陈绍民, 李晓丽, 杨启良, 吴立峰, 熊凯, 刘小刚. 基于机器学习的遮荫设施内参考作物蒸散量估算[J]. 农业工程学报, 2022, 38(11): 108-116. DOI: 10.11975/j.issn.1002-6819.2022.11.012
    引用本文: 陈绍民, 李晓丽, 杨启良, 吴立峰, 熊凯, 刘小刚. 基于机器学习的遮荫设施内参考作物蒸散量估算[J]. 农业工程学报, 2022, 38(11): 108-116. DOI: 10.11975/j.issn.1002-6819.2022.11.012
    Chen Shaomin, Li Xiaoli, Yang Qiliang, Wu Lifeng, Xiong Kai, Liu Xiaogang. Estimation of reference evapotranspiration in shading facility using machine learning[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering (Transactions of the CSAE), 2022, 38(11): 108-116. DOI: 10.11975/j.issn.1002-6819.2022.11.012
    Citation: Chen Shaomin, Li Xiaoli, Yang Qiliang, Wu Lifeng, Xiong Kai, Liu Xiaogang. Estimation of reference evapotranspiration in shading facility using machine learning[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering (Transactions of the CSAE), 2022, 38(11): 108-116. DOI: 10.11975/j.issn.1002-6819.2022.11.012

    基于机器学习的遮荫设施内参考作物蒸散量估算

    Estimation of reference evapotranspiration in shading facility using machine learning

    • 摘要: 为高效准确地估算遮荫设施内参考作物蒸散量(Reference Evapotranspiration, ET0),该研究通过分析三七栽培遮荫设施(四周及顶部均由黑色遮阳网遮盖,通风性较好)内及设施外气象参数的关系,采用Sobol敏感性分析方法筛选出设施外有效的气象参数,并将其作为模型输入,以Penman-Monteith(FAO-56 PM)模型计算的值为标准值,采用贝叶斯优化(Bayesian Optimization, BO)算法优化机器学习方法(支持向量回归机(Support Vector Regression, SVR)、随机森林(Random Forest, RF)和极限学习机(Extreme Learning Machine, ELM))中的参数,建立3种遮荫设施内ET0估算模型(BO-SVR、BO-RF和BO-ELM)。结果表明:遮荫设施内ET0对设施外平均相对湿度、平均风速、最高气温和平均气温的敏感性较高,一阶敏感系数分别为0.450、0.304、0.064和0.026,故基于4组气象参数建立模型。BO-ELM模型的测试精度整体优于BO-SVR和BO-RF,其中BO-ELM模型基于平均相对湿度、平均风速、最高气温和平均气温的气象参数组合估算精度最高,决定系数、均方根误差和平均绝对误差分别为0.928、0.069 mm/d和0.046 mm/d,BO-ELM模型也能很好地适应少量气象参数(平均相对湿度和平均风速)估算设施内ET0,决定系数、均方根误差和平均绝对误差分别为0.910、0.078 mm/d和0.057 mm/d。综合考虑计算精度和计算代价,可将BO-ELM模型作为气象参数缺失情况下遮荫设施内ET0的估算方法。研究为遮荫设施内ET0的估算提供有效方法。

       

      Abstract: Reference evapotranspiration (ET0) is one of the most important parameters to calculate the crop water demand. The key physical quantity of the water cycle can also pose a great challenge to the water balance for the decision-making on the agricultural water use plan at present. The ET0 in the facilities can be generally estimated by the improved empirical formula with high accuracy. But, much more meteorological parameters are required during estimation. It is prohibitively expensive for the experimental cost of ET0 estimation using measurement instruments for the meteorological parameters in the shading facilities. Alternatively, machine learning can be expected to easily obtain the meteorological parameters outside the facilities. However, only a few studies were focused on the estimation of ET0 in this case. In this study, an efficient and accurate estimation of the ET0 was proposed to clarify the relationship between the meteorological parameters inside and outside of Panax notoginseng shading facility. A Sobol sensitivity analysis was implemented to determine the effective meteorological parameters outside the facility as the model input. A Penman-Monteith model was used to calculate the standard values. Three ET0 estimation models (BO-SVR, BO-RF, and BO-ELM) were established, where the Bayesian Optimization (BO) was used to optimize the parameters in the Support Vector Regression (SVR), Random Forest (RF), and Extreme Learning Machine (ELM). The results showed that there was a strong correlation between six meteorological parameters inside and outside the shading facility, among which the average temperature, the maximum temperature, the minimum temperature, and average relative humidity were significantly correlated, and the coefficient of determination (R2) values were 0.914, 0.721, 0.925 and 0.923, respectively. The radiation term was close to 0 in the shading facility. The ET0 was approximately equal to the aerodynamic term, where the R2, the Root-Mean-Square Error (RMSE), and the Mean Absolute Error (MAE) were 0.999, 0.008 mm/d, and 0.006 mm/d, respectively. There was a strong correlation between the aerodynamic terms inside and outside the shading facility, where the R2, RMSE, and MAE were 0.856, 0.097 mm/d, and 0.073 mm/d, respectively. Therefore, it was feasible to estimate the ET0 in the shading facility of Panax notoginseng using the meteorological factors outside the facility. In Sobol sensitivity analysis, the ET0 in the shading facility was highly sensitive to the average relative humidity, average wind speed, maximum temperature, and average temperature, with the first-order sensitivity coefficients of 0.450, 0.304, 0.064, and 0.026, respectively. There was a small influence of the minimum temperature and sunshine duration on the ET0, where the first-order sensitivity coefficients were less than 0.01. Therefore, an optimal combination of four meteorological parameters was constructed for the improved model. The overall performance of the BO-ELM model in the test accuracy was better than those of the BO-SVR and BO-RF models. The highest accuracy was achieved for the BO-ELM model using the optimal combination of average relative humidity, average wind speed, the maximum temperature, and average temperature, particularly with the R2, RMSE, and MAE of 0.928, 0.069 mm/d, and 0.046 mm/d, respectively. The BO-ELM model was also well adapted to estimate the ET0 in the facility with a small number of meteorological parameters (average relative humidity, and average wind speed), with the R2, RMSE, and MAE of 0.910, 0.078 mm/d, and 0.057 mm/d, respectively. The computational cost of each estimation model was calculated from the parameter tuning time and modeling time of the model. Overall, the BO-SVR and BO-ELM models presented relatively short running time of 0.97 and 2.22 s, respectively. By contrast, the longest running time of 27.46 s was obtained in the BO-RF model. Therefore, the BO-ELM model can be expected to serve as the ET0 estimation in the shading facility in the absence of some meteorological parameters, fully considering the calculation accuracy and cost of the simulation. The findings can also provide an effective way for the estimation of ET0 in the shading facilities.

       

    /

    返回文章
    返回