高标准农田建设政策对种植结构影响的模型评估

    Model evaluation of the impact of high-standard farmland construction policy on planting structure

    • 摘要: 为评估高标准农田建设政策对农业种植结构的影响与政策的传导路径,利用2005—2017年中国省级面板数据,构建连续型双重差分模型(differences-in-differences model,DID)和两阶段估计模型,检验高标准农田建设的政策效应与作用机制。结果发现:1)高标准农田建设政策对种植结构“趋粮化”有正向促进作用,平均提高7.5%的粮食作物种植比例;2)政策的动态影响分析表明,随着高标准农田建设的范围和规模扩大,政策效应随着时间推移逐渐增强;3)作用机制分析表明,政策实施通过扩大农地流转规模、新增农机总动力和提高粮食种植专业化水平3条路径,推动种植结构“趋粮化”。因此,地方政府应严格落实高标准农田建设规划,稳健发展农地流转市场,提升农业机械化和农业社会化服务水平,鼓励粮食种植专业化,以实现高标准农田建设“藏粮于地”的政策效应。

       

      Abstract: Stable and efficient grain production has been one of the most important challenges in modern agriculture in recent years. Agricultural planting structure has always been in the dynamic adjustment between "non-grain" and "grain-oriented" in China. The incentive effect of various subsidies on grain production has gradually weakened with market-oriented reforms, as well as the ever-increasing production and operation modes. The cost-effective public investment can be expected to serve as a policy tool for the long-term national food security. The construction of high-standard farmland is of great significance to optimize the agricultural planting structure in the various regions. In this study, a quasi-natural experiment was performed on China's high-standard farmland construction policy that was launched in 2010. China's provincial panel data was selected between 2005 and 2017. A continuous differences-in-differences model was constructed with the interaction of the high-standard farmland construction area. The core explanatory variable was utilized as the dummy variable for the duration of policy implementation. An empirical test was then carried out to determine the impact of the high-standard farmland construction policy on the "grain-oriented" evolution of the planting structure. Furthermore, the mechanism variables were introduced, such as the scale of farmland circulation, the increase of total agricultural machinery power, and the level of grain planting specialization. The inherent mechanism and transmission path were then revealed using a two-stage estimation model. The results showed: 1) The baseline regression analysis showed that the high-standard farmland construction policy posed a positive effect on the "grain-oriented" planting structure, which increased the proportion of grain crop planting by an average of 7.5%. Four methods were used for robustness testing, including placebo testing by changing the policy implementation time point, replacing core explanatory variables, considering the lag in policy implementation effects, and considering interfering policies such as grain subsidies, farmland rights confirmation, and agricultural insurance. 2) A joint hypothesis test was conducted on the coefficients before the policy implementation. The baseline model followed the parallel trend test. Furthermore, the dynamic impact analysis showed that there was an enhanced impact each year, as the scope and scale of high-standard farmland construction expanded. The cumulative effects were coupled with the ever-increasing soil fertility and agricultural infrastructure. 3) The impact mechanism analysis showed that the implementation of policies drove the evolution of planting structure towards "grain-oriented" via three pathways: the scale effect brought by land transfer, the improvement of grain planting revenue under mechanized operations, and the realization of external scale economy by upgrading the specialization level of grain planting. Therefore, high-standard farmland construction planning should be strictly implemented to actively adopt farmland engineering measures, such as field leveling, consolidation, and centralized contiguous management, in order to promote the transformation of low- and medium-yielding fields and comprehensive management of agricultural ecology. At the same time, the farmland transfer market can be expected to steadily develop for the high level of agricultural mechanization and agricultural socialization services, with emphasis on the specialization of grain planting. The policy impact of "storing grain on the ground" can also be realized in the construction of high-standard farmland.

       

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