中国农村地区可持续发展能源战略研究(Ⅱ)——中国农村地区中长期能源需求预测研究

    Study on Energy Stratagem of Sustainable Development in Rural Area of China (Part Ⅱ)——Forecast Study on Medium and Long Term Energy Demand in Rural Area of China

    • 摘要: 农村地区能源需求预测属于区域能源需求预测的范畴,主要突出地域的概念。预测中国农村地区能源消费需求形势,将有助于制订农村可持续发展的能源战略。本文在现有资料分析的基础上,通过科学分析测算,提出了农村地区中长期能源需求的常规方案和加强可再生能源开发利用的方案。预计到2010年和2050年,农村地区居住人口为7.7亿和4.8亿,即时采用加强方案,对商品能源的需求量折标煤分别为10.24亿t和16.32亿t。

       

      Abstract: Rural energy forecast is belong to the category of regional energy forecast, the concept of regional energy demand should be emphasized. To forecast the demand of energy consumption in rural area of China will be useful to draw out the rural energy stratagem with rural sustainable development. This paper brings forward the conventional and strengthening renewable energy utilization precept, which is based on the analysis of materials in existence and analysed and calculated scientifically. The energy consumption in rural region is mainly divided into two components, used for economic development and farmer households living. Following the progress of the state key project “Small Rural CityTownship Construction” implementation, the most of rural population will be urbanized locally. Expected by the year of 2010 and 2050, there will be about 770 and 480 millions of pepole living in rural area. on the instant to the strengthening precept, the total commodity energy demand is about 1024 and 1632 Mtce respectively. If the energy consumption in village and town industries is not included in two precepts, the total energy demand in rural area could be 970~1080 Mtce in 2050. The coal consumption will be 31.7 % of the total energy consumption in rural area.

       

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