Abstract:
In the pursuit of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality, optimizing energy structures and transitioning industries toward low-carbon solutions are urgent priorities. Hydrogen energy plays a pivotal role in China’s energy transition and sustainable development. Among the emerging technologies, the bio-methanol cracking hydrogen production system offers notable advantages in terms of cost-effectiveness and scalability. However, research on the environmental impact and economic assessment of this technology remains in its early stages, with limited quantitative assessments of its environmental impacts and dynamic economic analyses. To address these gaps, it is essential to conduct a thorough quantitative analysis of environmental impacts at each stage of the technology’s lifecycle, coupled with a dynamic economic evaluation. These assessments are critical for informed planning and strategic deployment of bio-methanol cracking hydrogen production systems. As a case study, a medium-sized methanol cracking hydrogen production plant in Wuxi, China, was selected to facilitate a comprehensive evaluation of the integrated system’s environmental and economic performance. A life cycle environmental impact assessment model was developed for the system, enabling the calculation of environmental impact potentials at each stage. This facilitated a comprehensive evaluation and analysis of the system’s overall environmental footprint. Furthermore, the system’s economic feasibility was assessed through economic evaluation indicators. The results indicated that the hydrogen production stage contributed the most significant environmental impact, accounting for over 70% in categories such as Acidification Potential (AP), Abiotic Depletion Potential (ADP), and Human Toxicity Potential (HTP). Notably, in the HTP category, it accounted for as much as 90.47%. The methanol production and transportation stages were also identified as substantial contributors to the environmental impact. ADP, HTP, and Global Warming Potential (GWP) were the three categories that contributed most to the overall environmental impact, while the least contribution came from Ozone Depletion Potential (ODP). Sensitivity analysis showed that minimizing fuel consumption during methanol transportation and reducing electricity usage in the hydrogen production process were effective strategies for mitigating negative environmental impacts. Depending on the stage and scenario, the system’s life cycle carbon emissions varied between 0.71 and 12.18 kg CO
2 eq/kg H
2. Among the contributing factors, the bio-methanol production mode had the most significant influence on life cycle carbon emissions, while using hydrogen energy for methanol transportation led to a notable reduction in emissions. The costs of the integrated bio-methanol cracking hydrogen production system were primarily composed of raw materials expenses, fixed capital investment, and operation and maintenance costs, while its revenue primarily stemmed from hydrogen fuel sales. From an economic perspective, the system had a Payback Period (PBP) of 12.16 years, a Net Present Value (NPV) of
2.1187 million yuan, and an Internal Rate of Return (IRR) of 13%. It demonstrated strong profitability, good liquidity, and favorable economic performance. Key factors influencing the system’s economic feasibility included raw material costs, carbon pricing, and hydrogen energy prices. Across various scenarios, the NPV ranged from -5.68×10
7 CNY to 8.64×10
7 CNY. Particularly in scenarios with higher hydrogen energy prices and increased carbon prices, the system’s economic competitiveness was significantly enhanced. An increase in hydrogen energy prices enhanced the system’s revenue potential, while higher carbon pricing provided strong economic incentives for adopting low-carbon technologies, further improving its financial viability.