Abstract:
This study aims to realize the risk assessment of drought and waterlogging disaster during summer peanut growth period. The meteorological data was collected from 109 meteorological stations in Henan Province of China from 1981 to 2019. The growth period information of summer peanut was from agrometeorological observation stations, and the complete yield data was also collected from 76 counties and cities. The whole growth of summer peanut was divided into three periods, according to the water demand: the early (from sowing to branching stage), the middle (from flowing to pod setting stage) and the last (from filling to mature stage) period. The Crop Water Deficit Index (CWDI) was adopted as the agricultural drought index, and the cumulative moisture index Ma as the agricultural waterlogging index. After that, the risk index of each hazard inducing factor in each period was calculated using the risk degree of each drought or waterlogging process (Predecessors mostly take the growth period or month as the unit, which may cover up some short-term disasters). Next, the coefficient of determination R2 was taken as the weight of each hazard inducing factor in each period, which was obtained by regressing the average yield reduction rate with the risk index of each hazard inducing factor in each period. Finally, the total risk of drought and waterlogging of summer peanut was evaluated using the risk index of each period and their own weights. The coefficient of determination of total risk index and average yield reduction rate was 0.680, which reached 0.001 significance level, indicating an outstanding increase. The results showed that the severe and extreme droughts were mostly distributed in North Henan. The moderate waterlogging was in the whole region, where the severe and extreme waterlogging were mainly distributed in Xinyang and Zhumadian in South Henan. The order of risk index in each period of drought was ranked as the middle, the early, the last period. The order of risk index in each period of waterlogging was all the same as that of drought. The risk weight of drought were 0.28, 0.37 and 0.35 during the early, the middle and the last period, respectively, whereas, that of waterlogging were 0.58, 0.27 and 0.15, respectively. Combined with the risk index and the risk weight of each hazard inducing factor in each period, there were two higher risk areas for summer peanut planting. The high risk area was dominated by drought, and the middle risk area was dominated by waterlogging, where the former was with North Henan as the center, and the latter was with Xinyang as the center in southern Henan Province. Anyway, the high risk area of drought that dominated in North Henan was greater than that of waterlogging that dominated in Xinyang of South Henan, indicating that drought was the primary meteorological disaster affecting the growth of summer peanut. The finding can provide a strong theoretical basis to optimize the planting layout of summer peanut in Henan province of China.