中国城市土地利用碳赤字异质性特征及驱动因素的多维解析

    Heterogeneous characteristics and multi-dimensional analysis of the driving factors for urban land use carbon deficit in China

    • 摘要: 土地利用方式和管理模式的变化对陆地生态系统碳循环产生深远影响,探明土地利用碳赤字的演变趋势及其空间差异化的驱动因素,对于如期实现“双碳”目标及促进自然与社会绿色协同发展具有重要意义。该研究基于土地利用数据和社会统计数据,考虑土地类型、农田耕种、能源消耗、社会经济等多种因素,运用排放系数法、区域差异分析模型、时空地理加权回归模型等模型和空间分析方法,探究中国城市土地利用碳赤字的异质性特征,并从多维视角剖析其空间差异化的驱动因素。结果表明:1)研究时期内土地利用碳赤字呈倒“V”型波动下降趋势,试点城市的碳赤字均值较低,表明低碳试点城市建设取得成效,东北地区的碳赤字在研究期内显著下降,降幅为48.69%。2)研究时期内土地利用碳足迹和碳承载力的总体差异性呈增加趋势,土地利用碳赤字呈轻微下降趋势,总体差异系数减少0.0933,其中华北和华东地区的内部差异程度显著降低。3)不同驱动因素对土地利用碳赤字空间分布表现出显著的异质性特征,发达地区需着力推进资源高效利用和低碳技术研发工作,处于快速成长期的地区应引入新技术、改变资源配置和产业结构来科学减碳。研究结果可为缓解碳减排压力、加速低碳城市建设和科学助力国土空间低碳优化布局提供科学参考。

       

      Abstract: Land use pattern has posed a profound influence on the carbon cycle of terrestrial ecosystem in recent years. It is of great significance to explore the evolution trend of land use carbon deficit and the driving factors of spatial differentiation, in order to realize the goal of “dual carbon” on schedule. This study aims to determine the heterogeneity and driving factors of carbon deficit on the urban land use in China. The land use data and social statistics were taken from 2010 to 2019. The land use carbon footprint and carbon carrying capacity of 278 cities in China were calculated to consider the land type, crop carbon absorption and energy consumption using emission coefficient. According to the differentiated effects of regional social attributes, the carbon compensation coefficient was introduced to estimate the land use carbon deficit. The regional difference model was then used to explore the overall, inter-regional and intra-regional differences in the land use carbon footprint, carbon carrying capacity and carbon deficit in the study area. Finally, Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression model was used to explore the driving factors on the spatial differentiation of land use carbon deficit. From the perspectives of ecological environment construction and management effectiveness, the comprehensive utilization rate was obtained for the industrial solid waste, social and economic development, industrial structure, public infrastructure, and technologies. The results showed that: 1) The carbon footprint and deficit of land use showed an inverted “V” trend of fluctuation downward during the study period, while the carbon carrying capacity showed a slight fluctuation upward trend. The average carbon deficit of land use in the pilot cities was 39800 hm2 less than that of non-pilot cities, indicating the better construction of low-carbon pilot cities. There was the more serious carbon deficit in Northern China. Particularly, the carbon deficit decreased significantly in Northeast China. 2) The overall difference of land use carbon deficit in the study area showed a slightly increasing trend during the study period. This trend was then attributed to the differentiated development within the region. Furthermore, the inter-regional differences of land use carbon carrying capacity showed a slight increase at regional on the whole. On the contrary, there was the opposite trend in the inter-regional differences of land use carbon footprint and land use carbon deficit. Among them, the difference of land use carbon deficit changed the most in Northeast China. An increasing trend was found in the intra-regional differences of land use carbon footprint and land use carbon carrying capacity. While the intra-regional differences of land use carbon deficit showed a decreasing trend, and there was the significant decrease in the internal differences in Northern and Eastern China. 3) Different driving factors shared the significant spatial heterogeneity on the spatial distribution of carbon deficit. Specifically, the developed regions were required to promote the efficient use of resources and the low-carbon technologies. The new technologies can be introduced to scientifically reduce carbon emissions for the resource allocation and industrial structure in the regions under the rapid growth period. The findings can provide the scientific reference to reduce the pressure difference of carbon emission, and then accelerate the construction of low-carbon cities, in order to optimize the low-carbon layout of national space.

       

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