贾建英, 贺楠, 韩兰英, 张强, 张玉芳, 胡家敏. 基于自然灾害风险理论和ArcGIS的西南地区玉米干旱风险分析[J]. 农业工程学报, 2015, 31(4): 152-159. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1002-6819.2015.04.022
    引用本文: 贾建英, 贺楠, 韩兰英, 张强, 张玉芳, 胡家敏. 基于自然灾害风险理论和ArcGIS的西南地区玉米干旱风险分析[J]. 农业工程学报, 2015, 31(4): 152-159. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1002-6819.2015.04.022
    Jia Jianying, He Nan, Han Lanying, Zhang Qiang, Zhang Yufang, Hu Jiamin. Analysis on drought risk of maize in Southwest China based on natural disaster risk theory and ArcGIS[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering (Transactions of the CSAE), 2015, 31(4): 152-159. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1002-6819.2015.04.022
    Citation: Jia Jianying, He Nan, Han Lanying, Zhang Qiang, Zhang Yufang, Hu Jiamin. Analysis on drought risk of maize in Southwest China based on natural disaster risk theory and ArcGIS[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering (Transactions of the CSAE), 2015, 31(4): 152-159. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1002-6819.2015.04.022

    基于自然灾害风险理论和ArcGIS的西南地区玉米干旱风险分析

    Analysis on drought risk of maize in Southwest China based on natural disaster risk theory and ArcGIS

    • 摘要: 为更为科学合理地评价玉米干旱风险,该文选用西南四省市60个气象站1961-2012年逐日常规气象观测资料及玉米农业生产相关资料,基于自然灾害风险理论,从危险性、暴露性、脆弱性、防灾能力4个因子出发,建立了西南地区玉米干旱灾害风险评估模型,并用ArcGIS对西南地区玉米进行干旱风险区划与分析。结果表明:1)西南地区玉米春旱主要发生在Ⅰ区大部、Ⅱ区、Ⅲ区,夏旱主要发生在Ⅰ区北部、Ⅲ区和Ⅳ区大部、Ⅴ区、Ⅵ区,全生育期干旱高危险区和次高危险区主要位于Ⅰ区和Ⅱ区部分、Ⅲ区;2)高暴露区和次高暴露区集中在Ⅱ区和Ⅲ区,高脆弱区和次高脆弱区主要位于Ⅱ区东部、Ⅳ区和Ⅴ区部分,次低抗灾能力区和低抗灾能力区主要位于Ⅱ区和Ⅳ区部分;3)西南地区玉米高风险区和次高风险区主要位于Ⅲ区,Ⅰ区、Ⅱ区、Ⅳ区和Ⅴ区局部;中度风险区,主要集中在Ⅴ区和Ⅵ区,其他分区都有不同范围分布;次低风险区和低风险区主要位于Ⅰ区中部、Ⅱ区西南部、Ⅳ区南部和东部。该研究成果将为西南玉米生产风险管理及可持续发展提供一定理论依据。

       

      Abstract: Abstract: Southwest China is an important region for maize production, accounting for about 15% of the total maize area and output in China. There were abundant rainfall and humid climate in Southwest China. But in recent years, severe drought events often occurred there, which caused huge damage to local social economy and attracted widespread interest. Agro-drought risk analysis is helpful for improving the ability of regional disaster management and reducing potential drought risk. In this paper, the daily meteorological observations from 60 stations and the data related to maize agricultural production in Southwest China during the period of 1961-2012 were used. Based on natural disaster risk theory, maize drought risk assessment model was established from four factors: hazard, exposure, vulnerability, drought prevention and mitigation, and maize drought risk was zoned and analyzed in Southwest China. It showed that maize spring drought mainly occurred in most of DistrictⅠ, DistrictⅡand District Ⅲ, maize summer drought appeared in north of DistrictⅠ, most of District Ⅲ and DistrictⅣ, DistrictⅤ and District Ⅵ. High and sub high drought hazard zones of maize in whole growth period were mainly located in District Ⅲ, parts of DistrictⅠand DistrictⅡ. High and sub high exposure zones were mainly located in DistrictⅡ and District Ⅲ; high and sub high vulnerable zones mainly were distributed in east of DistrictⅡ, parts of District Ⅳand DistrictⅤ; low and sub low drought prevention and mitigation zones were located in parts of DistrictⅡand District Ⅳ. The results showed that maize drought high risk and sub high zones in Southwest China were mainly located in District Ⅲ, small parts of DistrictⅠ, District Ⅱ, District Ⅳand DistrictⅤ, in the majority of which maize drought hazards in whole growth period were high or sub high, maize area ratios were higher than maize average area ratio in Southwest, and maize yield per unit was higher than maize average yield per unit in Southwest. Moderate risk zones were mainly located in DistrictⅤand District Ⅵ, in the majority of which maize drought hazards in whole growth period were moderate, maize area ratios, yield fluctuations and yield levels were comparable to maize average productivity level in Southwest. Low and sub low risk zones were mainly distributed in central of DistrictⅠ, southwest of DistrictⅡ, south and east of District Ⅳ, where maize drought hazards in whole growth period were low, and maize productivity levels were different. The study provides a theoretical basis for the maize production risk management and sustainable development in Southwest China.

       

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