基于复杂系统协同理论的气候智慧型农业发展水平评估

    Evaluation of the development level of climate smart agriculture based on the theory of complex system synergy

    • 摘要: 气候智慧型农业(climate smart agriculture, CSA)是全球应对气候变化和粮食安全双重挑战的新兴农业发展模式,其核心在于追求“稳产增收-气候适应-减缓排放”3个维度的帕累托最优。评估CSA发展水平对中国农业可持续发展具有重要意义。该研究基于复杂系统协同理论,围绕上述3个维度构建CSA发展水平评估框架,对2013—2022年中国粮食主产区CSA各维度发展水平及气候智慧指数(climate smart index, CSI)进行定量评估,并分析各维度下多目标间的协同与权衡关系。结果表明:1)2013—2022年中国粮食主产区CSI由0.052提升至0.403,整体处于较低水平但呈上升趋势。CSA3个维度得分分别由0.150、0.119和0.110上升至0.624、0.589和0.568,波动特征与CSI变化趋势相一致。稳产增收得分总体高于气候适应和减缓排放2个维度,表明粮食主产区处于CSA发展初级阶段。2)中国粮食主产区CSA发展水平呈现显著的空间非均衡性,空间格局由分散走向集聚,区域差距逐渐缩小;华北、东北及华中粮食主产区逐步形成连片气候智慧区;大部分省份3个维度发展趋势具有一致性,且发展水平逐年上升。3)CSA3个维度下多目标间的相关关系以协同为主导,多目标协同程度影响3个维度发展的均衡性和CSA整体发展水平。其中,目标“农业经济韧性-生态碳汇”协同性最强,而目标“粮食产能-生态碳汇”表现为显著权衡,其余目标间相关关系各有其区域特性。研究区应从分阶段推进技术适配、实施差异化政策及优化目标协同管理3个方面进行CSA发展优化。研究结果可为CSA发展水平评估提供新框架,为缓解CSA多维权衡提供参考,有助于推动中国农业绿色转型及气候变化背景下粮食安全战略的实施。

       

      Abstract: Climate smart agriculture (CSA) can realize the pareto optimality in the three dimensions of “productivity & income - climate adaptation - emission mitigation”, particularly for the rural livelihoods and national food security. The development level of CSA can be evaluated in sustainable agricultural practices. In this study, an assessment framework was constructed for the development level of CSA from the three dimensions, according to the complex system collaboration. The development levels of CSA were quantitatively evaluated in each dimension, such as the climate smart index (CSI), in the major grain-producing areas from 2013 to 2022. There were trade-off relationships among multiple objectives in each dimension. The results show that: 1) The CSI of the major grain producing areas increased from 0.052 to 0.403 from 2013 to 2022, which was at a lower level but with an upward trend. The scores in the three dimensions of the CSA increased from 0.150, 0.119, and 0.110 to 0.624, 0.589, and 0.568, respectively. There were fluctuating characteristics in line with the trend of the CSI. The score of Productivity & Income was generally higher than that of Climate Adaptation and Emission Mitigation. It infers that the major grain producing areas were in the initial stage of CSA development. 2) The development level of CSA in the major grain producing areas shared a significant spatial non-equilibrium, with the spatial pattern shifting from dispersal to agglomeration. The regional gap was gradually narrowing. The contiguous climate-smart areas were observed in the major grain producing areas in North, Northeast, and Central China. There was a consistent trend of the three dimensions in the majority of the provinces, with the level of development increasing each year. 3) The correlation between multiple objectives under the three dimensions of CSA was dominated by synergy, where one dimension often benefited the rest. The degree of synergy in the multiple objectives was dominated by balancing the development of the three dimensions and the overall development level of CSA. Among them, “agricultural economic resilience ecological carbon sink” shared the strongest synergy, while the objective of “food production capacity - ecological carbon sink” shared a significant trade-off. There was a regional correlation between the other objectives. Region-specific technologies were adopted to accelerate the CSA for the differentiated policy interventions using regional disparities. Synergistic objective management was optimized to integrate the agroecology with precision farming. The assessment framework was proposed for the CSA development in sustainable agriculture. The key synergies and trade-offs were identified to mitigate the multidimensional conflicts in the CSA implementation, green transformation, and food security under climate change. The finding can also serve as a strong reference for the developing economies.

       

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