中国省域土地利用可持续性评价及时空格局特征

    Evaluation of regional land use sustainability and its spatial-temporal pattern among provinces in China

    • 摘要: 为了揭示中国省域尺度土地可持续利用程度及其时空格局特征。该研究运用基于"国家公顷"改进的生态足迹模型构建土地利用可持续性系数,对中国31个省区1998-2008年土地利用可持续状态进行综合评价,借助ArcGIS 10.0软件平台,绘制出研究期内中国土地利用可持续程度的空间格局地图,并以此进行时空分析。结果表明:从时序变化特征看,各地区土地利用可持续性总体偏低且出现不同程度的赤字现象,近71%的省区土地利用可持续性呈上升态势但增速不平衡,部分省区变动幅度较大;从空间格局及其演变特征看,土地可持续利用程度从高到低排序依次为东部沿海地区>东北地区>中部地区>西部地区,局部省区虽有变化,但总体格局变幅较小,土地利用处于Ⅱb、Ⅲc、Ⅲb的省区分别下降了4、6和13个百分点,而处于Ⅲa的省区则上升了23个百分点,上升的省区中大都为中西部地区,土地利用可持续性的空间格局不断优化且呈良性演变趋势;人均生态足迹的本底基数较大,且人均生态足迹和人均生态承载力的变化率相差较小是导致土地利用产生赤字的主要因素,人口较快增长也是一个重要因素,贸易和区域互补可为减少或消除土地利用产生的赤字提供重要的解决路径。该研究可为中国省域尺度土地开发与可持续利用战略、政策与对策制定提供科学依据和决策参考。

       

      Abstract: Abstract: Land sustainable use is the core content and important basis of regional sustainable development. We made a quantitative evaluation of regional land use sustainability, and the research results can provide a scientific basis for making strategies, policies, and countermeasures of land sustainable use. In order to explore the degree of land sustainable use and its spatial-temporal pattern in Chinese provinces, with the ecological footprint model based on an improved "national hectare," this study constructed a land use sustainability coefficient, and evaluated the state of sustainable land use of Chinese provinces, with a time span from 1998 to 2008. We adjusted the unit of measurement of yield factor and equivalence factor of ecological footprint model, that is, we adjusted a global hectare to a national hectare, and further calculated a per capita ecological footprint and a per capita ecological capacity. We finally stated a land use sustainability coefficient for using a per capita ecological capacity divided by the sum of a per capita ecological footprint and a per capita ecological capacity. Using the evaluation results as the basis, with a ArcGIS 10.0 software platform, this paper drew a spatial-temporal pattern map of the degree of land sustainable use in Chinese provinces, and analyzed the spatial data. The results showed that: From the temporal variation characteristics, the degree of land sustainable use was generally relatively low in Chinese provinces, and there appeared to be a land-use deficit phenomenon in different degrees, the degree of land sustainable use showed a rising trend for nearly 71% of Chinese provinces, but their growth was not balanced, and some of them showed larger changes. From the spatial pattern and its evolution characteristics, the degree of land sustainable use in the eastern coastal regions, northeast regions, central regions, and western regions showed a progressively declining trend. Although the local provinces of China had some changes, the overall spatial pattern showed minor changes. Those provinces in which the degree of land was in Ⅱb, Ⅲc and Ⅲb were decreased by 4, 6, and 13 percentage points. On the contrary, in these provinces in which the degree of land was in Ⅲa, were increased by 23 percentage points, and were mostly in the central and western regions. The spatial pattern of the land use sustainability coefficient presented a continuous optimization and showed a benign development trend. However, the cardinal number of a per capita ecological footprint was higher, and the rate of change of a per capita ecological footprint and a per capita ecological capacity had a smaller gap. These two reasons became a major factor of a land use deficit, and a rapid growth of population was also an important factor. Trade and regional complementarities can solve this problem. This study provides a scientific basis and decision-making reference for creating strategies, policies, and measures of land development and sustainable use in Chinese provinces.

       

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