factors were selected, including ≥10 ℃ accumulation temperature, annual average precipitation, altitude, the first-level division of standard farming system, and regional gross domestic product. The data of each factor in one-kilometer grid unit was superimposed, according to geospatial information technology. In the integrity of the county unit, the average of all grid attributes in the county unit was assigned to county units to preliminarily divide price zoning of arable land. The expert experience was fully considered to integrate the distribution of major geographical boundaries, including mountains, water systems, and administrative boundaries. The quantitative zoning was slightly artificially corrected to avoid inconsistencies with experience and cognition, as well as excessive fragmentation of zoning. Finally, the homogeneous area was further verified using the economic average grade of cultivated land quality and the price data in sample counties. The price zoning of cultivated land was determined using the homogeneous area division and the price of samples. The results showed that: 1) The comprehensive index of cultivated land price zoning presented a high-level agreement with the economic average of cultivated land quality, where 90.72% of homogeneous areas passed the consistency test of cultivated land price in sample counties. The national cultivated land price was divided into 225 homogeneous regions after superposition, adjustment, and verification. The number of homogeneous regions in each province was roughly 3-11, where each province was divided into 7 homogeneous regions on average. 2) If the price samples cannot cover the entire area, it was feasible to indirectly divide the cultivated land price zoning using the influencing factors and the limited samples. 3) The price of arable land was generally low in the west, middle in the middle, and high in the east. It is necessary to establish a long-term dynamic monitoring system in the future, particularly covering all levels of cultivated land prices, further to prevent excessive capitalization of agricultural land elements. This finding can provide sound support to food security, agricultural modernization, and rural revitalization.

       

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