气候变化下基于DayCent的旱地玉米农田温室气体排放通量模拟

    Modelling greenhouse gas emissions of maize farmland under climate change using DayCent

    • 摘要: 气候变化通过大气CO2浓度、温度和降雨的改变,直接或间接影响农田温室气体排放,研究未来气候情景下农田温室气体排放对实现农业碳减排具有重要意义。为探究气候变化背景下农田温室气体排放特征,该研究在长期田间定位试验基础上,利用当前大气CO2浓度与CO2浓度升高条件下旱作玉米农田温室气体排放通量的田间观测数据,采用“试错法”对DayCent模型进行校验,并利用校验后的模型,根据第六次国际耦合模式比较计划(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6,CMIP6)气候情景数据,预测未来SSP126(低排放水平)与SSP245(中等排放水平)气候情景下旱地玉米农田温室气体排放通量。结果表明,DayCent模型对不同大气CO2浓度下N2O、CH4和CO2排放通量的模拟值与观测值高度一致,模拟效率(modeling efficiency,EF)分别为0.58~0.87、0.45~0.65和0.25~0.62,均方根误差(root mean square error,RMSE)分别为0.83~1.33 g/(hm2·d)、0.67~0.82 g/(hm2·d)和0.58~0.80 g/(m2·d),决定系数(coefficient of determination,R2)分别为0.80~0.91、0.53~0.80和0.53~0.85。SSP126和SSP245气候情景下,在玉米单作种植模式下旱地农田N2O和CO2年排放量均呈现上升趋势,以2001—2020年农田温室气体排放通量为基准,到2060年N2O年排放量分别增加22.8%和24.9%,CO2年排放量分别增加6.7%和8.0%;旱地农田CH4年吸收量呈下降趋势,两个气候情景下分别减少13.6%和13.4%。未来气候情景下旱地农田仍是温室气体排放源,优化氮肥管理和农田耕作措施对实现温室气体减排具有重要意义,模拟结果可以为制定农业适应气候变化对策提供基础数据支持。

       

      Abstract: Atmospheric CO2 concentration, temperature, and precipitation are the main driving forces of global climate, particularly for the greenhouse gas (GHGs) emissions in the cropland. The response of GHGs emissions to climate change can be of great significance for the carbon emission reduction from farmland. This study aims to evaluate the effect of elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration on the GHGs emissions from maize farmland. DayCent model was employed to simulate the long-term GHGs emissions. A series of field experiments were also carried out at Changwu National Field Scientific Observation and Research Station of Farmland Ecosystem on the Loess Plateau. The improved open-top chamber systems (OTCs) were then combined to monitor and control the automatic CO2 concentration. A systematic simulation was performed on the concentration of elevated CO2 (700 μmol/mol), and the fluxes of N2O, CH4, and CO2 from the maize farmland under natural atmospheric CO2 concentrations (400 μmol/mol). DayCent model was parameterized using the weather and soil data from the Changwu National Field Scientific Observation and Research Station of Farmland Ecosystem. The DayCent model was calibrated and verified with the “Trial and Error”, according to the two-year observed data on N2O, CH4, and CO2 fluxes. The calibrated model was utilized to explore the GHGs emissions from the maize farmland under low and medium forcing scenarios (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, SSP126 and SSP245) of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) from 2021 to 2060. The results showed that the simulated fluxes of N2O, CH4, and CO2 with the DayCent model were highly consistent with the observed values under different CO2 concentrations. Specifically, the model efficiencies (EF) were 0.58-0.87, 0.45-0.65, and 0.25-0.62, respectively, while the root mean square error (RMSE) were 0.83-1.33 g/(hm2·d), 0.67-0.82 g/(hm2·d), and 0.58-0.80 g/(m2·d), respectively, and the coefficients of determination were 0.80-0.91, 0.53-0.80, and 0.53-0.85, respectively. Therefore, the DayCent model can be expected to capture the peaks of N2O and CO2 emissions from the farmland after fertilization and precipitation. A better simulation was achieved in the N2O, CH4, and CO2 emissions from the maize cropping systems under different atmospheric CO2 concentrations. The simulation showed that the elevated CO2 promoted the GHGs emissions from the farmland. But there was no change in the GHGs emission dynamics during the maize growth period. An increasing trend was found in the air temperature, precipitation, and atmospheric CO2 concentration under the future climate scenarios of SSP126 and SSP245. Furthermore, there was an increase in the average annual emission rates of greenhouse gas from 2021 to 2060, compared with the period of 2001-2020. The mean annual rates of N2O and CO2 emission also increased by 22.8% and 24.9%, while 6.7% and 8.0%, respectively, whereas, the uptake of CH4 in the maize farmland decreased by 13.6% and 13.4%. A comprehensive analysis demonstrated that the maize farmland can be acted as a source of GHGs emissions under the future climate scenarios of SSP126 and SSP245 in the Loess Plateau. It is a high demand to optimize nitrogen fertilizer management and farmland tillage practices for greenhouse gas emission reduction under future climate change. The finding can provide the basic data support to develop agricultural countermeasures under climate change.

       

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