南方山区耕地林果化时空演变及影响机理

    Spatiotemporal evolution and impact mechanisms of cropland conversion to forest or fruit production in southern mountainous regions

    • 摘要: 为厘清南方山区耕地林果化时空演变趋势,探究耕地林果化的驱动机理,该研究以福建省为研究对象,截选2000—2020年5个时间节点,利用地形梯度分级、空间自相关分析等方法分析耕地“林果化”的时空演变特征,并借助最优参数地理探测器模型揭示其驱动因素。研究表明:1)福建省耕地林果化规模呈现“平稳发展转向骤增”的变化趋势,2015—2020年增加显著。2)水平空间上,林果化程度由“东高西低”向“西高东低”转变,Moran′s I 从0.396增加至0.672,林果化行为在空间上呈现明显的集聚特征。3)垂直地带上,耕地林果化呈现明显的地形梯度效应,主要发生在海拔0~1 000 m、坡度0°~2°和10°~20°、地形位指数为0.1~0.8的阴坡和半阴坡区域。4)不同时期耕地林果化空间分异的主导因素不同,其中高程、距居民点距离、GDP始终是稳定的驱动因子;各影响因子交互后对林果化的解释程度均呈现增强。耕地林果化演变是自然禀赋、区位条件和经济政策共同作用下的复杂结果,地方政府推行林果化管控过程中应基于耕地本底条件及驱动机理的不同进行分区整治,今后耕地占补平衡有必要推动平原林果地和山坡耕地空间置换。

       

      Abstract: This research aims to elucidate the spatiotemporal evolution trends of cropland conversion to forest or fruit production in the southern mountainous regions, with a specific focus on Fujian Province, China. A comprehensive approach was adopted over the study spanning five-time points from 2000 to 2020. A raster dataset comprised the land-use data, natural environmental variables, locational conditions, and economic policy factors. Subsequently, the cropland conversion to forest or fruit production was identified through spatial overlay analysis. The optimal parameter was utilized to geographically weight the detector model. The terrain gradient classification and spatial autocorrelation analysis horizontally and vertically determined the spatiotemporal features of cropland "conversion to forest or fruit production". Furthermore, the indicators were selected from three dimensions – natural environment, locational conditions, and economic policies – to detect the key factors and interactive influences on the significant cropland conversion to forest or fruit production. The research findings indicated the following key results: 1) Cropland conversion to forest or fruit production exhibited an overall trend of "steady development followed by a sudden increase." The fourth time period witnessed a significant surge, with the converted area reaching 98 670.24 hectares. The primary regions of conversion were gradually shifted from east to west, with an increasing number of counties with conversion rates exceeding 1%. There was a reduction in the large-area patches, as the number of patches increased. 2) Horizontally, the degree of conversion shared the transition from "higher in the east, lower in the west" to "higher in the west, lower in the east." Moran's I increased from 0.396 to 0.672, indicating a clear spatial clustering of the conversion behavior. 3) Vertically, the cropland conversion to forest or fruit production exhibited a distinct topographical gradient, primarily occurring at elevations between 0 and 1 000 m, slopes of 0°-2° and 10°-20°, and terrain position indices ranging from 0.1 to 0.8, particularly in regions with the shaded and semi-shaded slopes. 4) Multiple factors were dominated in the cropland conversion to forest or fruit production. At the single-factor impact level, the economic policy demonstrated a higher explanatory power, compared with the natural and locational factors. The impact of each factor varied in the different periods, but the elevation, distance to residential areas, and GDP consistently emerged as the dominant factors with substantial explanatory power. At the multi-factor interaction level, there was mutual reinforcement among factors, with the more pronounced interactions between different types of factors within the same category. Notably, the interaction between locational factors and other elements exhibited a particularly significant enhancement. The cropland conversion to forest or fruit production complicatedly evolved from the combined influences of natural endowment, locational conditions, and economic policies. The differentiated management should be adopted in the control measures for the cropland conversion, according to the baseline conditions of cropland and the diverse driving mechanisms involved. Additionally, the cropland occupation and replenishment can be balanced to promote the spatial displacement between plain areas with forest or fruit production and hilly cropland. The research findings can offer valuable scientific insights for the coordinated development of cropland production and diversified agriculture in the southern mountainous regions.

       

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