陈鸿基, 杨庆媛, 彭立娴, 苏康传, 张浩哲, 刘晓雨. 三峡库区县域"三生空间"时空演变特征与情景模拟[J]. 农业工程学报, 2022, 38(13): 285-294. DOI: 10.11975/j.issn.1002-6819.2022.13.031
    引用本文: 陈鸿基, 杨庆媛, 彭立娴, 苏康传, 张浩哲, 刘晓雨. 三峡库区县域"三生空间"时空演变特征与情景模拟[J]. 农业工程学报, 2022, 38(13): 285-294. DOI: 10.11975/j.issn.1002-6819.2022.13.031
    Chen Hongji, Yang Qingyuan, Peng Lixian, Su Kangchuan, Zhang Haozhe, Liu Xiaoyu. Spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and scenario simulation of production-living-ecological space at county level in Three Gorges reservoir areas[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering (Transactions of the CSAE), 2022, 38(13): 285-294. DOI: 10.11975/j.issn.1002-6819.2022.13.031
    Citation: Chen Hongji, Yang Qingyuan, Peng Lixian, Su Kangchuan, Zhang Haozhe, Liu Xiaoyu. Spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and scenario simulation of production-living-ecological space at county level in Three Gorges reservoir areas[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering (Transactions of the CSAE), 2022, 38(13): 285-294. DOI: 10.11975/j.issn.1002-6819.2022.13.031

    三峡库区县域"三生空间"时空演变特征与情景模拟

    Spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and scenario simulation of production-living-ecological space at county level in Three Gorges reservoir areas

    • 摘要: 探究区域“三生空间”时空演化规律和未来发展态势是进行国土空间规划和治理的重要基础,可为区域国土空间有序利用和整治修复指明方向。该研究运用转移矩阵、动态度模型分析1990-2020年三峡库区重庆市石柱县“三生空间”规模、结构及格局的动态演变特征,基于FLUS模型模拟在自然发展、耕地保护和生态保护3种情景下石柱县2035年的国土空间格局。结果表明:1)石柱县国土空间以生态空间为主,生产空间次之,生活空间占比最小,总体呈现出西部以生产空间为主,东部以生态空间为主的空间特征。2)研究期内,石柱县生产空间小幅减少,生态空间略有增加,生活空间增幅显著。“三生空间”转移呈现出“整体分散、局部集中”的空间特征。3)3种情景模拟下,石柱县“三生空间”变化显著。自然发展情景下,农业生产空间向其他空间均有转出,但转出转入面积基本平衡,其他空间均呈现出不同程度的扩张,而绿被生态空间呈现大幅度萎缩趋势。耕地保护情景下,农业生产空间的转出得到严格控制,耕地得到有效保护,但绿被生态空间成为最大的转出空间。生态保护情景下,生态空间格局得到有效保护,其面积有所增加,但农业生产空间萎缩明显,其他类型空间面积均有所增加。总体而言,研究结果与研究区社会经济发展趋势和区域发展格局形成较好的对应关系,可为研究区国土空间治理和优化提供理论支撑。

       

      Abstract: Regional Production-Living-Ecological Space (PLES) has been one of the most important indicators in territorial space planning. Spatial-temporal evolution and development trends can be greatly contributed to the orderly utilization, renovation, and restoration of regional territorial space in the future. In this study, a transfer matrix and dynamic attitude model was proposed to analyze the dynamic evolution characteristics of the scale, structure, and pattern of PLES from 1990 to 2020. A Future Land Use Simulation (FLUS) model was then used to simulate the land spatial pattern of Shizhu County, Chongqing City, China in 2035. Three scenarios were performed on natural development, cultivated land protection, and ecological protection. The results showed that: 1) The ecological space was the main area, followed by the production space, and the living space with the least proportion. In general, the production space was the main area in the west, whereas, the ecological space was in the east. The PLES was also dominated by the green ecological, and agricultural production space, accounting for over 65% and 30%, respectively. As such, diversified geographical characteristics were created in this case. Among them, the green ecological space was distributed in the Fangdu Mountain Range and the Qiyao Mountain Range, leading to two natural ecological space barriers running diagonally across the whole territory. Agricultural production space was mainly distributed in the trough and valley between the two mountain ranges and along the Yangtze River in the western part of the county. 2) The production space decreased slightly during the study period. By contrast, there were slight and significant increases in the ecological and living space, respectively. The transfer of PLES showed the spatial characteristics of "overall dispersion and local concentration". The expansion of industrial production space was mainly distributed in Xituo Town along the Yangtze River and Xilu Street in the study area. In addition, the urban area was located, while other townships were scattered. The expansion of urban living space was mainly distributed in Wanan and Nanbin Street, where the urban area was located, while other new spaces were scattered throughout the county. 3) There were significant changes in the PLES under the three scenarios. Specifically, the agricultural production space was transferred into other spaces under the natural development scenario. A good balance was also gained in the area of transferring. By contrast, there were different degrees of expansion in other spaces. A significant shrinkage trend was found in the green ecological space. Moreover, the transfer out of agricultural production space was strictly controlled under the scenario of arable land protection. As such, the arable land was effectively protected during this time. However, the green ecological space was the largest transfer out space. Furthermore, the ecological space pattern was effectively protected with the increased area under the ecological protection scenario. But, the agricultural production space shrunk significantly, while the area of all other types of space increased. These results were better correspondent with the socio-economic development trend and regional development pattern in the study area. The finding can provide theoretical support for territorial space management and optimization. A recommendation was made on the national spatial control to improve the level of intensive use of living space, for the better protection of agricultural production space, as well as the protection and restoration of ecological space in the future.

       

    /

    返回文章
    返回