月尺度IMERG降水产品在广西的精度评估

    Evaluating the precision of monthly IMERG precipitation products in Guangxi of China

    • 摘要: 为评估月尺度IMERG(V06)降水产品在广西地区的精度,将广西划为少雨区(年均降水量≤1300 mm,Ⅰ区)、中雨区(年均降水量>13001700 mm,Ⅱ区)、多雨区(年均降水量>1700 mm,Ⅲ区)3个区域,以91个观测站2001—2020年逐月降水量为参考,采用相关系数(correlation coefficient,CC)、均方根误差(root mean square error,RMSE)和相对偏差(relative error,RE)3个定量指标,从不同空间尺度、时间尺度、降水量区间等维度分析Early、Late、Final系列产品的精度特征。结果发现:1)Early、Late产品精度特征相似,整体上低估降水;而Final产品整体高估降水。2)降水量增加引起各系列产品CC下降、RMSE上升、RE下降;Early、Late、Final产品对月降水量估测的偏差阈值分别为271、272和351 mm,实测月降水量低于该阈值时被高估,反之则被低估。3)IMERG产品在降水量多的区域相关性更强,离散度更高,在Ⅰ、Ⅱ区表现为高估,在Ⅲ区表现为低估。4)产品精度在降水较少的旱季和旱年更高;Early、Late产品在秋季表现相对较好,但有较明显的低估;Final产品在冬季表现最佳。5)年际间,Final产品精度有下降趋势,Early、Late产品估测偏差愈发趋向高估。综上所述,广西地区月尺度IMERG产品精度受降水量影响显著,在不同地区、不同时段存在较大差异,应用时需针对具体区域、时间评估其精度局限性。

       

      Abstract: Accurate monitoring and assessment of precipitation distribution can be vital to effectively manage water resources and disaster preparedness for high productivity in modern agriculture against global climate change. Among them, Guangxi in southern China is in a monsoonal climate. A great challenge remains on the notable temporal and spatial fluctuations in precipitation, particularly for agricultural productivity and ecological integrity. The purpose of this study is to assess the suitability and precision of the monthly IMERG (V06) precipitation dataset in the Guangxi region. A scientific foundation was then established to manage the local water resources and disaster preparedness. The study area was characterized by low rainfall (≤1300 mm/a), moderate rainfall (>1300-1700 mm/a), and high rainfall (>1700 mm/a). The performance of the IMERG Early, Late, and Final products was also elucidated across the different zones. The baseline data of monthly precipitation was collected from 91 meteorological stations in the period from 2001 to 2020. Three quantitative indexes were employed, including the metrics-correlation coefficient (CC), root mean square error (RMSE), and relative error (RE). A comprehensive analysis was conducted on the precision of IMERG products at the various spatial and temporal scales, as well as precipitation intervals. Results indicate that: 1) Both Early and Late products exhibited similar precision to underestimate the overall precipitation, whereas the Final product tended to overestimate the precipitation. 2) The increase in precipitation caused a decrease in the CC and RE for all products, while an increase in RMSE. The deviation thresholds after monthly precipitation estimation were 271, 272, and 351 mm for the Early, Late, and Final products, respectively. Once the actual monthly precipitation fell below these thresholds, an overestimation occurred and vice versa. 3) Spatially, the IMERG products demonstrated that there was a stronger correlation and greater variability in the areas with the higher precipitation, with the overestimation in the regions under low or moderate rainfall, and the underestimation under high rainfall. 4) Temporally, the precision of products was higher in the dry season during drought years. The Early and Late products performed adequately in autumn, indicating noticeable underestimations. The final product excelled in winter. 5) A decreasing trend was found in the precision of the Final product over the whole years, whereas, an ever-growing overestimation was in the Early and Late products. In conclusion, the precision of the monthly-scale IMERG product was notably influenced by the precipitation, indicating considerable discrepancies in the various regions and temporal scopes. Hence, it is recommended to conduct customized evaluations of product precision for the specific regions and time frames in practical applications. This finding can serve as a significant reference to monitor and manage the water resources for beneficial insights into the climate zones.

       

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