中国农村绿色发展水平时空特征及其空间扩散与收敛效应

    Spatiotemporal characteristics, spatial diffusion and convergence of green development levels in rural China

    • 摘要: 探究农村绿色发展水平时空特征及其空间扩散和收敛效应有利于摸清农村发展基底,对认识农村发展基本规律和全面落实乡村振兴战略具有重要意义。该研究在构建农村绿色发展评价指标体系基础上,采用全局主成分分析法测度2006-2020年中国30个省级行政区农村绿色发展水平值。在此基础上分别采用空间自相关、空间收敛分析方法研究农村绿色发展水平空间扩散与收敛效应。结果表明:1)研究期内,中国农村绿色发展水平时序上呈稳定上升趋势,空间分布呈"东高西低、南高北低"格局。2)全局空间自相关结果显示,中国农村绿色发展高水平地区通过空间扩散效应对其他地区发展产生积极影响,但随着时间推移,空间扩散效应逐步减弱。局部空间自相关结果显示,中国农村绿色发展空间集聚地区的高-高、低-低集聚数量多于高-低、低-高集聚区,且高-高集聚分布在北京、山东、江苏、上海等地,低-低集聚区多集中在新疆、贵州等地。3)中国农村绿色发展整体存在显著的空间收敛效应,在城镇化率、人均GDP、人均科技支出等因素及空间溢出共同作用下,农村绿色发展以年均0.034的速度条件收敛于稳态水平。各因素作用方向和程度在不同区域呈显著差异。应创造条件积累后发优势,激励落后地区追赶更领先的地区。建立区域协同机制,因地制宜,分区施策以提升农村绿色发展水平。该研究对深化农村绿色发展相关研究具有参考意义,也可为平衡区域协调发展提供决策支撑。

       

      Abstract: Rural revitalization can be facilitated to explore the spatiotemporal evolution of green development level, spatial diffusion, and convergence effect in modern agriculture. In this study, an evaluation system was constructed for green rural development. The global principal component analysis was carried out to measure the rural green development value in the 30 provincial administrative regions in China during 2006-2020. Visualized mapping and descriptive statistical analysis were used to depict the temporal characteristics, spatial patterns, and regional differences of green rural development levels. And then the spatial autocorrelation and convergence models were utilized to analyze the spatial diffusion and convergence effects of green rural development. The results show that: 1) There was a steady upward trend in the overall level of green development in the rural areas during the study period, with an average annual growth rate of 3.127%. A spatial pattern was found in the "High in the eastern region and low in the western region, while high in the southern region and low in the northern region". The temporal feature of the transition from the "low level and high gap" to the "high level and low gap". 2) There was a significant positive correlation in the spatial diffusion effect of green rural development level. The number of the "high-high" and "low-low" clusters was more than that of the "high-low" and "low-high" ones. The "high-high" cluster was mainly distributed in the eastern Beijing, Shandong, Jiangsu, and Shanghai Provinces, whereas, the "low-low" cluster was mainly concentrated in the western region. 3) The convergence effect of rural green development appeared in the whole country, except for the northeast region. The spatial absolute β convergence coefficient was ranked in the western region (β=-0.243) > eastern region (β=-0.069 2) > central region (β=-0.039), while the convergence rate was in the western region (0.02) > eastern region (0.005)> central region (0.003). The green rural development converged to a stable level under the influence of urbanization rate, per capita GDP, and per capita expenditure on science and technology. The direction and degree of each factor varied significantly over the country. The finding can also provide the guiding significance and decision-making support to narrow the gap in green rural development.

       

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