生物甲醇裂解制氢一体化系统及生命周期评价

    Integrated bio-methanol cracking hydrogen production system and its life cycle assessment

    • 摘要: 为了对生物甲醇裂解制氢一体化系统进行环境影响定量化评价和系统经济性动态分析,以无锡市某中小型甲醇裂解制氢厂为典型案例,构建系统生命周期模型,评估环境影响潜值并分析综合环境影响,同时进行经济可行性评估。结果表明,制氢阶段对环境影响最为显著,在大气酸化潜值(acidification potential,AP)、非生物资源耗竭潜值(abiotic depletion potential,ADP)和人体毒性潜值(human toxicity potential,HTP)三类环境影响类别中均占比70%以上,在HTP环境类别中占比高达90.47%。其次对环境有较大影响的是甲醇生产阶段和甲醇运输阶段。ADP、HTP和全球变暖效应(global warming potential,GWP)是对总环境影响最大的三类环境影响类别。环境影响敏感性分析表明,减少甲醇运输油耗和制氢电耗可有效减轻环境负面影响。生物甲醇生产模式的转变对碳排放减少影响显著,采用氢能运输可进一步降低排放。从经济角度来看,系统的投资回收期(payback period,PBP)为12.16 a,净现值(net present value,NPV)为211.87万元,内部收益率(internal rate of return,IRR)为13%。系统的盈利能力较高,资金流动性较强并且经济性较好。原料成本、碳价格和氢能源价格是影响经济可行性结果的关键因素,在氢能源价格较高和碳价提升的情景下,系统的经济竞争力显著增强。

       

      Abstract: In the pursuit of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality, optimizing energy structures and transitioning industries toward low-carbon solutions are urgent priorities. Hydrogen energy plays a pivotal role in China’s energy transition and sustainable development. Among the emerging technologies, the bio-methanol cracking hydrogen production system offers notable advantages in terms of cost-effectiveness and scalability. However, research on the environmental impact and economic assessment of this technology remains in its early stages, with limited quantitative assessments of its environmental impacts and dynamic economic analyses. To address these gaps, it is essential to conduct a thorough quantitative analysis of environmental impacts at each stage of the technology’s lifecycle, coupled with a dynamic economic evaluation. These assessments are critical for informed planning and strategic deployment of bio-methanol cracking hydrogen production systems. As a case study, a medium-sized methanol cracking hydrogen production plant in Wuxi, China, was selected to facilitate a comprehensive evaluation of the integrated system’s environmental and economic performance. A life cycle environmental impact assessment model was developed for the system, enabling the calculation of environmental impact potentials at each stage. This facilitated a comprehensive evaluation and analysis of the system’s overall environmental footprint. Furthermore, the system’s economic feasibility was assessed through economic evaluation indicators. The results indicated that the hydrogen production stage contributed the most significant environmental impact, accounting for over 70% in categories such as Acidification Potential (AP), Abiotic Depletion Potential (ADP), and Human Toxicity Potential (HTP). Notably, in the HTP category, it accounted for as much as 90.47%. The methanol production and transportation stages were also identified as substantial contributors to the environmental impact. ADP, HTP, and Global Warming Potential (GWP) were the three categories that contributed most to the overall environmental impact, while the least contribution came from Ozone Depletion Potential (ODP). Sensitivity analysis showed that minimizing fuel consumption during methanol transportation and reducing electricity usage in the hydrogen production process were effective strategies for mitigating negative environmental impacts. Depending on the stage and scenario, the system’s life cycle carbon emissions varied between 0.71 and 12.18 kg CO2 eq/kg H2. Among the contributing factors, the bio-methanol production mode had the most significant influence on life cycle carbon emissions, while using hydrogen energy for methanol transportation led to a notable reduction in emissions. The costs of the integrated bio-methanol cracking hydrogen production system were primarily composed of raw materials expenses, fixed capital investment, and operation and maintenance costs, while its revenue primarily stemmed from hydrogen fuel sales. From an economic perspective, the system had a Payback Period (PBP) of 12.16 years, a Net Present Value (NPV) of 2.1187 million yuan, and an Internal Rate of Return (IRR) of 13%. It demonstrated strong profitability, good liquidity, and favorable economic performance. Key factors influencing the system’s economic feasibility included raw material costs, carbon pricing, and hydrogen energy prices. Across various scenarios, the NPV ranged from -5.68×107 CNY to 8.64×107 CNY. Particularly in scenarios with higher hydrogen energy prices and increased carbon prices, the system’s economic competitiveness was significantly enhanced. An increase in hydrogen energy prices enhanced the system’s revenue potential, while higher carbon pricing provided strong economic incentives for adopting low-carbon technologies, further improving its financial viability.

       

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