2000—2022年中国主粮生产农药过量施用的时空演变特征及其影响因素

    Spatio-temporal evolution characteristics and influencing factors of excessive pesticide application in China’s major staple grain production from 2000 to 2022

    • 摘要: 明晰中国水稻、小麦和玉米生产农药过量施用的时空演变及其影响因素,对于因地制宜推进农药减量增效具有重要意义。本文基于 2000—2022年三大主粮生产农药施用量的省级面板数据,利用损害控制模型、地理空间分析、可行广义最小二乘法模型,揭示了中国三大主粮生产农药过量施用的程度、时空演变特征及其影响因素,结果表明:(1)2000—2022年,我国三大主粮的农药实际使用量、最优使用量及过量程度均呈波动上升趋势,三项指标的平均水平都呈现水稻>小麦>玉米的变化特征。从区域差异来看,东部和中部地区农药过量施用水平要明显高于西部和东北地区。(2)2000—2022年,水稻以及小麦和玉米产区整体的农药过量施用水平分别从轻微过量和未过量范围转变为中度过量范围,其中水稻生产中度和严重过量区域高度集聚于东部和中部地区。(3)城镇化率、财政支农支出、土地流转面积、农药零增长政策、户均粮食生产规模和农户受教育程度对三大主粮生产农药过量施用均存在不同显著水平的抑制作用,而气温、自然灾害、人均GDP、粮食价格和农民人均可支配收入则存在不同显著水平的促进作用。研究结果明确了我国不同区域推进主粮生产农药减量增效工作的空间大小,为各地区政府有的放矢地开展相关工作提供了决策依据。

       

      Abstract: In order to ensure national food security, grains production is highly concerned by the Chinese government, however the ecological environment of the agricultural system has been greatly neglected. As a result, the problem of pesticide overapplication in grain production is quite serious. Therefore, aiming at reduce the application of pesticide and improve its use efficiency according to local conditions, it is of great significance to focus on the degree of pesticide overapplication in the production of the three major grains of rice, wheat and corn in China, and to clarify their spatio-temporal evolution characteristics and influence factors in different regions. Based on provincial panel data of pesticide application in the production of the three major grains from 2000 to 2022, by using the damage control function model, GIS spatial analysis, and the panel economic model, this paper quantitatively measures the degree of pesticide overapplication, reveals the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics, and discovers the influence of various factors respectively, in the three major grains production. The results show that:(1) From 2000 to 2022, there is an obvious fluctuant increase in the three indictors of the actual application, optimal application and overapplication degree of pesticide in the production of the three major grains, and the average value of the three indicators shows the characteristics of rice > wheat > corn. From the perspective of regional differences, pesticide overapplication levels of the three major grains are similar in the eastern and central regions, so are in the western and northeastern regions. However, the overapplication levels in the former two regions are significantly higher than that in the latter two regions. (2) From the perspective of provincial spatio-temporal evolution, the overall level of pesticide overapplication in rice production areas shifts from the spectrum of slight excess to moderate excess from 2000 to 2022, while that of wheat and maize production areas changes from the spectrum of not excess to moderate excess. Moreover, the moderate excess and severe excess areas in rice production are highly concentrated in the eastern and central regions. (3) The six factors, urbanization rate, average grain production scale per household, education level of farmers, fiscal expenditure on agriculture, cultivated land transfer areas, and the policy of zero growth in pesticide application, have varying significant inhibiting effects on pesticide overapplication in the three major grains production. Conversely, the five factors, temperature, natural disasters, GDP per capita, grain prices, and per capita disposable income of rural residents, have varying significant promoting effects. The results of this paper can clarify the space size of the work to reduce the application of pesticide and improve its use efficiency in the three major grains production in different regions of China, and provide a decision-making basis for local governments to carry out that work.

       

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