小麦模型算法集成平台在华北平原区的适应性评价

    Adaptability of wheat model algorithms integration platform in North China Plain

    • 摘要: 为评价小麦模型算法集成平台(wheat model algorithms integration platform, WMAIP)在华北平原区的适应性,该研究利用华北平原区4个典型试验站多年试验数据,对WMAIP组成的16个模型进行调参和验证,并利用归一化均方根误差(normalized root mean squared error, NRMSE)选择最优模型,最后评价WMAIP集成模型在华北平原区的适应性。WMAIP中组合的16个模型均能有效地模拟土壤水分动态和冬小麦生长发育指标。发育期模拟误差小于4.2%;2 m土层土壤贮水量模拟误差小于7.0%;生物量和产量模拟误差分别在17.3%~23.7%和10.8%~20.8%之间。单个模型的模拟性能不稳定,调参与验证结果的最优模型存在差异。模型集成可降低华北平原区冬小麦产量的模拟误差,用于集成的模型数量越多,模拟误差越小,选择6个模型进行集成就可获得近似田间试验的模拟误差。以16个组合模型模拟结果的均值作为集成模型的结果,得到生物量和产量的模拟误差分别为18.7%和11.8%。结果表明,WMAIP在华北平原区有较好的适应性,可用于华北平原区小麦生产管理和气候变化影响评估。

       

      Abstract: Wheat model algorithms integration platform (WMAIP) has been integrated various algorithms from the different modules, including CERES-Wheat, APSIM-Wheat, WOFOST, SWAT, AquaCrop, and WheatSM, in order to simulate the soil water stress and winter wheat growth and development indices. The WMAIP can be potential to the prospects of application in the wheat model algorithm comparison and improvement, integrated simulation, and climate change impact assessment. The WMAIP verification and algorithm comparison have been carried out to focus mainly on a single site so far. The platform can be expected to guide the water management of local winter wheat. However, the current WMAIP cannot evaluate in the regional multi-point production of winter wheat. Therefore, it is a high demand to evaluate the adaptability of WMAIP in North China Plain (NCP). In this study, two algorithms were selected from the different modules in WMAIP. The phenology algorithm included the clock model of WheatSM module and the thermal time of APSIM-Wheat module, whereas, the biomass algorithm contained the carbon assimilation of WOFOST and canopy photosynthesis of WheatSM model, and the water stress algorithm consisted of the actual to potential transpiration ratio of CERES-Wheat model and the water supply to demand ratio of APSIM-Wheat model. 16 combined models were formed to combine the different algorithms from different modules using WMAIP. These models were verified using experimental data from four typical NCP experimental stations for several years. The optimal model was selected using the normalized root mean squared error (NRMSE). Finally, the adaptability of WMAIP integrated model in the NCP was evaluated to simulate the soil water dynamics, as well as the growth and development indicators of winter wheat. The results showed that all 16 models using the WMAIP platform were effectively simulated these parameters, with a simulation error of the development period below 4.2% and the soil water storage in the 2 m soil layer below 7.0%. The simulation errors of biomass and yield were ranged from 17.3% to 23.7% and 10.8% to 20.8%, respectively. However, the simulation performance of a single model was unstable, and there were differences between the calibration and validation for the optimal model. Nevertheless, the model integration was significantly reduced the simulation error of winter wheat yield in the NCP. Meanwhile, the simulation errors were similar to the field experiments using the integration of six models. Overall, the WMAIP ensemble model was able to simulate the response of winter wheat yield to the sowing date and irrigation treatment in the NCP. Among them, the NRMSE of biomass and yield values were 18.7% and 11.8%, respectively. The multi-year experimental data was effectively evaluated the WMAIP simulation on the winter wheat growth and development in different years, sowing dates, and irrigation treatments in the North China Plain. The excellent adaptability was achieved in the NCP for the wheat production management and climate change impact assessment.

       

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