Abstract:
Abstract: An ecological environment in arid areas is continuously deteriorating faster than expected, particularly under the dual influence of global climate and human activities. Active ecological restoration projects can be effective ways to curb ecological degradation. An accurate and rapid evaluation of ecological restoration projects can also greatly contribute to the decision-making on ecological restoration measures in arid areas in the future. For instance, the Key Master Plan of Shiyang River Basin was launched in the arid area of northwest China in 2007, in order to promote water use efficiency and regional ecological environment. Taking the Key Master Plan of Shiyang River Basin as the research object, this study aims to determine the typical indicators (including the ecology, climate, hydrology, and social economy) before and after the implementation of the project. An evaluation system of comprehensive effect was also established suitable for the regional ecological restoration projects using the pressure-state-response framework. The analytic hierarchy process was first used to determine the weight of indicators by integrating the opinions of decision-makers and experts. Then, the ecosystem restoration was quantitatively evaluated to clarify the positive impacts and potential risks. The results showed that the climate of the Shiyang River basin presented a trend of warming and wetting, where the annual runoff of the Caiqi section increased to 4.01×108 m3. There was an increased over-exploitation of groundwater in the lower reaches of the basin, while the depth of groundwater continued to decrease in the middle reaches. Furthermore, the sown area of crops remained stable in the basin except in Yongchang County. At the same time, the irrigation water consumption decreased year by year, with an average annual decrease of 1.51%. Specifically, the water-saving irrigation area reached 23.99×104 hm2 in 2020. 94.6% of the regions showed an increasing trend of Gross Primary Productivity (GPP), which was mainly concentrated on the banks of the Shiyang River and the vicinity of Qingtu Lake. By contrast, the vegetation showed a trend of recovery in the mountainous areas of the upper reaches. The cropland expansion and woodland shrinking were alleviated to reduce the scale of grassland, where the wasteland was the fastest growing land type after the implementation of land management. The evaluation index of Jinchang City (Grade Ⅳ 0.353) increased faster than that of Wuwei City (Grade Ⅲ 0.413), indicating a positive evolution. There was a significant increase in the comprehensive evaluation of the Key Master Plan in the middle and upper reaches of the basin, as well as the coastal areas of Shiyang River, while only a slight increase was found in the lower reaches of Minqin County. The GPP (16.1%) and the utilization ratio of water resources (11.6%) were the main contribution indexes of ecological restoration in this region. Therefore, the water resource allocation can be expected to timely adjust in the follow-up planning of the Key Master Plan, according to social and economic development. Groundwater monitoring and water right trading should also be adopted to limit the increase in agricultural water use. The finding can also provide scientific suggestions for the decision-making on the measures in the next stage of ecological restoration in the arid areas.