基于改进长短期记忆网络模型的水库库区水温模拟

    Simulating water temperature in reservoir using improved LSTM model

    • 摘要: 水温是影响水库水生态系统的“主因子”,了解库区水温分布及预测未来的水温变化对保护水库生态具有重要的意义。针对水库水温结构复杂、实时预测困难的技术问题,该研究通过在传统的长短期记忆网络模型(long short-term memory,LSTM)中嵌入相关分析模块自动筛选模型的特征输入,并优化输出维度,提出了一种改进的LSTM模型,并在溪洛渡水库工程开展了模型应用研究,结果表明:1)改进LSTM模型的均方根误差最大值为0.63,纳什效率系数最小值为0.96,表明模型整体性能较好,能够精准地捕捉数据中的长期依赖关系;2)基于改进LSTM模型的库区水温分布预测值和环境流体动力学模型(environmental fluid dynamics code,EFDC)模拟值随时间的量值分布及变化规律基本一致,两者的库区表层年际误差值为−1.19~1.04 ℃,中层年际误差值为−1.06~1.68 ℃,底层年际误差值为−1.28~1.07 ℃,年际水温最大相对误差为8.3%;3)相较于EFDC模型多天的模拟时长,改进模型的计算时间缩短至几百秒,计算效率大幅提升,实现了水温分布的快速、实时精准预测。该研究通过改进LSTM模型,实现了深水水库垂向水温的高效预测,研究结果可为分层取水设施的优化调控提供技术支撑。

       

      Abstract: Water temperature is one of main influencing factors on the water ecosystem of reservoirs. It is very necessary to predict the future water temperature for the uniform distribution in the reservoir area. Particularly, the deep learning is ever increasing in reservoir ecology. In this study, an improved long short-term memory (LSTM) model was proposed to simulate the water temperature in reservoir. A correlation analysis module was embedded to automatically filter the feature inputs of the model. In addition, the output dimensions module was also optimized. As such, the high accuracy was achieved to realize the rapid simulation and real-time prediction of the water temperature distribution in the reservoir area. Some suggestions were also provided for the reservoir scheduling and operation. The improved LSTM model was then applied to verify the simulation in the Xiluodu Reservoir project. The results show that the maximum root mean square error of the improved LSTM model was 0.63, and the minimum Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient was 0.96, indicating the better performance. The improved model was accurately captured the long-term dependence relationship in the data. The statistical parameters were included the average prediction errors and relative error, as well as the maximum and minimum water temperatures for the typical layers of the reservoir in all seasons. It was found that the maximum prediction error was 0.67 ℃, which was 0.10 ℃ for the minimum. The maximum and minimum relative errors were 4.17% and 0.45%, respectively. Among them, the maximum relative error was significantly less than 10%, fully meeting the expected level of the model. Meanwhile, both the maximum prediction error and the maximum relative error of water temperature occurred in the highest water temperature in spring (March-May). While the relative errors were less than 3% in the prediction of water temperature for the typical layer in the rest seasons. A comparison was also made on the improved LSTM and environmental fluid dynamics code (EFDC) model. There was the better consistence in the distribution of water temperature in the reservoir over time. The inter-annual error was -1.19-1.04 ℃ for the surface water temperature, with the relative errors of -5.6%-4.9%. In terms of the middle water temperature, the inter-annual error was -1.06-1.68 ℃ with the relative errors of -8.3%-6.2%. The inter-annual errors in the bottom water temperatures were ranged from -1.28-1.07 ℃, with the relative errors of -5.7%-7.1%. All relative errors were less than 10%, indicating the better prediction of the improved model. The computational efficiency was improved greatly. The simulation time was also shortened to a few hundred seconds, compared with more than a few days in the EFDC model. The rapid, real-time and accurate prediction of the water temperature distribution was realized by improved LSTM model. However, the number of output layers was limited by the measured data, leading to the large fluctuations of water level during prediction. Some suggestions were also offered on the number and location of output layers, segmental prediction, and the attenuation mechanism of the water temperature transfer.

       

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