基于PCA-LM-NARX的禽舍室温预测模型

    Research on poultry house room temperature prediction model based on PCA-LM-NARX

    • 摘要: 采用隧道式通风系统的禽舍室内温度容易受自然环境变化以及家禽日龄影响,难以在线准确预测。为了准确预测禽舍室内温度,该研究结合主成分分析法(principal component analysis,PCA)、莱温伯格-马夸特算法(Levenberg-Marquardt method,LM)和带外部输入的非线性自回归模型(nonlinear auto-regressive model with exogenous inputs,NARX),提出了一种PCA-LM-NARX的方法用于在线构建禽舍室内温度预测模型。该方法利用主成分分析提取禽舍室内温度的关键环境变量,构建基于关键环境变量的NARX神经网络结构室温预测模型,并利用LM算法对神经网络参数进行优化计算。考虑到禽舍室温变化的滞后特性,PCA-LM-NARX方法利用贝叶斯信息准则设计NARX神经网络的最优延迟阶数。建模过程中PCA-LM-NARX方法采用移动窗法在线更新室温预测模型参数,以适应不同日龄的家禽和自然环境的变化。试验结果显示,基于PCA-LM-NARX方法构建的室温预测模型预测未来5、15、30 min温度值的平均绝对误差大小分别为0.10770.15390.2024 ℃;在i5-12500H型CPU上运行建模程序,平均建模用时为0.3321 s。研究结果表明,PCA-LM-NARX方法可以构建高精度禽舍室温预测模型,并实现模型参数的快速在线更新。

       

      Abstract: The room temperature of tunnel-ventilated poultry houses is easily affected by variations in the natural environment and the age of the poultry and is difficult to accurately predict online. In order to achieve accurate prediction of poultry house room temperature and improve the accuracy of temperature regulation, this paper proposes a PCA-LM-NARX method for online construction of a poultry house room temperature prediction model. The resulting NARX neural network model can accurately predict future short-term indoor temperature changes based on recent poultry house environmental data. The PCA-LM-NARX method selects the environmental variables that affect the temperature of the poultry house based on the energy balance equation of the tunnel ventilation poultry house temperature system, and uses principal component analysis (PCA) method to screen out the key factors that affect the indoor temperature of the poultry house from multiple environmental variables, construct a room temperature prediction model with a NARX neural network structure, and use the LM algorithm to optimize the model parameters. Taking into account the hysteresis characteristics of indoor temperature changes in poultry houses caused by heat conduction delay, air circulation delay, control equipment adjustment delay, evaporative cooling, etc., the optimal delay order of the NARX neural network was designed using the Bayesian information criterion. The normalization method and rolling statistical method are used to preprocess the measured data. During the modeling process, in order to adapt to poultry of different ages and environmental changes, the PCA-LM-NARX method uses the moving window method to remove old data with a large time span from the current moment in the neural network training set, and add new data with a small time span from the current moment, thereby achieving real-time updates to the training set and reducing the negative impact of old data on model prediction performance. The modeling program is divided into two parts: offline modeling and online prediction. The offline modeling part is installed on the host computer and mainly updates the parameters of the poultry house room temperature prediction model in real time based on the data in the moving window. When the LM algorithm calculation results meet the accuracy requirements, the new model parameters are transmitted to the field controller through the fieldbus network. The online prediction program and room temperature prediction model are stored in the on-site controller and used for online prediction of poultry house temperature. The field controller transmits the new training data set to the host computer through the fieldbus network for updating the prediction model parameters. Experimental results show that the poultry house room temperature prediction model established based on the PCA-LM-NARX method can predict the temperature values in the next 5 minutes, 15 minutes, and 30 minutes online, with the mean absolute error (MAE) respectively of 0.1077℃, 0.1539℃ and 0.2024℃. The shortest average modeling time of running the modeling program on the i5-12500H CPU is 0.3321s, which can achieve rapid real-time update of model parameters. The results of this study show that the PCA-LM-NARX method can be used to construct a high-precision tunnel-ventilated poultry house room temperature prediction model and achieve rapid online update of model parameters.

       

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