基于两种MCDM的四川汶川县农村环境保护和社会经济综合发展评估

    Assessing integrated development of rural environmental protection and socio-economy at Wenchuan County of Sichuan in China based on two multicriteria decision making methods

    • 摘要: 科学全面的综合评估,是引导农村环境保护和社会经济综合发展方向的先决条件。该研究通过VIKOR与TOPSIS两种方法,分别对地处生态脆弱且地位重要的川西北汶川县,展开行政村尺度的环境保护和社会经济综合发展评估。结果表明:1)相较于TOPSIS方法,综合考虑群体效应(整体综合发展水平)和个体遗憾(发展制约因素)的VIKOR评估方法,对本地的综合发展评估更全面、深入;2)VIKOR方法评估得到汶川县整体综合发展水平较高,无论乡镇还是行政村尺度均呈现出显著空间分异特征,综合发展水平高值区沿县域西北-中部-东南一线分布,综合发展水平低值区主要集中于县域东北及中南部。3)TOPSIS方法评估得到汶川县整体综合发展水平处于中等,综合发展水平高值区沿县域西北-中部-西南一线分布,综合发展水平低值区与VIKOR方法评估结果一致。4)就评估结果而言,基于VIKOR方法因综合考虑了整体发展水平与短板因素,可能使部分行政村的综合发展水平差异缩小;TOPSIS方法则因未考虑正、负理想解之间的相对重要性,可能导致“逆序”问题。两种方法评估得到的主要差异聚焦于综合发展优秀区。5)借助VIKOR方法考虑个体遗憾的特点,认识到生态保育及村民自治水平是限制汶川县农村综合发展的两大关键制约因素,其中村民自治能力对于综合发展的提升发挥着重要作用。

       

      Abstract: Integrated rural environmental and socio-economic development (IDRES) refers to the strategic vision of ecological civilization, in order to deeply anchor in the unique socio-cultural and ecological system. A delicate balance can be required to determine the natural confines of the environment and resources for optimal human-centric concepts. The guiding line can also be involved to respect the environmental thresholds and champion human-led innovations using either adaptive strategies or directly addressing developmental constraints. Various decision-making tools have been tailored for varied scenarios. Among them, the TOPSIS and VIKOR methods have presented positive performance across multiple disciplines in the field test, particularly in the specific context of IDRES, due to their better computation and objectivity. It is necessary for a full comprehensive evaluation during this time. Taking Wenchuan County in northwest Sichuan as a study area, an evaluation framework was proposed to characterize the ecological vulnerability with the strategic importance. This matrix was intricately woven into the ecological dynamics with societal implications for the high precision of game theory combination weighting. The twin prisms of TOPSIS and VIKOR were then utilized to dissect the IDRES landscape, in order to potentially catalyze the ecological renaissance. Several implications were obtained: 1) The VIKOR offered an edge over the TOPSIS, due to the intrinsic depth and inclusiveness. The overarching group objectives were harmonized with the nuances of individual challenges, thus exceptionally tailoring for the holistic IDRES evaluations. 2) The IDRES profile was clear behind the VIKOR. Spatial delineations of the villages were seamlessly connected from the northwest, and then cut through the central heartland into the southeast. By contrast, the dominant challenge of villages was pepper production in the northeastern and south-central terrains. 3) The TOPSIS presented a much more promising potential, indicating the IDRES progress on a moderate platform. Interestingly, the spatial patterns were identified in the high-performing villages, fully meeting the insights from the VIKOR. 4) The assessment also demonstrated that the VIKOR approach was better suitable for the disparities across different village evaluations. Nevertheless, the TOPSIS was possible to introduce some anomalies with the "reverse order" behavior, especially without considering the relative importance of ideal solutions. The outstanding differences between TOPSIS and VIKOR methods can greatly contribute to exemplary integrated development. 5) The individual challenges were dissected to identify the twin anchors of IDRES trajectory for ecological stewardship and villagers' self-governance. Therefore, the autonomy of villagers can serve as one of the most essential elements in the robust IDRES journey, with no emphasis on just a footnote. This exploration can be used to clarify the method preferences suitable for the subtle rural evaluations, particularly for the strategic blueprint for rural ecological revitalization. This roadmap can be expected for the empowerment and autonomy of villagers in sustainable progress.

       

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