秦岭山区潜在蒸散发时空变化及典型流域径流归因分析

    Spatiotemporal variation of potential evapotranspiration in the Qinling Mountain Areas and attribution analysis of typical watershed runoff

    • 摘要: 山区流域作为水源涵养地,由于地形、植被和气候因子间的复杂相互作用,与平原流域相比,其对气候变化更为敏感,在水资源稳定性和生态环境保护等方面面临着更严峻的挑战。为掌握山区流域水文变化规律,该研究以秦岭山区及其内部6个典型流域为研究对象,基于1965—2019年79个气象站日气象数据和6个典型流域控制水文站逐年径流数据以及年太阳黑子数、大气环流指数、Nino3.4指数,采用Penman-Monteith公式、改进的Mann-Kendall趋势检验法、微分法、交叉小波变换和时变Budyko框架分析了秦岭山区年潜在蒸散发(potential evapotranspiration,PET)的时空变化特征,计算了年PET对不同气候因子的敏感性,探讨了年PET变化的可能原因,最后量化了PET等不同因素对径流在不同时期变化的贡献率。结果表明:1)在1965—2019年间,秦岭山区的多年平均PET和气候因子表现出明显的空间分布差异和变化趋势。多年平均PET和日照时数呈现东北高、西南低的空间分布格局,最大和最小相对湿度则在空间上表现出相反的趋势变化特征。此外,在年尺度上,气温普遍上升,而日照时数和风速在大面积范围内有所下降。2)年PET在草原植被区对多个气候因子的敏感性最高。地形因子、太阳黑子活动、大气环流和海温变化等因素对年PET的影响时段和范围存在差异。98.73%气象站点的年PET与北极涛动指数呈现负相关,呈现显著负相关的比例高达20.25%(P<0.05)。这证明了北极涛动通过影响区域性的气候模式,间接影响了该地区的蒸散发过程。特别是在北极涛动的负位相时,常常伴随冷空气南下,导致该区域温度下降,蒸散发减少。随着海拔和坡度的增加,PET表现出极显著的减少趋势(P<0.001)。3)在6个典型流域中,流域径流变化主要受降水和下垫面条件的驱动,尤其是植被变化对径流的影响逐渐增强。研究成果将支撑山区流域水资源可持续利用,服务黄河与长江流域的生态保护与高质量发展。

       

      Abstract: Mountain watersheds, as the critical regional water sources, are highly sensitive to climate change. It is a high demand to investigate the hydrological variations in mountain watersheds for the protection of regional ecological environments and sustainable water resources. This study aims to explore the spatiotemporal variation in the potential evapotranspiration and attribution analysis of typical watershed runoff in the Qinling Mountain Areas. Six typical watersheds were selected as the research objects. Meteorological data was daily collected from 79 meteorological stations from 1965 to 2019. Annual runoff data was from the hydrological control stations in the watersheds, together with the annual sunspot numbers, atmospheric circulation indices, and the Nino3.4 index, such as the Penman-Monteith equation. The modified Mann-Kendall trend test was employed to analyze the spatiotemporal variations in the potential evapotranspiration (PET) across the study area using cross-wavelet transforms and the time-varying Budyko framework. PET sensitivity was assessed on various climatic factors to explore the potential drivers of PET changes. Finally, the contributions of PET were quantified for the runoff variations across different periods. The results indicated: 1) There were some significant differences in spatial distribution and trends in the multi-year average PET and climate factors from 1965 to 2019. Multi-year average PET and sunlight hours (SH) exhibited a spatial pattern of higher in the northeast and lower in the southwest. While the maximum and minimum relative humidity (RHmax and RHmin) showed the opposite trends. Additionally, the temperature generally increased on an annual scale, while the SH and wind speed (WS) decreased across a broad area. The average annual WS of all vegetation types was below 1.8 m/s. The significant reduction in the annual WS was concentrated mainly in the vegetation types, such as the broad-leaved forest, cultivated vegetation, shrub, coniferous forest, and grass (P<0.05). It was also found that the differential modes were used to accurately simulate the annual variation of PET in the Qinling Mountain Area on an annual scale, with the coefficient of certainty R2 (0.96) between the calculated and the actual value. 2) The annual PET and climatic factors exhibited different patterns of change across various vegetation types. Specifically, there was a significant decrease in the SH in the broadleaf forests and cultivated vegetation areas, with the spatially uneven distribution of relative humidity change trends (P<0.05). The sensitivity of annual PET to annual SH showed an overall pattern of low in the north and high in the east and west in spatial distribution, with a value range of -0.04~0.04. However, there was no spatial distribution pattern in the sensitivity of PET to RHmax. The highest sensitivity of annual PET to multiple climatic factors was found in the grassland vegetation. There was a great variation in the duration and scope of the influence of topographical factors, solar activity, and atmospheric circulation on the annual PET. The PET showed a highly significant decreasing trend with the increasing elevation and slope (P<0.001). Among them, 98.73% of meteorological stations shared a negative correlation between annual PET and the Arctic Oscillation index (AO index), and 20.25% shared a significant negative correlation (P<0.05). 3) Furthermore, the three northern foothill watersheds showed a decreasing trend in the annual runoff depth among the six typical watersheds. While two of the three southern foothill watersheds exhibited an increasing trend. There was a generally relatively small impact of PET on the runoff variation in the different typical watersheds and sliding window periods. The variation in the vegetation was the primary driving factor on the watershed runoff. The sustainable utilization of water resources in the mountain watersheds can greatly contribute to ecological protection and high-quality development in the Yellow River and Yangtze River Basins. Continuous monitoring and adaptive management were also highlighted in response to the future climates. The multiple types of data and reliable hydrological analysis were integrated to fully understand the complex interactions between climatic factors and hydrological processes in mountainous regions.

       

    /

    返回文章
    返回