基于改进长短期记忆网络模型的水库库区水温模拟

    Simulation of water temperature in reservoir based on improved LSTM model

    • 摘要: 水温是影响水库水生态系统的“主因子”,了解库区水温分布及预测未来的水温变化对保护水库生态具有重要的意义。针对水库水温结构复杂、实时预测困难的技术问题,该研究通过在传统的长短期记忆网络模型(long short-term memory,LSTM)中嵌入相关分析模块自动筛选模型的特征输入,并优化输出维度,提出了一种改进的LSTM模型,旨在保证预测精度的前提下,实现库区水温分布的快速模拟及实时预测,为水库调度运行提供指导建议。将改进的LSTM模型应用于溪洛渡水库工程,研究表明:1)改进LSTM模型的均方根误差最大值为0.63,纳什效率系数最小值为0.96,表明模型整体性能较好,能够精准地捕捉数据中的长期依赖关系;2)基于改进LSTM模型的库区水温分布预测值和环境流体动力学模型(environmental fluid dynamics code,EFDC)模拟值随时间的量值分布及变化规律基本一致,两者的库区表层年际误差值为−1.19~1.04 °C,中层年际误差值为−1.06~1.68 °C,底层年际误差值为−1.28~1.07 °C,年际水温最大相对误差为8.3%;3)相较于EFDC模型多天的模拟时长,改进模型的计算时间缩短至几百秒,计算效率大幅提升,实现了水温分布的快速、实时精准预测。针对LSTM模型存在的一些限制与不足,如输出层数受实测数据的限制,难以完整预测水位波动较大的水库的水温分布等,该研究围绕输出层数和位置的合理选择、分段预测、水温传递衰减机理等方面同时提出了优化建议。

       

      Abstract: Water temperature is one of main factors affecting the water ecosystem of reservoirs. It is important to understand the distribution of water temperature in the reservoir area for protecting the reservoir ecosystem. Predicting the future water temperature changes is also of great value. With the increasing application of deep learning algorithms in reservoir ecology, this study proposed an improved long short-term memory (LSTM) model, which embedding a correlation analysis module to filter the feature inputs of the model automatically. In addition, the output dimensions module was also optimized. Through that, the aim of rapid simulation and real-time prediction of the water temperature distribution in the reservoir area was achieved, which under the premise of the prediction accuracy guaranteeing. The study would provide guidance suggestions for reservoir scheduling and operation. The improved LSTM model was applied to the Xiluodu Reservoir project, the results show that the maximum value of the root mean square error of the improved LSTM model is 0.63, and the minimum value of the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient is 0.96, which indicates that the model had a better performance overall. It also shows that the improved model can accurately capture the long-term dependence relationship in the data. By the statistical results of the prediction error values and relative error of the average, maximum and minimum water temperatures for the typical layers of the reservoir in all seasons, it is found that the maximum value of the prediction error value is 0.67 °C, which is 0.10 °C for the minimum value. It is also calculated that the maximum and minimum relative errors are 4.17% and 0.45%, respectively. That is, the maximum relative error is significantly less than 10%, which reached the expected level of the model. By further analysis, the statistical results meanwhile reveal that both the maximum prediction error value and the maximum relative error of water temperature occurred in the highest water temperature results in spring (March-May), while the relative errors of the prediction of water temperature for the typical layer in the other seasons were less than 3%. By comparing the results of improved LSTM model and environmental fluid dynamics code (EFDC) model, it could be found that the water temperature distribution and value changes rule in the reservoir of two models were basically consistent over time. The inter-annual error value is -1.19~1.04 °C for the surface water temperature, with the relative errors of -5.6%~4.9%. In terms of the middle water temperature, the inter-annual error value is -1.06~1.68 °C and the relative errors is -8.3%~6.2%. The inter-annual errors in bottom water temperatures ranged from -1.28~1.07 °C, with relative errors of -5.7%~7.1%. The above results show that all relative errors are less than 10%, which indicated that the predicted results could be accepted. Compared with the simulation time of the EFDC model which was more than a few days, the improved model shortened the calculation time to a few hundred seconds, and the computational efficiency was greatly improved. In other words, the fast and real-time accurate prediction of the water temperature distribution is realized by improved LSTM model. However, there are also some limitations and deficiencies for the LSTM model. For example, the number of output layers will be limited by the measured data, and it is difficult to predict the water temperature distribution in reservoirs with large water level fluctuations. To solve the above problems, the present study puts forward some optimization suggestions on the reasonable selection of the number and location of output layers, segmental prediction, and the attenuation mechanism of the water temperature transfer.

       

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