河南省夏花生生育期旱涝灾害危险性评价

    Risk assessment of summer peanut drought and waterlogging disaster during growth periods in Henan Province of China

    • 摘要: 基于河南省109个气象站点1981-2019年的气象资料、农气站夏花生生育期资料以及76个县市的产量统计资料,根据夏花生需水特性将全生育期划分为前期(播种期-分支期)、中期(开花期-结荚期)、后期(饱果期-成熟期)3个时期,以作物水分亏缺指数(Crop Water Deficit Index, CWDI)为农业干旱指标,以累积湿润度指数Ma为农业涝渍指标,基于逐日的指标值监测各干旱或涝渍过程,以干旱或涝渍过程为危险性计算的最小单位,对河南省夏花生进行干旱和涝渍危险性评价。结果表明:夏花生各时期干旱和涝渍危险性指数从大到小均依次为中期、前期、后期。前、中、后期干旱危险性指数占全生育期干旱危险性指数权重分别为0.28、0.37、0.35;各时期涝渍危险性指数占全生育期涝渍危险性指数权重分别为0.58、0.27、0.15。结合各时期危险性指数值以及所占权重,得出河南省夏花生两个种植高风险区,分别为干旱主导的高度危险区和涝渍主导的中度危险区,前者以豫北为中心,后者以豫南信阳为中心,总体上,豫北地区干旱主导的危险性高于豫南信阳地区涝渍主导的危险性,干旱是影响河南省夏花生生长的主要气象灾害。该研究可为优化河南省夏花生种植布局提供理论依据。

       

      Abstract: This study aims to realize the risk assessment of drought and waterlogging disaster during summer peanut growth period. The meteorological data was collected from 109 meteorological stations in Henan Province of China from 1981 to 2019. The growth period information of summer peanut was from agrometeorological observation stations, and the complete yield data was also collected from 76 counties and cities. The whole growth of summer peanut was divided into three periods, according to the water demand: the early (from sowing to branching stage), the middle (from flowing to pod setting stage) and the last (from filling to mature stage) period. The Crop Water Deficit Index (CWDI) was adopted as the agricultural drought index, and the cumulative moisture index Ma as the agricultural waterlogging index. After that, the risk index of each hazard inducing factor in each period was calculated using the risk degree of each drought or waterlogging process (Predecessors mostly take the growth period or month as the unit, which may cover up some short-term disasters). Next, the coefficient of determination R2 was taken as the weight of each hazard inducing factor in each period, which was obtained by regressing the average yield reduction rate with the risk index of each hazard inducing factor in each period. Finally, the total risk of drought and waterlogging of summer peanut was evaluated using the risk index of each period and their own weights. The coefficient of determination of total risk index and average yield reduction rate was 0.680, which reached 0.001 significance level, indicating an outstanding increase. The results showed that the severe and extreme droughts were mostly distributed in North Henan. The moderate waterlogging was in the whole region, where the severe and extreme waterlogging were mainly distributed in Xinyang and Zhumadian in South Henan. The order of risk index in each period of drought was ranked as the middle, the early, the last period. The order of risk index in each period of waterlogging was all the same as that of drought. The risk weight of drought were 0.28, 0.37 and 0.35 during the early, the middle and the last period, respectively, whereas, that of waterlogging were 0.58, 0.27 and 0.15, respectively. Combined with the risk index and the risk weight of each hazard inducing factor in each period, there were two higher risk areas for summer peanut planting. The high risk area was dominated by drought, and the middle risk area was dominated by waterlogging, where the former was with North Henan as the center, and the latter was with Xinyang as the center in southern Henan Province. Anyway, the high risk area of drought that dominated in North Henan was greater than that of waterlogging that dominated in Xinyang of South Henan, indicating that drought was the primary meteorological disaster affecting the growth of summer peanut. The finding can provide a strong theoretical basis to optimize the planting layout of summer peanut in Henan province of China.

       

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