中国广义农业水土资源匹配及利用状况动态评价

    Dynamic evaluation of the matching degree and utilization condition of generalized agricultural water and arable land resources in China

    • 摘要: 作为农业发展的核心要素,水土资源匹配态势与利用程度决定着中国农业可持续发展及食物安全。为优化中国农业水土资源配置,该研究基于2000—2020年31个省市的统计数据,采用基尼系数评价农业水土匹配状况,提出广义农业水土匹配系数揭示各省农业水土资源匹配状况及配比程度,联合匹配特征与水土利用状况确定各省农业水土资源利用类型区。结果表明:1)研究期内,中国灌溉水与耕地分布差距较大(基尼系数均值0.424),匹配情况变差;广义农业水资源与耕地资源分布相对合理(基尼系数均值为0.360),无显著变化趋势。地理区及省际间农业水土匹配程度存在较大差异。华北、西北和东北地区匹配状况为“土多水少”,华东、华中和西南地区匹配状况为“水多土少”,广东(广义农业水土匹配系数均值为2.06)和云南(广义农业水土匹配系数均值为1.02)匹配程度分别为各省市最低和最高,匹配状况均为“水多土少”;2)农业水土资源利用程度空间异质性明显,垦殖率东南高西北低,农业水资源利用程度北高南低;3)吉林、新疆、江苏水土资源配置情况变差(转为低匹配高开发区),北京水土资源配置情况有所好转(转为高匹配低开发区)。研究结果能够为国家农业水土资源优化配置相关决策提供支撑,对实现国家食物安全及农业可持续发展具有重要意义。

       

      Abstract: Water and land resources are the core elements of agricultural development, and their matching situation and degree of utilization determine agricultural sustainability and food security in China. In order to promote the optimal allocation of agricultural water and land resources in China, based on the statistical data for the 31 provinces in the mainland of China from 2000 to 2020, this study dynamically evaluated the matching degree of agricultural water and arable land resources according to the generalized agricultural water and land resources matching index and Gini index, determined the agricultural water and land resources zoning by integrating their matching degree and the utilization condition. The results showed that: 1) During the study period, there was a large gap between the distribution of irrigation water and arable land in China, with the mean Gini index calculated as 0.424, and the matching situation had deteriorated. The distribution of generalized agricultural water resources and arable land resources was relatively reasonable, with the mean Gini index calculated as 0.360, and the change was relatively stable. Great differences on the matching degree existed between provinces and geographic areas. The matching conditions in North China, Northeast and Northwest were "more land and less water", and the matching conditions in East China, Central China and Southwest were "more water and less land". The average values of the generalized agricultural water and land resources matching index were 2.06 for Guangdong and 1.02 for Yunnan, presenting the lowest and highest matching degrees among the provinces, respectively. The variation in the generalized agricultural water and land resources matching index increased with the value of the matching index, and the values of the matching index were related to the share of precipitation, showing a first increasing and then decreasing trend with the increase of the share of precipitation. 2) The utilization degree of agricultural water resources fluctuated with the abundance and decline of water resources from 2000 to 2020.The spatial heterogeneity of agricultural water and land resources utilization was obvious, with the reclamation rate generally "high in the southeast and low in the northwest" and the utilization degree of agricultural water resources "high in the north and low in the South". Especially, the reclamation rates in Henan and Shandong were more than 40%, while those in the northwest were less than 10%. And the utilization degrees of agricultural water resources in Tianjin (78%) and Hebei (74%) were higher than the development and utilization limit in 2020. 3) The agricultural water and land resources zoning in 11 provinces had changed from 2000 to 2020. The allocation of water and land resources in Jilin, Xinjiang and Jiangsu provinces deteriorated to the type of low matching high utilization zoning, while the allocation of water and land resources in Beijing improved to the type of high matching low utilization zoning. The main reason for the zoning changes was the change of matching degree for Xinjiang and Jiangsu and the changes in the utilization degree of water and land resources for Beijing and Jilin. As of 2020, 5 provinces, including Hebei, Shanxi, Jiangsu, Jilin and Xinjiang, belonged to the type of low matching and high utilization zoning, presenting the worst allocation of water and land resources, while 8 provinces, such as Beijing, Shaanxi, Sichuan and Qinghai, belonged to the type of high matching and low utilization, presenting good allocation of water and land resources. The results can provide support for the relevant decision making of the optimal allocation of agricultural water and land resources in China and are of great significance to achieve national food security and agricultural sustainable development.

       

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