基于InVEST-FLUS模型的岩溶区和非岩溶区“三生空间”碳储量对比

    Carbon Storage Comparison of ‘Production-Living-Ecological Space’ in Karst and Non-Karst Areas Based on the InVEST-FLUS Model

    • 摘要: 探究“三生空间”转化及碳储量的变化,对区域生态保护和“双碳”目标的实现具有显著意义。以重庆市岩溶区和非岩溶区为研究区,基于“三生空间”动态度、转移矩阵、InVEST模型和FLUS模型,明确“三生空间”时空变化特征和碳储量转化;预测未来不同发展情景的碳储量值。结果表明:(1)岩溶区生态空间占主导,分布最广的林地生态空间逐渐增加;非岩溶区生产空间占主导,分布最广的农业生产空间缓慢萎缩。林地生态空间和农业生产空间与其他空间类型的转化是“三生空间”转化的主要方式。(2)研究期间,“三生空间”面积变化影响其碳储量值。岩溶区碳储量呈增加趋势,且林地生态空间的碳储量占比高于58.94%。非岩溶区碳储量呈缓慢减少趋势,农业生产空间碳储量最多(321.53~332.47×104 t)。生活空间碳储量呈缓慢增加趋势,非岩溶区增加速率高于岩溶区。(3)除自然发展情景外,两种情景下碳储量值会进一步增加,且生态保护情景下岩溶区林地生态空间碳储量最多;耕地保护情景下非岩溶区农业生产空间碳储量最多。研究成果可为改善区域生态环境、优化国土空间布局以及提升区域碳储存能力提供科学依据。

       

      Abstract: Investigating the transformation of the ‘Production-Living-Ecological Space’ and the changes in carbon storage is of great significance for regional ecological protection and the achievement of the ‘dual carbon’ goals. Using the karst and non-karst area of Chongqing as the research areas, and based on the dynamic degree of the ‘Production-Living-Ecological Space’, transfer matrix, InVEST model, and FLUS model, this study identifies the spatiotemporal variation characteristics and carbon storage transformation of the ‘Production-Living-Ecological Space’ and predicts the carbon storage values under different future development scenarios. The results indicate that: (1) Karst area is dominated by ecological space, with the most extensive forested ecological space gradually increasing; non-karst area is dominated by production space, where the most extensive agricultural production space is slowly shrinking. The transformation between forested ecological space and agricultural production space with other types of spaces is the primary mode of ‘production-living-ecological’ space transformation. (2) During the study period, changes in the area of ‘production-living-ecological’ space affected its carbon storage values. Karst area showed an increasing trend in carbon storage, with the forested ecological space accounting for more than 58.94% of the carbon storage. Non-karst area exhibited a slow decrease in carbon storage, with the agricultural production space having the highest carbon storage (321.53~332.47×104 tons). The carbon storage of living space showed a slow increasing trend, with a higher rate of increase in non-karst area than in karst area. (3) Apart from the natural development scenario, carbon storage values would further increase under the two scenarios. Under the ecological protection scenario, the karst area’s forested ecological space would have the highest carbon storage; under the farmland protection scenario, the non-karst area’s agricultural production space would have the largest carbon storage. The research findings can provide a scientific basis for improving the regional ecological environment, optimizing the layout of national land and space, and enhancing regional carbon storage capacity.

       

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