西北地区降雨集中度时空演变及其影响因素

    Temporal and spatial evolution of rainfall concentration and its influencing factors in Northwest China

    • 摘要: 在全球气候变化背景下,深入研究中国西北地区降雨集中度时空演变规律具有重要的现实意义。该研究基于1960-2017年逐月栅格降雨数据,利用Mann-Kendall趋势检验方法、Mann-Kendall突变点检验方法、Morlet小波方法和冷热点分析方法分析了西北地区降雨集中度的时空变化特征,并通过交叉小波变换探讨大气环流因子变化与降雨集中度的关系,同时讨论地貌分布对降雨集中度的影响。结果表明:1)在1960-2017年,西北地区及其3个子区域的降雨集中度平均值呈现减少趋势,且存在显著突变点(P<0.05),降雨量年内分配不均,存在明显的季节性变化,部分区域降雨量年内异常集中且降雨集中度未来将会持续减少;2)整个研究区及其3个子区域在1960-2017年平均降雨集中度变化均存在一个40 a左右的主周期和一个24 a左右的次周期,各个子区域降雨集中度的变化与研究区整体的周期变化保持一致性;3)在1960-2017年,降雨集中度空间分布存在冷热点,冷点区域降雨集中度呈现显著减少趋势(P<0.05)。热点区域降雨集中度呈现不显著减少趋势,年际变化幅度高于冷点区域;4)北大西洋涛动和太平洋十年涛动指数等大气环流因子变化对降雨集中度的变化具有较强的影响,不同的大气环流因子对降雨集中度的影响存在差异。研究成果将有助于进一步深化对西北地区降雨年内分配变化的认识,为西北地区生态环境保护和水资源规划制定提供一定的科学依据。

       

      Abstract: Abstract: This study aims to explore the temporal and spatial evolution of rainfall concentration against the global climate change in the Northwest region of China. Mann-Kendall trend test and change-point detection were carried out on a series of monthly raster rainfall data in the Northwest region from 1960 to 2017. Morlet wavelet was also used to analyze the periodic change in rainfall concentration. Moreover, a hotspot analysis was made on the spatial distribution and aggregation characteristics of rainfall concentration. A cross-wavelet analysis was used to explore the relationship between atmospheric circulation factors and rainfall concentration, thereby determining the influence of landform distribution on rainfall concentration. The results showed that: 1) The average rainfall concentration presented a decreasing trend in the Northwest region and the three sub-regions (subarea 1 which is in the west of "Qice Line", subarea 2 which is between "Yangguan Line" and "Qice Line", and subarea 3 which is between "Hu Line" and "Yangguan Line") from 1960 to 2017, where there were significant change-points (P<0.05). Specifically, the average rainfall concentration in subarea 1 showed a significant downward trend (P<0.05). The significant change-points in rainfall concentration of the entire study area were mainly concentrated in the 1980s, 1990s, and 2010s (P<0.05). Furthermore, the maximum multi-year average rainfall concentration was distributed in subarea 2. There was also uneven rainfall distribution during the year, indicating obvious seasonal changes. Some areas were abnormally concentrated or continued to decrease, thereby flatting the distribution of rainfall over the year in the future. 2) The average rainfall concentration varied greatly in the entire study area. Specifically, the three sub-regions from 1960 to 2017 presented a main cycle of about 40 a, and a secondary cycle of about 24 a. The overall cycle changes of rainfall concentration in the entire study area and three sub-regions remained the same, indicating no obvious difference. 3) There were cold and hot spots in the spatial distribution of rainfall concentration from 1960 to 2017. The rainfall concentration in cold spots showed a significant decreasing trend (P<0.05), while continued to decrease in the future. The rainfall concentration in hotspots presented an insignificant decreasing trend (P>0.05). The interannual variation was higher than that in cold spots. 4) North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Pacific Decade Oscillation Index (PDO) presented a strong influence on the changes in rainfall concentration, where different atmospheric circulation factors had different effects on rainfall concentration. At the same time, the distribution difference of landform in Northwest China has a certain impact on the change of rainfall concentration. The rainfall concentration in the high mountainous landforms is the highest, with an average of 28.55. Consequently, much more attention can be paid to the influence of abnormal factors of atmospheric circulation on rainfall concentration, especially the distribution of rainfall in arid and semi-arid regions over the year. The findings can provide scientific support to ecological and environmental protection, as well as the response to water resources in the Northwest region.

       

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