松嫩高平原黑土区耕地资源安全的驱动机制分析

    Analysis of driving mechanism of cultivated land resources security of black soil region in Songnen high plain

    • 摘要: 为了深入剖析影响区域耕地资源安全驱动因子的作用机理,研究区域耕地资源安全驱动机制。该文以松嫩高平原黑土区巴彦县为例,运用Matlab编程,采用遗传算法对神经网络模型进行改进,结合相关分析法,识别影响耕地资源安全的关键性因子及其与之相关的因子,应用多元回归分析和完全二次回归分析方法,阐明影响因子间的协同作用关系,进而揭示其对耕地资源安全影响的作用机理和驱动机制。结果表明:1)影响研究区耕地资源安全的协同作用关系中,不同影响因子间的协同作用正向和负向交互进行,且不同因子间协同作用大小也不尽相同;2)影响研究区耕地资源安全的自然因素、社会经济因素、生态因素中,自然因素对研究区耕地资源安全起促进作用,社会经济因素和生态因素起抑制作用,且社会经济因素对研究区耕地资源安全的抑制作用最强,生态因素的抑制作用次之;3)在主要影响因子中,土壤质地对耕地资源安全的促进作用最强,pH值次之,黑土层厚度的促进作用最弱,而高程对耕地资源安全抑制作用最强,水土流失量仅次之,氟的抑制作用最弱。该研究成果可为黑土区耕地资源保护及耕地资源的合理利用提供参考。

       

      Abstract: Abstract: For profoundly anatomizing the effect mechanism of driving factors which affecting cultivated land resources security in study area, studying the driving mechanism of cultivated land resources security in study area, providing scientific basis to ensure the health of cultivated land and to protect the national food security. This paper takes black soil region of Bayan county in Songnen high plain as study area, using Matlab programming, adopting Genetic Algorithm to improve Neural Networks and combining correlation analysis, recognizing the prime factors and getting the related to the sensitive influential factors of cultivated land resources security, clarifying the effect mechanism and driving synergistic of influential factors and revealing the driving mechanism of the cultivated land resources security through multiple regression analysis and complete quadratic regression analysis. It turns out: The synergistic effect relations of cultivated land resources security in study area. The factors play a significant impact to the cultivated land resources security, and they have different synergistic effects in different influential factors. The synergistic effects get positive and negative interactions and have variants strength of different influential factors. The natural factors play a catalytic role in the security of cultivated land resources in study area. The socio-economic factors and ecological factors play an inhibition role in the security of cultivated land resources in study area, and socio-economic factors play inhibition strongest, followed by ecological factors. Effects of socio-economic factors play the most remarkable role on cultivated land resources security, natural factors secondly, the role of ecological factors not obvious. Among the main factors, soil texture plays the strongest role in promoting cultivated land resources security,the strength is 0.5654, next is pH value, the strength is 0.2563, while black soil thickness plays the weakest role, the strength is 0.0662. Altitude plays the strongest role in inhibiting cultivated land resources security, the strength is 0.3721, next is water and soil erosion, the strength is 0.3580, while fluorine plays the weakest role, the strength is 0.0131. The results provide a reference to protect cultivated land resources of black soil area and to rational use cultivated land resources.

       

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