哈长城市群耕地利用转型与县域城乡融合耦合协调的时空演进及驱动因素

    Spatiotemporal evolution and driving factors in coupling coordination of cultivated land use transformation and county-level urban-rural integration in Harbin-Changchun urban agglomeration

    • 摘要: 耕地利用转型与县域城乡融合是彼此协同的有机体,揭示二者耦合协调的时空演进及驱动因素对于促进耕地高效利用和县域城乡融合高质量发展具有重大意义。基于2011—2021年哈长城市群63县(县级市)的统计数据,采用熵值法和耦合协调度模型分别测算耕地利用转型指数、县域城乡融合发展水平及二者的耦合协调度,在分析耦合协调度时空演进特征的基础上,进一步采用空间统计、空间计量模型探究二者耦合协调度的空间自相关特征及驱动因素。结果表明:1)2011—2021年哈长城市群耕地利用转型与县域城乡融合的耦合协调度呈上升态势,并在空间上显现出均衡演化的格局。此外,从耦合协调度的分类来看,中度协调区域数量仍然较少,仅占比31.746%,高度协调区域则未能出现,表明二者的耦合协调度仍有待提升。2)2011—2021年哈长城市群耕地利用转型与县域城乡融合耦合协调度的全局Moran’s I显著为正,且数值集中在区间0.184,0.385内,呈现出明显的空间正相关特征。局部地区也已形成空间分化,高高集聚区呈北移趋势,主要分布在松原、绥化、齐齐哈尔等地,低低集聚区的分布较为稳定,位于延边朝鲜族自治州。3)哈长城市群耕地利用转型与县域城乡融合的耦合协调度受到自然环境、市场条件、政府因素等的综合影响。其中,坡度、财政分权对耦合协调度影响的直接效应及间接效应均为负,人均GDP、产业高级化指数、农业机械化水平的直接效应及间接效应均为正。最后,从把握耕地利用转型与县域城乡融合的耦合机制、探索耦合协调度提升的差异化路径、关注影响耦合协调度提升的具体因素等方面,提出对策建议。

       

      Abstract: A coupling coordination can often be found in the cultivated land use transformation and the urban-rural integration at the county level. It is of great significance to reveal the spatiotemporal evolution and driving factors between them, in order to promote the cultivated land and the high-quality urban-rural integration. The Harbin-Changchun urban agglomeration is one of the most important grain production regions in China. However, there was the serious degradation of cultivated land quality and the aggravation of soil erosion in this region in recent years, due to the influence of irrational agricultural production and cultivated land use. The urban-rural integration can be confined to the large-scale and intensive use of cultivated land. It is still lacking on the mutual promotion between the transformation of cultivated land use and the urban-rural integration at the county level. Taking the Harbin-Changchun urban agglomeration as a typical area, this study aims to explore the coupling coordination between them. The statistical data of 63 counties (county-level cities) was collected from 2011 to 2021. The entropy and the coupling coordination degree model were used to measure the cultivated land use transition index, the level of urban-rural integration development at the county level, as well as the coupling coordination degree. The results show that: 1) An upward trend was observed in the coupling coordination degree of cultivated land use transformation and urban-rural integration at the county level from 2011 to 2021. A balanced evolution pattern was achieved in space. In addition, there were the relatively small areas of moderate coordination after the classification of coupling coordination. The moderate coordination areas were accounted for only 31.746%. There was no highly coordination area. The coupling coordination degree was expected to be improved. 2) There was the significantly positive global Moran's I for the coupling coordination degree of cultivated land use transformation and urban-rural integration. The specific values were concentrated in the interval 0.184, 0.385, indicating the outstanding positive correlation. Spatial differentiation was also formed in some areas. The high-high agglomeration areas were distributed mainly in Songyuan, Suihua, and Qiqihar Cities. While there was the relatively stable distribution of low-low agglomeration areas in the Yanbian Korean Autonomous Prefecture. 3) The coupling coordination degree of cultivated land use transformation and urban-rural integration was depended mainly on the natural environment, market conditions, and government factors. Among them, there were the negative effects of the slope and fiscal decentralization on the coupling coordination degree. While the positive significance was found in the direct and indirect effects of per capita GDP, industrial upgrading index and agricultural mechanization level. Finally, the countermeasures were also proposed to explore the coupling mechanism between cultivated land use transformation and urban-rural integration at the county level. The differentiated path of coupling coordination was constructed to explore the influencing factors on the improvement of coupling coordination.

       

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