基于NGO-CNN-SVM的高标准农田灌溉工程施工成本预测

    Predicting the construction cost of high standard farmland irrigation projects using NGO-CNN-SVM

    • 摘要: 为提高高标准农田项目施工成本的预测精度,控制施工成本在合理范围,减少投资风险,该研究从单体灌溉工程施工成本预测角度出发,通过随机森林(random forest,RF)筛选出高标准农田灌溉工程施工成本的关键影响因素,结合卷积神经网络(convolutional neural networks,CNN)和支持向量机(support vector machine,SVM)两种模型的优点,通过北方苍鹰优化算法(northern goshawk optimization,NGO)对模型里的惩罚因子和核参数进行寻优,构建基于NGO-CNN-SVM的施工成本预测模型。通过辽宁省2018—2023年高标准农田工程中灌溉工程的施工成本数据,选取样本决定系数R2、平均绝对误差MAE、平均绝对百分比误差MAPE和均方根误差RMSE作为精度指标进行分析,结果表明:基于NGO-CNN-SVM的施工成本预测模型在渠道工程中MAE低于0.615万元,RMSE低于0.512万元,R2达到0.968以上,相对误差小于4.210%;在进水闸工程中MAE低于0.610万元,RMSE低于0.536万元,R2达到0.966以上,相对误差小于4.410%;在桥涵工程中MAE低于0.494万元,RMSE低于0.477万元,R2达到0.970以上,相对误差小于3.548%,并相比较于反向传播神经网络,CNN和CNN-SVM模型,NGO-CNN-SVM模型的预测结果均最优。通过特征选择、模型融合、算法优化以及不同模型对比表明NGO-CNN-SVM模型具有更高的预测准确率和泛化性,可为高标准农田灌溉工程施工成本预测提供理论依据。

       

      Abstract: Construction cost is difficult to predict in high-standard farmland projects, due to the short construction period. In this study, the construction cost was predicted for the single-unit irrigation projects, in order to improve the prediction accuracy. The key influencing factors were then screened from the construction cost of high-standard farmland irrigation projects using random forest (RF). Then, convolutional neural networks (CNN) and support vector machine (SVM) were combined to construct a CNN-SVM-based prediction model, in order to improve the prediction accuracy over a single model. The penalty parameter C and kernel function parameter g of the CNN-SVM model were optimized by northern goshawk optimization (NGO). The NGO shared the higher convergence speed and stronger optimization, compared with the rest. Finally, the prediction model (NGO-CNN-SVM) was obtained for the construction cost of high-standard farmland irrigation projects. The data was collected from the irrigation project in the high-standard farmland in Liaoning Province from 2018 to 2023. Coefficient of determination (R2), mean absolute error (MAE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and root mean square error (RMSE) were taken as the accuracy indexes for analysis. The results show that the NGO-CNN-SVM model of construction cost in the channel project shared the MAE and RMSE lower than 0.615 and 0.512 million yuan, respectively, where the R2 reached more than 0.968, and the relative error was less than 4.21%; In the project of the inlet sluice gate, the MAE and RMSE were lower than 0.610 and 0.536 million yuan, respectively, where the R2 reached more than 0.966, and the relative error was less than 4.41%; In the project of bridge and culvert, the MAE and RMSE were less than 0.494 and 0.477 million yuan, where the R2 reached more than 0.970, and the relative error was less than 3.548%. Taking channel engineering as an example, the deep learning network model (CNN) was reduced by about 34%, 20%, 33% in the MAE, RMSE, MAPE, and improved by 3% for the R2, respectively, compared with the traditional back propagation neural networks. A higher efficiency of prediction was achieved in the less complexity and nonlinear data dimension. In addition, the CNN-SVM model was significantly reduced by about 40%, 46%, 41% in the MAE, RMSE, MAPE, and improved by 4% for the R2, respectively, compared with the model CNN, indicating better performance than that of the single model. Compared with the CNN-SVM model, the MAE, RMSE, MAPE of the NGO-CNN-SVM model were reduced by about 22%, 25%, 17%, and improved by 4% for the R2, respectively, indicating that the randomly generated hyperparameters led to the low generalization and prediction accuracy. The optimal optimization of the hyperparameters had further improved the performance of the improved model. In summary, the feature selection, model fusion, optimization, and comparison of different models show that the NGO-CNN-SVM model shared higher prediction accuracy and generalization. The model can be applied to directly establish the index system, in order to estimate high-standard farmland projects. The finding can provide the theoretical basis and support to formulate the construction cost and budget quota of irrigation projects in high-standard farmland.

       

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