未来升温情景下中国马铃薯产量和水分利用变化

    Variations of potato yield and water use efficiency in China under future global warming scenarios

    • 摘要: 升温和降水变化对全球马铃薯生产构成巨大挑战。揭示未来升温1.5 ℃和2.0 ℃情景下中国不同种植区马铃薯产量和水分利用的变化,对保障中国粮食安全具有重要意义。本研究中,基于中国不同地区的气候条件和种植制度,将全国马铃薯种植区划分为北方一作区、中原二作区、南方冬作区和西南混作区。进而,基于未来全球气温与基准期(1986-2005)的差值,推算得出全球升温达到1.5和2.0 ℃的时段分别为2016-2035年和2028-2047年。在全国马铃薯种植区共选择7个马铃薯典型品种。本研究应用的马铃薯模型为APSIM-Potato模型。该研究基于气候模式通过降尺度获取的未来气象数据,驱动充分校正的APSIM-Potato模型,模拟分析未来升温1.5 ℃(2016-2035年)和2.0 ℃(2028-2047年)情景下中国不同种植区雨养和灌溉(基于土壤水分亏缺模型启动自动灌溉)马铃薯产量和水分利用的变化。结果表明:基准期(1986-2005年),雨养马铃薯产量、生育期蒸散量(ET)和水分利用效率(WUE)分别为0.05~52.40 t·hm-2、7~454 mm和3~193 kg/(mm·hm2),与基准期相比,升温1.5 ℃情景下,北方一作区和中原二作区马铃薯产量和ET呈增加趋势,产量分别增加1.50%和1.90%,ET分别增加3.10%和2.90%;南方冬作区和西南混作区产量和ET呈下降趋势,产量分别下降4.50%和12.70%,ET分别下降2.20%和8.40%;4个种植区马铃薯WUE均呈下降趋势。升温2.0 ℃情景下,北方一作区、中原二作区和南方冬作区马铃薯产量和ET均呈增加趋势,产量分别增加15.50%、1.50%和3.30%,ET分别增加12.10%、4.60%和4.20%,西南混作区产量和ET分别降低8.80%和8.30%;北方一作区马铃薯WUE呈增加趋势,其他3个区下降0.60%~3.30%。基准期(1986-2005年),灌溉马铃薯产量、ET和WUE分别为6.80~59.60 t/hm2、151~631 mm和7.90~163.60 kg/(mm·hm2),与基准期相比,升温1.5℃情景下,北方一作区和中原二作区产量呈增加趋势,分别增加3.60%和3.00%,南方冬作区和西南混作区分别下降1.10%和11.80%;ET在北方一作区、中原二作区和西南混作区呈增加趋势,分别增加4.60%、4.00%和2.10%,在西南混作区下降4.90%;4个种植区马铃薯WUE均呈下降趋势。升温2.0 ℃情景下,北方一作区、中原二作区和南方冬作区产和ET均呈增加趋势,产量分别增加5.60%、6.80%和6.50%,ET分别增加11.90%、8.60%和7.10%,马铃薯西南混作区产量和ET分别下降8.60%和5.30%;4个种植区WUE均呈下降趋势。研究结果表明未来升温使北方一作区和中原二作区雨养和灌溉马铃薯增产,而导致南方冬作区和西南混作区减产。该研究可为中国马铃薯生产适应未来气候变化提供理论指导。

       

      Abstract: Rising temperature and varying precipitation have posed huge challenges to the potato production in the world. Revealing changes of potato yield and water use efficiency (WUE) under 1.5 and 2.0 ℃ global warming, has significance for food security in China. In this study, based on the different climate conditions and cropping systems found in China, we divided the entire potato planting area across China into four zones, i.e., the north single cropping system zone, the central double cropping system zone, the south winter cropping system zone and the southwest mixed cropping system zone. Then, the 1.5℃ and 2.0 ℃ warming scenarios were generated based on the baseline period of 1986-2005, and the two warming scenarios were anticipated during 2016-2035 and 2028-2047. 7 typical potato cultivars were selected for whole potato planting area in China. APSIM-Potato model (version 7.6) was used in this study. To assess the impacts of global warming on potato water use, APSIM-Potato was drive by daily climate data under three climate scenarios of baseline, 1.5 ℃ and 2.0 ℃ warming under rainfed and irrigated treatment. Results showed that: Rainfed potato yield, evapotranspiration (ET) and WUE were 0.05-52.40 t/hm2, 7-454 mm and 3-193 kg/(mm·hm2), respectively during the baseline period (1986-2005). Compared with base line period, under 1.5 ℃ global warming scenario, rainfed potato yield increased by 1.50% and 1.90% in north single and central double cropping system, and the ET increased by 3.10% and 2.90% in the two regions, in south winter and southwest mixture cropping systems, the yield decreased by 4.50% and 12.70%, and ET decreased by 2.20% and 8.40% in the two regions. WUE decreased by 0.10%-6.60% in the four potato planting regions across China. Under 2.0 ℃ global warming scenario, potato yield increased by 15.50%, 1.50% and 3.30% in the north single, central double and south winter cropping systems, and the ET increased by 12.10%, 4.60% and 4.20% in the three regions, while the yield and ET decreased by 8.80% and 8.30% in southwest mixture cropping systems. WUE increased by 9.80% in north single cropping system, while decreased by 0.60%-3.30% in other three regions. Irrigated potato yield, ET and WUE were 6.80-59.60 t/hm2, 151-631 mm and 7.90-163.60 kg/(mm·hm2), respectively during the baseline period. Under 1.5 ℃ global warming scenario, potato yield increased by 3.60% and 3.00% in north single and central double cropping systems, while decreased by 1.10% and 11.80% in south winter and southwest mixture cropping systems. ET increased by 4.60%, 4.00% and 2.10% in north single, central double and south winter cropping systems, while decreased by 4.90% in southwest mixture cropping systems. WUE decreased by 0.70%-11.40% in the four potato planting regions across China. Under 2.0℃ global warming scenario, the yield increased by 5.60%, 6.80% and 6.50%, respectively in north single, central double and south winter cropping systems, and the ET increased by 11.90%, 8.60% and 7.10%, respectively in the three regions, potato yield and ET decreased by 8.60% and 5.30% in southwest mixture cropping systems. WUE decreased by 1.10%-6.70% in the four planting regions across China. This study showed that future global warming would have positive impacts on potato yield in north single and central double cropping system, while decrease the yield in south winter and southwest mixture cropping systems. This study can provide a theoretical guidance for potato production to adapt to future climate change in China.

       

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