部门经济运行机制的理论模型和实证分析——自组织理论的应用
The Theoretical Model and Pragmatic Analysis of Department Economic Operating Mechanism——An Application of Self-organization Theory
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摘要: 应用自组织理论研究中观层次的部门经济系统,建立了一个反映供需关系的非线性微分方程模型体系。这个模型体系包含4个基本方程:(1)用价格因子作修正的Logstic方程——需求方程;(2)用价格因子作修正的Cobb—Doglas方程——供给方程;(3)包含折旧形式和折旧率的供需平衡方程;(4)以市场调节的商品量与计划调节的商品量之比RA为随机变量的概率守恒方程。应用这个模型体系,以系统动力学方法模拟求解,对河南省机械电子工业系统的行业结构调整作实证分析,取得了可操作的比较满意的结果。Abstract: This paper applied the theory of self-organization to the study of department economic system of the mid-hierarchy to establish a non-linear differential equation model system to reflect the relation between the supply and the demand. This model system consists of four basic equations: (1) the Logistic equation corrected for the price factor; (2) the Cobb-Douglas equation corrected for the price factor; (3) the supply - demand equlibrium equation comprised the depreciation form and the depreciation factor; (4) the probability conservation equation using as its random variable RA, a ratio of the commodily volumn adjusted by marketing to that adjusted by planning.A set of simulation solutions are obtained by the SD method through this model system. The adjustment problem of branch structure for the mechanical-electronic industry system in Henan province was analysed. An operable satisfactory result was achieved.