马树庆, 王琪, 陈凤涛, 徐丽萍, 张铁林, 于海, 纪玲玲. 春旱背景下春玉米苗情对产量的影响及减产评估模式[J]. 农业工程学报, 2015, 31(z1): 171-179. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1002-6819.2015.z1.020
    引用本文: 马树庆, 王琪, 陈凤涛, 徐丽萍, 张铁林, 于海, 纪玲玲. 春旱背景下春玉米苗情对产量的影响及减产评估模式[J]. 农业工程学报, 2015, 31(z1): 171-179. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1002-6819.2015.z1.020
    Ma Shuqing, Wang Qi, Chen Fengtao, Xu Liping, Zhang Tielin, Yu Hai, Ji Lingling. Impact of spring maize seeding growth on yield and assessment models of production cut under background of spring drought[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering (Transactions of the CSAE), 2015, 31(z1): 171-179. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1002-6819.2015.z1.020
    Citation: Ma Shuqing, Wang Qi, Chen Fengtao, Xu Liping, Zhang Tielin, Yu Hai, Ji Lingling. Impact of spring maize seeding growth on yield and assessment models of production cut under background of spring drought[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering (Transactions of the CSAE), 2015, 31(z1): 171-179. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1002-6819.2015.z1.020

    春旱背景下春玉米苗情对产量的影响及减产评估模式

    Impact of spring maize seeding growth on yield and assessment models of production cut under background of spring drought

    • 摘要: 为建立基于苗情的玉米春旱指标和春旱减产即时定量评估模式,2010-2011年春季在中国东北玉米主产区开展玉米分期播种-土壤水分控制试验。每年设3个播期和4个水分胁迫处理,用雨棚和人工灌水控制土壤水分,观测土壤湿度、玉米出苗期、保苗率、7叶前后的株高、叶龄、生物量和单产。采用回归方法分析玉米产量对出苗期、保苗率及幼苗长势的响应,建立春旱评估模式。 结果表明,在春旱背景下,玉米产量与出苗期、出苗率、苗期株高、叶龄和生物量相关性显著。出苗期延迟导致产量下降,出苗期每推迟1d,玉米单产下降2.9%;出苗率下降10%,玉米减产9.2%;株高、叶龄和植株干质量每下降10%,玉米单产依次下降13.4%、11.1%和5.5%。用出苗期、保苗率、叶龄和株高等苗情要素建立玉米春旱损失评估模式,可以定量评估(或预测)春旱对玉米产量的影响,模式检验和实际应用表明评估误差在6.5%左右。该研究提供多个评估模式,便于根据不同时间和不同观测要素选择适当的模式开展玉米春旱减产的即时定量评估,为制定减灾对策和开展玉米春旱损失保险业务提供科学依据。

       

      Abstract: Abstract: Northeast China is a major production area of spring maize. As the slight change of precipitation in spring, the spring drought for maize is frequent. To establish maize spring drought index and quantitative assessment modes based on maize seeding growth, water stress-sowing date field experiments were carried out in the spring of 2010 and 2011 in a maize product area(Yushu city)of the Northeast China. 4 water treatments (no drought, slight, moderate, severe) and 3 sowing date treatments (normal, relatively late and late, each interval for ten days) were designed in the experiment, and soil moisture controlled by the canopy and artificial irrigation. The soil moisture, maize emergence date, emergence rate, leaf age, plant height, biomass in the range of 7th leaf and yield were observed. The spring drought assessment modes were established by analyzing the response of yield to emergence date and seeding growth with regression method. The results showed that the yield of maize was significantly correlated with the emergence date, emergence rate, seeding height, leaf age and seeding biomass. The relationships modes between the relative yield and relative value of the seedling growth factor most as linear functions. Delayed seeding would reduce maize yield, which will be declined by 2.9% when the seeding date was delayed by a day. When emergence rate was decreased by 10%, the yield will be dropped by 9.2%. If the height,leaf age and plant dry quality was reduced by 10%, the yield would drop by 13.4%, 11.1% and 5.5%,respectively. The spring drought cut assessment model which can quantitatively assess or forecast the spring drought impact on the yield by emergence date, emergence rate, leaf age and plant dry quality,and the assessment error was about 6.5%, application test also proved that the effect is batter. The relation modes of relative yield and seedling date delayed days, leaf age difference,emergence rate and seedling dry mass were significant, and the physical and biological meaning of such yield evaluation modes were clear with a high statistical reliability. 2a experimental data fitting test and 3a antual application, the errors are within ±6%. This method is simple and objective which can be applied to the real-time quantitative assessment of drought cut through simple's observation and calculation of spring drought, and provides scientific basis for mitigating disaster and developing the business of the drought insurance.

       

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