中国城市群设施农用地时空演变与布局分型

    Spatiotemporal evolution and layout classification of facility agriculture land in urban agglomerations of China

    • 摘要: 发展设施农业是践行大食物观的必由路径,把握设施农用地的时空演变与布局分型特点,是优化设施农用地布局、保障国家食物保供战略顺利实施的必然要求。该研究以“十四五”规划中的19 个国家级城市群为研究区,立足人口-用地-地域(人-地-域)三维分析框架,运用探索性空间分析、修正引力模型及核心-边缘分析等方法,揭示2013—2021 年设施农用地的时空演变规律并识别布局分型。结果发现:1)2013—2021 年,中国城市群设施农用地共缩减44.60 万hm2,整体呈现东北和中部地区规模较小、南方普遍高于北方地区的分异特征。2)以2018 年为节点,中国城市群设施农用地分布由高度集中化转向轻微分散化。在不同时期,高-高集聚与低-高集聚类的市域单元主要分布在东部城市群,空间依附特征显著,其余单元相对较少,且分布分散。3)中国城市群设施农用地布局分型以人增地减分散型和人地双增集中型为主,两者占比达73.68%。其中,人增地减分散型城市群设施农业发展相对滞后,产业引力逐渐衰弱,人地双增集中型城市群通过要素集聚促进规模化经营。研究表明,近10 年来中国设施农用地规模缩减严重,与人口变化呈现空间双背离趋势,近期布局策略由集中供应向风险分散转型,开始注重大中城市常年菜地建设。以城市群体系为依托,未来应注重人地矛盾,合理权衡本地生产和外埠供应,科学布局城市群设施农业以提升供应链韧性。

       

      Abstract: Facility agriculture is one of the most crucial ways to implement the Greater Food concept in modern agriculture. The spatiotemporal evolution and distribution of facility agriculture land can also be essential to optimize its spatial layout for the successful implementation of national food security strategies. In this study, a three-dimensional classification framework of “Human-Land-Region” was constructed for facility agriculture land in urban agglomerations of China. The spatial layout of facility agriculture land was also balanced to match with the labor intensity and amount of facility agriculture land. In this study, the study area was taken as the 19 national-level urban agglomerations in the 14th Five-Year Plan. The parameters were then calculated, including the land area per capita area, geographic concentration, and the Moran’s I of the 19 urban agglomerations for facility agriculture during the period of 2013—2021. Then the spatiotemporal evolution of facility agriculture land was obtained to evaluate the three-dimensional framework in urban agglomerations on the global scale. The typical cities were determined to combine the three-dimensional evaluation, geographic zoning, and the development level of urban agglomerations. Finally, four urban agglomerations were identified as the typical cases, such as the Central Plains, Chengdu-Chongqing, the Yangtze River Delta, and the Mid-southern Liaoning. The modified gravity model and core-edge analysis were also applied to explore the gravitational relationship of facility agriculture among cities within these four urban agglomerations. The facility agriculture land was realized at a downscaled scale from the whole situation to the inner part of typical urban agglomerations. The results indicate that the facility agriculture land in urban agglomerations decreased by 446 000 hectares between 2013 and 2021. There was the regional divergence, in which the Northeast and Central regions shared smaller scales of facility agriculture land, while the South generally had more extensive areas than the North. From 2018 onwards, the distribution of facility agriculture land was shifted from a highly centralized to a slightly decentralized pattern. The urban agglomerations with "high-high clustering" and "low-high clustering" were predominantly found in the eastern regions in various periods, indicating significant spatial dependence. While other areas showed more dispersed distributions. According to the "Human-Land-Region" analysis framework, the layout of facility agricultural land in urban agglomerations was divided into four types: "Growing population with reduced and decentralized lands", "Growing population with increased and centralized lands", "Shrinking population with reduced and centralized lands" and "Shrinking population with reduced and decentralized lands". Urban agglomerations with the first type were found in the relatively slow development in facility agriculture, with a weakening industry pull. While those with the second type were achieved large-scale operations in the concentration of resources. Two main types were accounted for a total of 73.68%, which was the leading type of facility agricultural land in urban agglomeration. There was the severe reduction in the scale of facility agriculture land over the past decade, with a spatial divergence from population changes. Recent trends showed a shift from the centralized supply towards risk diversification. Perennial vegetable plots can be expected to establish in the medium and large cities. The balance between local production and external supply can be strategically designed for facility agriculture within urban agglomerations, in order to enhance the resilience of the supply chain.

       

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