中国农业生态效率时空格局演进及驱动力多维解析

    Evolution of multi-scale pattern and driving mechanism of agricultural eco-efficiency in China

    • 摘要: 识别中国县、市、省尺度下农业生态效率的时空动态演进格局及驱动机制,能够为扎实提升中国多尺度农业绿色生产能力提供量化支撑和决策指导作用。该研究以中国1965个县、330个市、31个省级行政区作为研究对象,运用超效率SBM模型、Natural Breaks分类法、核密度估计法、地理探测器等方法分析2010—2022年农业生态效率多尺度时空格局及驱动机制。结果表明:1)2010—2022年中国县级农业生态效率由0.880波动上升至0.889,市级尺度下由0.881波动上升至0.889,省级尺度下由0.864波动上升至0.880,四大区域逐渐形成东北最高、中部次之、东部一般、西部最小的发展特征,区域差异呈现县级较大、市级一般、省级较小的演进趋势。2)从格局演进特征看,农业生态效率空间格局随尺度的扩大而逐渐明朗,高水平区呈现沿海沿边的多极化发展特征,西部地区效率低洼现象显著。3)2010—2022年县、市、省尺度下农业生态效率核密度曲线均为单峰,波宽随尺度的缩小而缩窄,拖尾长度随尺度缩小而延长。4)不同驱动因素对县、市、省尺度下农业生态效率的空间分异格局表现出显著的异质性特征,县级政府应结合农业种植结构、耕地复种指数等资源本底作用着力推进农业生态效率提升,市、省两级政府应基于顶层设计关注城镇化水平、经济发展水平、农业化进程对农业生态效率的驱动影响作用。研究结果可为不同部门制定县、市、省尺度下的满足区域差异化发展的农业生态效率调控措施及农业空间布局优化政策提供科学依据。

       

      Abstract: Identifying the spatio-temporal evolution pattern and driving mechanism of agricultural eco-efficiency at the county, city and provincial scales in China can provide quantitative support and decision-making guidance for improving China's multi-scale agricultural green production capacity. In this study, 1965 counties, 330 cities, and 31 provincial-level administrative regions in China were taken as the research objects, and the multi levels spatio-temporal pattern and driving mechanism of agricultural eco-efficiency from 2010 to 2022 were analyzed by using the Super-SBM model, Natural Breaks method, Kernel Density Estimation, and Geographic Detectors. The results showed that: 1) From 2010 to 2022, the agricultural eco-efficiency fluctuated from 0.880 to 0.889 at the county level in China, it also increased from 0.881 to 0.889 at the city level and from 0.864 to 0.880 at the provincial level. In addition, the four regions gradually formed the development characteristics of the highest in the Northeast China, the second in the Central China, the middle in the East China, and the smallest in the West China, while the regional differences showed an evolutionary trend of larger at the county level, average at the city level, and smaller at the provincial level. 2) From the perspective of pattern evolution characteristics, the spatial pattern of agricultural eco-efficiency gradually becomes clear with the expansion of level, and the high-level areas presents the characteristics of multi-polar development along the coast, and the low-lying phenomenon of low efficiency in the Western China is significant. 3) The kernel density curve of agricultural eco-efficiency at the county, city and provincial levels showed a unimodal pattern from 2010 to 2022, with the wave width narrowing with the reduction of the level, and the tail length extending with the reduction of the level. 4) Different driving factors showed significant heterogeneity to the spatial differentiation pattern of agricultural eco-efficiency at the county, city and provincial levels. The county-level government should focus on the improvement of agricultural eco-efficiency based on the background role of agricultural planting structure and cultivated land multiple cropping index, and the city and provincial governments should pay attention to the driving effects of urbanization level, economic development level and agricultural process on agricultural eco-efficiency based on top-level design. In conclusion, the results of this study can provide a scientific basis for the government to formulate agricultural eco-efficiency control measures and agricultural spatial layout optimization policies at the county, city and provincial levels to meet regional differentiated development.

       

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