2000—2022年中国主粮生产农药过量施用的时空演变特征及其影响因素

    Spatiotemporal evolution and influencing factors of excessive pesticide in major staple grain production of China from 2000 to 2022

    • 摘要: 明晰中国水稻、小麦和玉米生产农药过量施用的时空演变及其影响因素,对于因地制宜推进农药减量增效具有重要意义。该研究基于 2000—2022年三大主粮生产农药施用量的省级面板数据,利用损害控制模型、地理空间分析、可行广义最小二乘法模型,揭示中国三大主粮生产农药过量施用的程度、时空演变特征及其影响因素。结果表明:1)2000—2022年,中国三大主粮的农药实际使用量、最优使用量及过量程度均呈波动上升趋势,3项指标的平均水平从大到小均依次为水稻、小麦、玉米的变化特征。从区域差异来看,东部和中部地区农药过量施用水平要明显高于西部和东北地区。2)2000—2022年,水稻以及小麦和玉米产区整体的农药过量施用水平分别从轻微过量和未过量范围转变为中度过量范围,其中水稻生产中度和严重过量区域高度集聚于东部和中部地区。3)城镇化率、财政支农支出、土地流转面积、农药零增长政策、户均粮食生产规模和农户受教育程度对三大主粮生产农药过量施用均存在不同显著水平的抑制作用,而气温、自然灾害、人均GDP、粮食价格和农民人均可支配收入则存在不同显著水平的促进作用。研究结果明确了中国不同区域推进主粮生产农药减量增效工作的空间大小,为各地区政府有的放矢地开展相关工作提供了决策依据。

       

      Abstract: Pesticide overapplication has posed quite a serious threat to the ecological environment of agricultural systems in recent years. At the same time, grain production is highly concerned with ensuring national food security in China. Therefore, it is of great significance to improve the use efficiency of pesticides, according to local conditions. This study aims to clarify the spatiotemporal evolution and influence factors of excessive pesticides in the major staple grain production of China from 2000 to 2022. The provincial panel data was then selected for the pesticide application in the three major grains of rice, wheat, and corn. The degree of pesticide overapplication was also quantitatively measured, according to the damage control function model, GIS spatial analysis, and the panel economic model. The results show that: (1) There was an outstandingly fluctuant increase in the actual, optimal, and overapplication of pesticides in the production of the three major grains from 2000 to 2022. The average value was ranked in the descending order of the rice > wheat > corn. Furthermore, there was a relatively small variation in the regional pattern of the three major grains. Similar levels of pesticide overapplication were observed between the eastern and central regions, as well as the western and northeastern ones. Nevertheless, the overapplication levels in the former two regions were significantly higher than those in the latter two. (2) In the provincial spatiotemporal evolution, the overall level of pesticide overapplication in the rice production areas shifted from the slight to the moderate excess spectrum from 2000 to 2022. While the spectrum of no excess was shifted to the moderate one in the wheat and maize production areas. Moreover, the moderate and severe excess areas in rice production were highly concentrated in the eastern and central regions. (3) Six influencing factors were determined with the varying significant inhibiting effects on the pesticide overapplication, including urbanization rate, average grain production scale per household, education level of farmers, fiscal expenditure on agriculture, cultivated land transfer areas, and the policy of zero growth in pesticide application. Conversely, the five factors shared varying significant promoting effects, including the temperature, natural disasters, GDP per capita, grain prices, and per capita disposable income of rural residents. The space size was clarified to reduce the application of pesticides for its use efficiency in the three major grains production. The finding can also provide the decision-making on the ecological environment in different regions of China.

       

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