近20年海南省耕地林果化的时空分异及驱动因素分析

    Spatial-temporal variation and driving factors of cropland conversion to forest or fruit production in Hainan Province during 2000-2020

    • 摘要: 耕地林果化是指原本种植粮食作物的耕地被用于植树种果的现象,揭示耕地林果化时空分异及驱动因素对科学管理耕地、稳定粮食生产具有重要意义。基于土地类型变化视角,以海南省2000、2010和2020年3期土地利用数据为基础,综合利用转移矩阵、地理探测器和多元线性回归模型,系统分析了近20年海南省土地类型变化视角下的耕地林果化利用总体态势、时空分异特征及其驱动因素。研究表明:2000-2020年海南省林果化耕地规模呈降低态势,耕地林果化增量规模从2000-2010年的1 314.35 km2下降到了2010-2020年的472.45 km2,且前时段的林果化耕地有397.61 km2在后时段转回为了耕地。两个时段内,市县尺度耕地林果化利用现象空间差异明显,文昌、儋州的耕地林果化规模较高;网格尺度的耕地林果化空间分布格局基本相似,但格网耕地林果化比例具有明显差异。各时段驱动因子的解释能力不同,GDP增速、自然地形、区位因素是解释力较强的驱动因子;驱动因子是通过因子间交互作用影响耕地林果化利用,表现为双因子增强或非线性增强。

       

      Abstract: The Cropland Conversion to Forest or Fruit Production (CCFFP) can be that the land often farming crops is converted to grow the non-grain agricultural product, such as the fruit tree, and tea garden. The roots of shrubs or fruit trees normally penetrate deep into the soil, and seriously damage the physical and chemical properties of soil, further reducing the fertility of the soil, which is a serious land use behavior in the non-grain cultivated land. Since the comparative benefits of grain production decreased in recent years, the number of migrant laborers to cities and the economic benefits of planting fruit have increased, while the area of CCFFP continues to increase. It is of great significance to reveal the spatial-temporal differentiation and driving factors of cropland conversion to fruit production for land utilization and stable grain production. In this study, the land use dataset was collected from GlobeLand30 in Hainan Province in 2000, 2010, and 2020. The transfer matrix, geographical detector, and multiple linear regression models were comprehensively selected to systematically analyze the overall situation, spatial and temporal differentiation characteristics, and driving factors of cropland conversion to fruit production from the perspective of land cover change. The results showed that the area of cropland conversion to fruit production decreased from 1 314.35 km2 in 2000-2010 to 472.45 km2 in 2010-2020, indicating a significant decrease in the scale. The conversion of cropland to forest land was the main flow of cropland conversion to fruit production utilization, where 397.61 km2 of cropland conversion to fruit production in the previous period (2000-2010) was converted to cultivated land in the later period (2010-2020) and was replanted the crops. There was an outstanding spatial difference in cropland conversion to fruit production utilization at the level of city and county, indicating the higher areas in Wenchang and Danzhou. There was basically a similar spatial distribution pattern of cropland conversion to fruit production at the grid scale, but the proportion presented significant indigenous differences. There was a different explanatory power of driving factors in each period. The GDP growth rate, topography, and location factors were the main driving factors with strong explanatory power. In addition, the driving factors for the cropland conversion to fruit production were the interaction between factors, indicating the double factor of nonlinear enhancement. Some recommendations were also proposed to optimize the pattern of tropical fruit planting for the grain unitization of cropland. 1) To strengthen the tropical agriculture planting in different regions; 2) To develop differentiated guiding fruit planting and forest fostering; 3) To utilize the high temporal and spatial resolution remote sensing satellite to monitor the crop type; 4) To forbid wasting arable land, digging soil for building material or fishpond for fish farm.

       

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