基于环境参数和深度学习模型的毛竹液流密度预测

    Prediction of moso bamboo sap flow based on environmental parameters and deep learning models

    • 摘要: 为了揭示环境因素对毛竹液流的影响以及毛竹液流密度与主要环境因子的关系,研究利用竹林环境参数和深度学习方法对毛竹液流进行建模和预测。针对同步采集的土壤湿度、土壤温度、空气湿度、空气温度、二氧化碳浓度、光照强度和毛竹液流密度数据,采用灰色关联分析度量多维环境时序信号与液流之间的相关性,提出一种组合深度学习模型FCN-GRU-TPA进行建模和预测,并考察模型的泛化能力。试验结果显示,光照强度、土壤温度和空气温度对液流密度呈现较强的相关性;用全部6种环境因子可以较好地预测液流密度,用3种相关性强的环境因子预测性能略有下降;按8:2和5:5两种比例分配建模和预测数据,后者在6种参数建模时性能尚可,但是在3种参数建模时性能有所下降;4种试验模式下平均归一化均方根误差NRMSE均小于4.00%,决定系数R2均大于0.90,且不同毛竹植株、不同时段数据的规律相同。研究表明,运用灰色关联分析和FCN-GRU-TPA模型,能够有效建立基于多种环境因子的毛竹液流预测模型,具有较高的预测精度和一定的稳健性。

       

      Abstract: Sap flow is one of the important physiological parameters of moso bamboo, reflecting the plant's utilization of water and its response to the environment. To explore the impact of environmental factors on moso bamboo sap flow and the relationship between sap flow density and key environmental variables, this study employs bamboo forest environmental parameters and deep learning methods to model and predict moso bamboo sap flow. The data used for analysis includes measurements of soil moisture, soil temperature, air humidity, air temperature, CO2 concentration, light intensity, and moso bamboo sap flow density, which were all collected synchronously. Initially, the study applies grey relational analysis to evaluate the correlation between multi-dimensional environmental time-series signals and the sap flow signal. This allows for identifying the degree to which different environmental factors influence the sap flow. Subsequently, the study introduces a novel combined deep learning model called FCN-GRU-TPA for modeling and prediction. The FCN-GRU-TPA model is designed to capture temporal dependencies, select relevant cross-step length information, and perform parallel computation. These advantages theoretically lead to higher prediction accuracy compared to traditional models. Finally, the robustness and generalization capability of the model are evaluated through four experimental modes, incorporating data from various time periods and multiple moso bamboo plants. The experimental results demonstrate that environmental factors such as air temperature and humidity, soil temperature and humidity, light intensity, and CO2 concentration are correlated with moso bamboo sap flow to varying degrees. The strongest correlation is observed with light intensity, followed by soil temperature and air temperature. When all six environmental factors are used as input variables, the model provides a highly accurate prediction of sap flow density. However, when only three of the most strongly correlated environmental factors are selected as inputs, the performance of the prediction slightly decreases, although the results still remain reasonable. The study further tests the model using two different ratios of modeling and prediction data—80:20 and 50:50. The 50:50 ratio produces acceptable results when all six parameters are used in the model, but the performance tends to decline when only three parameters are used for modeling. Across all four experimental modes, the average normalized Root Mean Square Error (NRMSE) is found to be less than 4.00%, and the coefficient of determination (R2) exceeds 0.90, indicating a high level of prediction accuracy. Moreover, the consistency of the model’s performance across different moso bamboo plants and various time periods further supports the reliability and robustness of the approach. The model shows that, while different environmental factors influence moso bamboo sap flow, the relationships between these factors and the sap flow are relatively stable and can be modeled effectively using the deep learning-based FCN-GRU-TPA framework. This study demonstrates that applying grey relational analysis along with the FCN-GRU-TPA model can effectively establish a predictive model for moso bamboo sap flow based on multiple environmental factors. The model not only achieves high prediction accuracy but also shows strong robustness and generalization capability, meaning it can adapt to variations in the input data and still deliver reliable results. Additionally, the model’s flexibility allows for the adjustment of the number of input variables and training sample sizes without compromising performance, making it adaptable to different experimental settings and data availability. The findings from this research provide valuable insights for further studies on the relationship between environmental variables and plant physiology, and they offer a useful reference for predicting the physiological parameters and growth behaviors of other plant species in different environmental contexts. Overall, the methods and results from this study contribute significantly to advancing the understanding of plant-water relationships and can be applied to a range of ecological and agricultural studies focused on improving plant growth models and resource management.

       

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