中南半岛近20年农林转换及其活跃火贡献

    Land conversion between agriculture and forestry and its contributing role of active fires in Mainland Southeast Asia over the past two decades

    • 摘要: 农林转换(包括农进林退和农休林复)主导着中南半岛土地覆被/利用变化,其中火的使用扮演了重要角色。在人口、经济、土地利用政策等因素作用下,中南半岛农林转换与活跃火协调管理日趋重要。活跃火发生发展与农林转换所致土地覆被变化间的过程耦合与多尺度效应是气候变化重要议题。既有研究侧重对农林转换规模、强度、过程进行区域归因探索,在中南半岛层面特别是基于活跃火视角的农林转换诱因与贡献研究较为鲜见。基于2002—2021年MODIS土地覆被与火产品(活跃火、过火面积)数据,利用GIS渔网、核密度与Pearson相关分析等方法,研究揭示了中南半岛活跃火与农林转换所致土地覆被变化间的耦合关联,并评估了活跃火发生发展对农林转换不同过程的贡献程度。结果表明:1)中南半岛近20年近1/5区域土地覆被发生过变化,活跃火影响下其农进林退集中于边境、河流沿岸等,且南部低地平原的变化程度显著大于北部丘陵山区。2)活跃火发生强度与农进林退变化程度呈正相关,与农休林复变化表现为负相关。3)中南半岛活跃火发生对毁林的多年平均贡献率近占40%,对耕地扩张多年平均贡献率近占60%。该研究可从土地覆被/利用变化角度探索活跃火发生过程与发展机制提供新证据。

       

      Abstract: Agriculture and forestry conversion refers to land conversion between agriculture and forestry. This phenomenon is widely seen especially in the tropics. It is comprised of two main parts, namely, agricultural advance and forest retreat (AAFR), and agricultural fallow and forest recovery (AFFR). Agriculture and forestry conversion has dominated land cover and land use change in Mainland Southeast Asia (MSEA) in the past decades. Fire, including wildfire and man-made fire, plays a critical role in converting primary and secondary forest into cropland. By contrast, the practice of slash and burn also affects the recovery of forests in the tropics. Against the backdrop of climate change (e.g., high temperatures or drought), the risk of fire, especially extreme fire, is markedly elevated. Under the interplays of growing population, rapid economic development, and tighter land use policies, coordinated management of agro-forestry conversion and active fires is becoming increasingly important. Meanwhile, the process coupling and multi-scale effects between active fire occurrence and land cover change caused by agro-forestry conversion are important issues in climate change. A number of publications have focused on exploring the contributing roles of the scale, intensity, and process of cropland and forest conversion at the regional level. However, the contribution of active fires to land conversion between agriculture and forestry in the entire MSEA remains poorly investigated. With the datasets of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) land cover and fire products (active fire and burned area) during 2002-2021, the study reveals the coupled association between active fires and cropland-forest conversions in MSEA, and then evaluates the contributing role of active fire occurrence and development in agricultural advance and forest retreat using the GIS fishing nets, kernel densities, and Pearson correlation analysis. The results show that: (1) Under the impact of active fires, agricultural advance and forest retreat are widely seen in MSEA, particularly in the national border areas and major riverside areas. The degrees of land cover change in the southern lowland plains are significantly greater than those in the northern hilly and mountainous regions. (2) The intensity of active fires, quantified through the statistics of fire occurrence frequency (FOF), fire radiative power (FRP), and burned area (BA), is positively correlated with the degree of agricultural advance and forest retreat, and negatively correlated with agricultural fallow and forest recovery. Occurrence intensity of active fires shows positive correlation with the change scale of agricultural advance and forest retreat, and negative correlation with the change scale of agricultural fallow and forest recovery. (3) Fire is an important cause of land cover change between cropland and forest in MSEA, which significantly affects its direction and intensity. MODIS 1-km active fires account for nearly 40% of the average multi-year contribution to deforestation and nearly 60% of the average multi-year contribution to cultivated land expansion. This study not only provides new evidence and understanding to explore the process and mechanism of active fire development from the land cover/use change perspective, it also provides guidance for sustainable forest utilization, agricultural production practices, and active fire management in Mainland Southeast Asian countries.

       

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