郭爱军, 畅建霞, 王义民, 黄强, 吴彬, 张春. 考虑水库来用水过程关联性的多维随机动态规划算法[J]. 农业工程学报, 2022, 38(2): 139-148. DOI: 10.11975/j.issn.1002-6819.2022.02.016
    引用本文: 郭爱军, 畅建霞, 王义民, 黄强, 吴彬, 张春. 考虑水库来用水过程关联性的多维随机动态规划算法[J]. 农业工程学报, 2022, 38(2): 139-148. DOI: 10.11975/j.issn.1002-6819.2022.02.016
    Guo Aijun, Chang Jianxia, Wang Yimin, Huang Qiang, Wu Bin, Zhang Chun. Multi-dimensional stochastic dynamic programming algorithms considering the relevancy between streamflow and water demand[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering (Transactions of the CSAE), 2022, 38(2): 139-148. DOI: 10.11975/j.issn.1002-6819.2022.02.016
    Citation: Guo Aijun, Chang Jianxia, Wang Yimin, Huang Qiang, Wu Bin, Zhang Chun. Multi-dimensional stochastic dynamic programming algorithms considering the relevancy between streamflow and water demand[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering (Transactions of the CSAE), 2022, 38(2): 139-148. DOI: 10.11975/j.issn.1002-6819.2022.02.016

    考虑水库来用水过程关联性的多维随机动态规划算法

    Multi-dimensional stochastic dynamic programming algorithms considering the relevancy between streamflow and water demand

    • 摘要: 水库来水和以农业灌溉用水为典型代表的用水过程均受到气候条件的显著影响。气候过程的随机性会导致水库入库径流(供给侧)与需求过程(需求侧)的随机性;同时,流域气候条件的空间相似性使得二者之间存在一定程度的关联性。为有效解决水库随机优化调度中来用水过程的随机性与关联性问题,该研究采用Copula函数描述多维变量的随机性与关联性,提出了考虑与不考虑多维变量关联性的多维随机动态规划算法,并以泾河流域东庄水库优化调度为例展开实例研究。结果表明,除却水库来水(用水)一维随机过程时段之间的关联性外,部分时段下来水与用水过程呈现显著的关联性;考虑多维随机过程的关联性时,长系列灌溉缺水总量10.37亿m3,较将水资源供、需二维过程独立性处理时更优(缺水总量10.49亿m3),考虑与不考虑来用水过程关联性时的状态转移概率差异较小是造成优化调度结果差异较小的主要原因;现实环境中来用水过程之间的随机性与关联性切实存在,考虑多维变量关联性的随机动态规划算法理论上更为契合,建议采用该方法求解含农业灌溉用水的水库随机优化调度问题。研究提出的多维随机动态规划算法可扩展应用于其他领域多维随机过程呈独立、相关的不同情形,并为随机性优化调度提供新的算法支撑。

       

      Abstract: Abstract: Both Reservoir Inflow (RI) and Irrigation Water Demand (IWD) depend mainly on the basin-wide climate. Hence, various unpredictable (stochastic) weather and climate have induced significant variation in the water supply and demand processes in recent years. Meanwhile, the spatial similarity of climate conditions was also required to consider the relevancy between water supply and demand. More importantly, the smaller the basin is, the more considerable the relevancy is. However, the traditional one-dimensional stochastic dynamic programming cannot concern the relevancy between the multiple variables of water resources. In this study, a novel multi-dimensional stochastic dynamic programming was developed to deal with the relevancy and stochasticity in the streamflow and demand for the reservoir operations. Firstly, the one-dimensional distribution was selected to characterize the stochasticity of individual RI and IWD processes. Secondly, a Copula function of several variables was constructed using the marginal distribution. Specifically, the relevancy involved two aspects, i.e., the RI or IWD between the adjacent time intervals, and between RI and IWD at the same time. The stochasticity was referred to the individual RI, IWD, as well as the two-dimensional RI and IWD processes. Finally, the Copula function was integrated into the stochastic dynamic programming for the optimal dispatching model of the reservoir. A case study was set as an annual regulating reservoir responsible for agricultural irrigation. The results indicate that: 1) The Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution was performed better on the RI and IWD in months. 2) There was remarkable relevancy of RI or IWD between a few adjacent time intervals. Moreover, there was a strong significance in April, May, June, July, September, and October. 3) Various types of Copula function were selected to model the dependent structure of RI/IWD variables at the adjacent time intervals. A Frank Copula was also employed to describe the negative relationship of dependent structure between RI and IWD at the same time. 4) The reservoir operation model considering the relevancy between RI and IWD was performed better than not. Specifically, the case study showed that the total water shortage was 10.37 × 108m3, when considering the relevancy and stochasticity of multiple variables, which was less than before (10.49×108 m3). Nevertheless, there was a little difference between the optimal total water shortages by the two multi-dimensional stochastic dynamic programmings. This trend was attributed to a little difference of state transition probability between with and without considering the relevancy of RI and IWD. Consequently, the newly-developed multi-dimensional stochastic dynamic programming can be widely expected to extend for the multi-dimensional stochastic optimal scheduling in fields, such as the multi-energy supplementary model considering the hydropower, wind, and light energy. Moreover, a better fitting can be suitable for the current relevancy and stochasticity in multi-dimensional processes, where the wind speed and solar radiation are stochastic variables in this case.

       

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