殷冠羿, 刘黎明, 起晓星, 袁承程, 卓东. 基于物质流分析的高集约化农区环境风险评价[J]. 农业工程学报, 2015, 31(5): 235-243. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1002-6819.2015.05.033
    引用本文: 殷冠羿, 刘黎明, 起晓星, 袁承程, 卓东. 基于物质流分析的高集约化农区环境风险评价[J]. 农业工程学报, 2015, 31(5): 235-243. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1002-6819.2015.05.033
    Yin Guanyi, Liu Liming, Qi Xiaoxing, Yuan Chengcheng, Zhuo Dong. Environmental risk assessment in high intensive farming area based on material flow analysis[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering (Transactions of the CSAE), 2015, 31(5): 235-243. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1002-6819.2015.05.033
    Citation: Yin Guanyi, Liu Liming, Qi Xiaoxing, Yuan Chengcheng, Zhuo Dong. Environmental risk assessment in high intensive farming area based on material flow analysis[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering (Transactions of the CSAE), 2015, 31(5): 235-243. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1002-6819.2015.05.033

    基于物质流分析的高集约化农区环境风险评价

    Environmental risk assessment in high intensive farming area based on material flow analysis

    • 摘要: 该文将经济-环境系统研究领域的物质流分析方法运用在高集约化农区的环境风险评价中,构建了高集约化农区环境风险指数模型,并以湖南省桃江县为案例区,分析测算了2001-2012年的物质输入-输出变化,对高集约化农区环境风险进行了初步评价。结果显示:1)以人口压力、农业产值、耕地面积和农业技术水平为主要驱动力,农产品的生产增加,但物质投入和物质输出指标在12 a间波动上升,物质投入的增加导致了污染排放的同步增长;2)人均物质投入、人均物质产出持续提高,资源生产率和环境效率降低,创造单位农业经济产值的资源消耗和污染排放量有所下降;3)总体环境风险在2004年之后增加,但以2010为转折点开始得到有效控制;4)基于物质流分析的环境风险评价方法可较全面的反映高集约化农区环境风险的演变规律及结构特点,较好的揭示环境风险的发展程度及变化特征。

       

      Abstract: Abstract: This study applied the material flow analysis (MFA) method to investigate the changes of resource input-pollution output flows from 2001 to 2012 in a high-intensive farming area in Taojiang County, China. In order to get an integrated index of total environmental risk, we built a comprehensive environmental risk assessment model on the basis of MFA. Direct material input (DMI), domestic processed output(DPO), material input per capita(IMC), material output per capita(IMD), material productivity(MP), environmental efficiency (EE) and production stock(Stock) were taken into the material flow analysis. DMI was divided into three large classes (solid, gases and liquid input) and eight subclasses including fertilizer (M1), pesticide(M2), mulching film (M3), O2 consumed by livestock respiration (M4), O2 consumed by soil respiration(M5), O2 consumed by crop respiration(M6), irrigation water(M7) and diesel (M8). DPO was divided into three large classes (solid, gases and liquid output), and nine subclasses including livestock manure(N1), mulching film residue(N2), pesticide leaching(N3), fertilizer leaching(N4), CO2 discharged by soil respiration(N5), CO2 discharged by livestock respiration(N6), CO2 discharged by crop respiration(N7), CH4 discharged by livestock(N8), straw burning contaminants(N9), and diesel burning contaminants (N10). In addition, Stock was divided into four classes: crop products (P1), animal products (P2), forest products (P3), and aquatic products (P4). The results showed that due to the effect of population,economic output, arable area and agricultural technology, the stock increased by 56.52%,while material input and output index changed synchronously, which indicated that the increase of material input had brought the augment of pollution emissions. DMI increased from 52.10 million tons in 2001 to 65.05 million tons in 2012. Irrigation water was the main part of DMI. Among the gases input, M5 was the main part, which occupied 40.96% of gases consumption, while M6 and M4 accounted for 30.32% and 28.72%, respectively; among the solid input, M1 was the main part accounting for 98.92% of solid input, pesticide(M2) and mulching film(M3) occupied 0.65% and 0.51% of solid input, respectively. DPO increased from 17.75 million tons in 2001 to 22.56 million tons in 2012. Material discharging into the air was the main part of DPO, which averaged 1.58 million tons per year, while solid output and material discharging into water averaged 0.44 and 0.059 million tons per year, respectively. Among the gases output, N7, N9 and N5 accounted for 51.74%, 41.62% and 29.67% of total gases output, respectively. Moreover, the amount of CO2 discharging averaged 1.05 million tons per year (derived from N5, N6, N7, N9 and N10), which occupied 97.02% of the total gases output. Among the solid output, N1and N2 accounted for 99.98% and 0.02%, respectively. Among the material discharging into water, fertilizer and pesticide averaged 0.06 and 0.004 million tons per year, respectively. IMC increased from 73 to 85 t/cap, and IMD increased from 25 to 29 t/cap; MP reduced from 0.03 to 0.01 t/yuan, and EE decreased from 0.009 to 0.005 t/yuan, which implied the material consumption per cap and pollution output per cap was still increasing, and economy increase was highly relevant to the consume of resources and discharge of pollution, while environmental efficiency had been improved to a small degree. The environmental risk index increased from 0.04 to 1.00, indicating that the whole environmental risk turned worse over the past 12 years, though it has been controlled slowly after 2010. The assessment method based on MFA can comprehensively reflect the evolution and structural characteristics of environmental risk in high intensive farming area, and can preferably reveal the development extent and variation of environmental risk.

       

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