耦合深度学习和智能体建模方法的农村居民点整治潜力模拟

    Simulation of rural residential consolidation potential coupled with deep learning and agent-based modelling

    • 摘要: 当前农村居民点整治主体的行为建模主要依赖线性效用函数和专家先验知识,针对现有研究方法主观干涉过多,模拟结果不确定性较大等问题,该研究通过耦合深度学习算法和智能体建模框架构建了农村居民点整治潜力智能模拟模型。模型能够在顾及区域自然环境、社会经济、土地利用等多因素非线性作用影响的情况下,对区域整治潜力数量规模和空间布局进行协同自动模拟。研究以广州市作为案例区域进行了实证研究,结果表明:1)政府智能体模块对整治潜力数量规模预测的R20.9875,平均相对误差为6.95%,平均绝对误差为22.16 hm2;农民智能体模块的整体准确度为82.31%,对农村居民点整治潜力初步识别的精确率为83.68%,召回率为80.27%,表明模型具备较好的模拟性能。2)根据模拟结果,广州市2018—2035年农村居民点整治可释放潜力951.84 hm2,多分布在基础设施条件落后、生活环境质量较差、土地结构较为单一的地区,城中村和偏远山村是潜力分布相对集中的区域,模拟结果最终的空间分布格局与土地利用常识框架基本一致。研究总体上表现了较强的建模可靠性和结果可行性,可为统筹推进全域土地综合整治提供科学准确的数据支撑。

       

      Abstract: Subject behavior modeling of rural residential consolidation (RRC) can rely mainly on the linear utility function and prior knowledge of experts at present. These approaches have the high subjective interference, leading to hardly capture the nonlinear influence of natural, and socio-economic aspects of RRC. It is very necessary to reduce the uncertainty of simulation. In this study, an intelligent simulation model of RRC potential was constructed to couple the deep learning under the framework of agent modeling. The decision factors system and role connotations of county-level governments and farmers were constructed in the process of rural residential land consolidation in China. 37 decision indicators were selected to represent the decision-making of government agents in the aspects of urban-rural development, government finance, agricultural development, food security, location and topography, and distribution characteristics of rural settlements and cropland. 38 decision indicators were selected to represent the decision-making of farmer agents in the aspects of social economy, nature, land use and landscape pattern. As such, the light gradient boost machine and long short-term memory algorithms were utilized to construct the agent decision-making simulation modules for the governments and farmers, respectively. An agent interaction scheme was then developed using the seed region growth algorithm. Collaborative and automatic simulation was realized for the quantitative scale and spatial layout of regional consolidation potential. A case study was conducted to evaluate the effectiveness and performance of the improved model in the Guangzhou City, Guangdong Province, China. The data was collected from the county-level units in the study area. Among them, the data from county-level units in Hunan Province was also introduced to expand the sample size of the government agent module. 70% of the samples were used for the model training and 30% were used for the validation and test. The experimental results show that the government agent module was firstly achieved the determination coefficient of R2=0.9875 and the average relative error of 6.95% to predict the quantitative scale of consolidation potential. Meanwhile, the farmer agent module demonstrated an overall accuracy of 82.31% to identify the rural residential land consolidation potential. Specifically, there were a precision rate of 83.68% and a recall rate of 80.27% in the initial identification of consolidation potential. Secondly, the simulation results show that the consolidation potential of rural residential areas in Guangzhou from 2018 to 2035 was about 951.84 hm2, which was mostly distributed in the areas with backward infrastructure conditions, poor living environment quality and relatively single land structure. Urban and remote mountain villages were relatively concentrated in the areas of potential distribution. In addition, the areas with spatially connected and flat terrain were more likely to be included in the consolidation scope. The simulation was basically consistent with the general framework of land use patterns. In conclusion, the strong modeling reliability and feasibility can provide the scientific and accurate data support to the land consolidation.

       

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