多目标协同下农产品主产区县域国土空间格局优化

    Optimization of county-level territorial spatial patterns in major agricultural production areas under multi-objective synergy

    • 摘要: 优化农产品主产区县域国土空间格局对于实施主体功能区战略和保障国家粮食安全至关重要。该研究从“规模—结构—布局—策略”4个维度构建优化框架,并以山西省祁县为例,将粮食安全、生态安全、经济发展、碳减排与社会保障作为优化目标,耦合灰色多目标模型与GeoSOS-FLUS模型进行格局优化。并在此基础上进行县域功能分区,并提出相应的发展策略。研究结果表明:1)通过结构优化,到2035年,耕地将保持在38320.600 hm2;林地将增加至17172.400 hm2;草地将减少至21485.800 hm2;水域将增加至159.500 hm2;建设用地将增加至8214.700 hm2。经济效益比2021年翻1番,碳排放减少15%。2)通过GeoSOS-FLUS模型优化布局,林地布局更集中提升碳汇能力,耕地下山提高耕地质量,建设用地集中促进经济流通,格局优化为区域可持续发展奠定了空间基础。3)根据各乡镇的发展潜力,将县域分为农业生产、经济发展和碳汇功能3个区域,并实施差异化的发展策略。该方法不仅可以保障主体功能区战略和双碳目标在县级层面的落实,还可以为其他功能县域的国土空间优化提供参考。

       

      Abstract: Optimizing the land use spatial pattern of major agricultural production areas at the county level is of critical importance for implementing the national functional zoning strategy and ensuring food security. This paper constructs an optimization framework for the land use spatial pattern of major agricultural production areas, based on the four aspects of "scale-structure-layout-strategy." Taking Qixian County in Shanxi Province as an example, the optimization goals are defined as food security, ecological security, economic development, carbon reduction, and social security. The study couples the grey multi-objective model with the GeoSOS-FLUS model for optimization, and further divides the county into functional zones, proposing development strategies for each zone. The results are as follows: 1) Through structural optimization, by 2035, the area of arable land will remain at 38,320.6 hectares, ensuring food security; the area of forest land will increase to 17,172.4 hectares, enhancing carbon sequestration; grassland will decrease to 21,485.8 hectares, optimizing land use; the water area will increase to 159.5 hectares, improving ecological services; and construction land will expand to 8,214.7 hectares. The total economic output will increase by 1,097,676 million yuan compared to 2021. Net carbon emissions will be reduced by approximately 239,200 tons compared to the natural development trend, and 86,250 tons compared to 2021. Carbon intensity will decrease by 53.34% compared to 2021, and by 88.57% compared to 2005. These adjustments achieve multiple objectives in agricultural production, ecological protection, and economic development. 2) The GeoSOS-FLUS model layout simulation shows that the Kappa index reaches 0.870, with an overall accuracy of 0.910, indicating high precision and reliable results. After optimization, forest land is more concentrated and efficient, significantly improving carbon sequestration; the quality of arable land is enhanced, further ensuring food security. Construction land is more concentrated, promoting economic circulation. While safeguarding the functionality of major agricultural production areas, the optimized layout provides a solid spatial foundation for the region's sustainable development. 3) Based on the development potential of different townships, the county is divided into three zones: agricultural production, economic development, and carbon sequestration. The carbon sequestration zone aims to enhance carbon sequestration and protect ecosystems, relying on the establishment of ecological corridors and promoting ecological projects such as returning farmland to forest, grassland protection, and wetland restoration, while fostering low-carbon tourism and ecological agriculture. The economic development zone focuses on promoting the development of characteristic industry clusters, improving infrastructure, enhancing connectivity with the Taiyuan metropolitan area, and driving industrial restructuring and carbon reduction. The agricultural production zone prioritizes the protection of basic farmland and the improvement of arable land quality, develops characteristic agriculture, promotes the branding of Qixian pear, implements green and low-carbon agriculture, and builds modern agricultural industrial parks and rural infrastructure. This research focuses on optimizing the land use spatial pattern of major agricultural production areas at the county level, aiming to coordinate multiple objectives such as food security, economic development, carbon reduction, ecological security, and social security, and to achieve an organic integration of county functional zoning and multidimensional development. The differentiated development strategies proposed in this study provide clear guidance for local governments in formulating land use policies and territorial spatial planning. This research not only deepens the understanding of land use spatial optimization in functional counties but also offers valuable insights for optimizing other functional counties, and lays a solid foundation for agricultural modernization and the achievement of carbon neutrality goals.

       

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